LC

Do we know who the swap counterparty is? I'd imagine a Canadian bank?

I voted 6. Frankly I think it took them too long to correct the errors of the 2010s- and i think they are selectively fair/friendly/honest. I do believe they are talented

You think so? Everyone I talk to is more excited about 5% high yield savings accounts and their 2.75% mortgages. Stocks are dead, long live stocks.

Weren't we having this same conversation 10 years ago? At this point, Apple should just buy Citi and rebrand it Applebank if they really want to get into the lending game.

Wow- a true legend passed. RIP

Yep. I've only recently gotten comfortable staying around 100% invested regardless of the market environment, and using margin (rather than a cash balance) to go above/below depending on macro conditions and how confident I am in my ideas. It started in COVID with such giant sell offs as if humanity was ending, and Greg's posts on how he thinks about his overall portfolio, and then even recently the post on how Buffett used leverage during his partnership days. Someone will always have a reason to predict financial apocalypse, and yet here we all are.

Does it have anything to do with Indian regulatory environment? I thought non resident Indians had some additional hurdles to investing in India particularly if they want control ownership. I am no expert by any means so may be totally off base here.

Saluki, did you grow up in the Bronx? Just curious, as I am no stranger to gun hill road. On rent control - I agree. The model for a while now has been rent stabilization and 80/20 buildings. Generally most people agree you need market rate units to carry the rest. True rent control is probably gone - but rent stabilization which gets escalated when a unit turns over, that is OK with me. Not a lot of broke NYC landlords.

Agreed. I bought more today. BIAL is a great asset.

Where’d you eat in Denver? I may have to add it to my restaurant list!

A recession is defined as 2 quarters of negative GDP growth, OR anytime any metric I choose goes down so I can smugly say I told you so.

I took a loss on the FHN deal. Wild how external forces (industry in disrepair, regulators with axes to grind) prevents two willing companies from merging. C’est La vie. Gratefully a sub 1% flyer position.

What was your sell rationale on UMG?

Not sure as I write options on IBKR. Selling calls?

One of my more successful trades (emphasis on trade) this year has been selling OOM calls on LPX. Long the stock and periodically short and then re-buy OOM calls depending on the market. I'm actually hoping to get called out of the position as I'd rather own the REIT rather than the builders or suppliers.

I don't have transformation experience, but two pieces of advice: -need to have a team in place you can rely on -sometimes, a public execution is necessary

Every year the FRB manages the CCAR process, including publishing stress macro scenarios, under which the banks estimate their potential losses (and therefore capital needs). Well if I recall, the Fed didn't include their own massive interest rate hikes in their own stress scenarios. So you'll have to excuse me if I don't give a hot damn about FRB expectations.

Not sure I agree. The difference is this: Despite home prices crashing in 07/08, fundamental demand never dropped. People still need to live somewhere. Today, many corporations don't need office space. Fundamental demand may have shifted.

What is the end game for office here? Conversions to residential? That works in a handful of marquee locations, but not for the majority. And I imagine it's incredibly expensive: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/27/business/what-would-it-take-to-turn-more-offices-into-housing.html And office buildings look like crap. Character-less panes of mirrored glass and uniform windows. Thoughts and prayers that corporate tenants return? Well why would they? It's been almost 3 years of nationwide work-from-home or semi-WFH. I don't see that changing. It's cheaper, arguably more efficient, and well liked by most employees. And look at the cities themselves - they are blown out with crime and homelessness. Know anyone dying to move to SF these days? I don't. Someone way smarter than me has a great opportunity on their hands if they can figure out a (cheap) way to revitalize old office bldgs and make it a cultural part of urban life.

What retailers are you looking at, Sanj? Overstock doesn't seem to fit the bill you describe in your post.

Everyone “sees disruption coming” for these types of companies because they’re incredibly asset light.

Speaking of which: https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/train-carrying-ethanol-minnesota-derails-catches-fire-forcing-evacuations-small-town

If you think the banks HTM book is a mess, wait till you look at the government. I don't think banks are such a black box. Yes, there is the question of loan quality through the cycle. But I think investors have decent insight into the loan book between all the resources available. Banks holding 2.xx% mortgages is really a nothing burger for the big boys. The Feds hold way more. So they are all in the same boat. And the Feds control policy. Another way to think of it: the entire world had 10 years of ZIRP to "disrupt" the banks: ultimately ended in failure for the incumbents. That's the sign of a decent business if you ask me.

I bucket my holdings: Berkshire/Cash Equiv: 24% Fairfax: 16% Banks: 6% (Citi, BAC, DB in that order) Real Estate: 21% Mainly the "Greg" portfolio + Clipper, but also stuff like PSTL O&G: 9% Mainly Petrobras, Oxy, Vitesse, Black Stone Other stuff makes up about 20%: MSG, Overstock, Nintendo, Tobacco, Davita, SNC Lavalin 5% is a merger arb bucket The portfolio got a bit out of control the past year or so with the volatility in the market - I plan on consolidating a lot down over the coming months.

Special dividends here we come, I suppose? These regulators are politicians first, and stewards second. On both sides of the border.