LC

I went with 'deep recession' Why? I dunno.

The fun part was reading this post prior to looking at the news/market reaction. I was thinking - "Ok, JPow says what we thought he was gonna say, SPY must be dipping into the 3800s?" Then I look and its RALLYTIME GOGO. This is why guessing at macroeconomics and the market reaction is right up there with "pin-the-tail-on-the-donkey" as a top tier game.

Happy Thanksgiving all

Definitely a talent of Buffett that doesn't get talked about enough - he is a great judge of character.

Love it. Dipping below the 170s? I use bear spreads and then buy a crazy OOM put for cheap, in case it really crashes hard.

Sorry if a dumb question, but how does bitcoin solve for extending credit and managing the associated credit risk?

Thanks - appreciate the context. Looks like when WB mentioned a few years ago he’s be buying as many SFHs as possible….he went about it in a Berkshire-appropriate way.

To my knowledge tax credits are purchased in advance by a bank (state street being the biggest at least as of a few years ago). The developer needs access to cash at day 0, not over the next ten years. So they sell the credits. Now once State street or whomever owns the credits, they probably make a market on them. How those credits are bought/sold around in the secondary market, and how they are valued (and to whom they are most valuable) is more of my question.

Wow - yeah they did. Do you know the broad strokes of the underlying economics? Is it just that they buying these tax credits for say 80cents and redeeming at par? Some brief research on Lihtc's indicate they are computed annually? based on the underlying property's performance (occupancy). So is BRK also making some underlying bet on affordable multi-unit housing?

(sold) covered calls on LPX

I’ve got an open mind for sure and I wish blockchain would solve some obvious problems (property title is one that always jumps to mind- title insurance is such a racket). But the flip side is it’s not 1983 and technology disperses at a much faster pace today. Perhaps an era of high interest rates will focus efforts towards productive/realistic use cases, rather than pipe dreams.

Bitcoin has been around for 10 years+ now. Forget as a currency- I still haven’t seen a popularized use case for blockchain in general.

Do you think SPY puts are the best way to do so? I've been using QQQ and IWM puts

Pretty cool - I liked reading the "about" page which is really his ultimate takeaways after the project.

Picked up some VRE $15 calls for a buck, and also some VRE around 14.XX

Been an ugh year. Missed the energy trade late 2021 and got into it only in early 2022, and held my nose with MSFT which has been a goober drag on the portfolio. Been trading pretty successfully which has mitigated a good amount of damage, overall down ~3.5% YTD which I'll take.

So if earnings suck, the market will drop If earnings are good, the fed will jack up rates…and the market will drop. am I getting this right?

Empress gin is good- try monkey 47 which is really great. espresso martinis over here!

Assume Apple doesn't hold up - anyone thinking about the effects to Berkshire?

Do you own anything currently at super high valuations (let's call it 35+ times your estimate of normalized earnings)? I at really bad at selling - I would have been the guy selling Gallagher at $80/sh to my future disappointment - so I am curious how you think about near-term "overvaluation" when it comes to the sell decision. Or, do you buy based on valuation and sell based on business viability (e.g. only selling once the underlying business has been permanently compromised)?

I don't buy (yet, at least) the death of globalization. Global politics has had plenty of setbacks over the past 30 years. But I think underlying demographics are too strong to ignore. Billions of people have had a taste of a higher standard of living, and that genie is hard to put back in the bottle. I think the only way governments can meet this desire is by playing nice together.

Models and bottles as they say! And to answer your question, I would remove everything from my role except building the actual model. Right now I have to jump thru so much red tape to get my team access to data, to explain to other parties how the model is built/functions, where the model breaks down, etc. I can understand why it’s important but to me it’s just not that interesting. But it’s the price I pay to have access to data and technology I wouldn’t otherwise have (even if I had 100mm in the bank)

I would, but may change some of the environment. I like building statistical models and seeing how well they perform. I’d do that (or at least be thinking about it) whether I’m being paid or not. I could do without having all the red-tape surrounding the execution of the models, though.

Do you have a long term view of pricing? I fear prices won't stay elevated as (either or both) new capacity comes online and China resumes exporting.

damn cubs, 68? Get it buddy! Starting strength is great. Resistance training is one of the best things u can do as you age. the best advice my folks ever gave me was health = wealth. Both in terms of quality of life, and the longer you live, the longer your $$ compounds!