LC

I hear you. For a few of the names I mentioned 50% lower is not that far back in time. I have “nibbled” on HD, V, and FB. The others need to be significantly cheaper for me to really load up. If I don’t get fills, I will sit it out. I have been fully invested since 1997 so it’s not as if I am missing out. Just riding the elevator back down and back up again (perhaps). Well, maybe I was totally off on this one ;D ;D ;D I put another nibble in for V this morning.

I read somewhere (maybe this thread) that CDC finally is distributing 1MM test kits. This will help much more to gain a clear picture how the virus is spreading and severity.

Al, glad to have your input. I agree on the quality component. Rather buy top shelf stuff when the liquor store is going out of business, rather than well liquor. However, I am slightly less pessimistic. I am not as confident we will see 50% corrections from here, so I am averaging my cowardice on the way down. I think now is the time for those who say, "I've always wanted to own XYZ, but it's always so expensive!" to at least nibble. At least, that is what I am doing.

Chinese economic production is estimated to have slowed 25% due to the virus, which appears to be waning in China. So there's that. Though the economy is still operating at about 25% below its usual levels, activity should be fully restored by the end of April, Francoise Huang, senior economist at Euler Hermes, predicted in a note to clients. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china/as-new-cases-of-coronavirus-subside-in-china-wuhan-told-to-go-back-to-work-idUSKBN20Y03W SP500 is down about 23% off the recent high, for context.

When too euphoric or too depressed, I find it helpful to seek out news from the other end of the spectrum, as a moderating factor: https://nypost.com/2020/03/11/china-shuts-all-16-temporary-coronavirus-hospitals-in-wuhan/ In a dramatic sign that the coronavirus crisis is improving in China, the last two of 16 temporary hospitals in the epicenter city of Wuhan have been shut down, according to a report. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china/as-new-cases-of-coronavirus-subside-in-china-wuhan-told-to-go-back-to-work-idUSKBN20Y03W Some vital industries in Wuhan, the Chinese city at the epicenter of the coronavirus epidemic, were told they can resume work on Wednesday, a day after President Xi Jinping visited there for the first time since the outbreak began. https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesasquith/2020/03/11/when-can-we-expect-travel-to-return-to-normal-apple-reopens-90-of-china-stores-and-wuhan-closes-the-last-temporary-coronavirus-hospital/#47c18e705bc5 Today Apple has reopened 38 of their 42 stores on the mainland that were previously all shuttered. Wuhan which was the centre of the outbreak, and entirely quarantined to prevent the spread of the outbreak has just closed the last of their temporary Coronavirus hospitals. Note: there are still new cases and deaths in China ; but, well, it doesn't seem "as bad" as it was weeks ago. At least from an un-informed mainstream news perspective. It's been about 3 months since the virus was active in China - let's say another 3 months for containment, and another 3 on top of that to "return to normal". So maybe a 6-9 month period. I feel this is optimistic now as I am assuming no divergent events that I am wholly unqualified to speculate on (new viral strains, viral jumps to other species e.g. cattle, birds etc.)

Futures down 4.X% to about 2600. Personally thinking of selling call spreads.

Downwards if I had to bet. Some other news: -March madness 2020 without fans -NBA 2020 season cancelled -Tom Hanks & wife are infected?

Seems more appetizing to hand-sanitize with overproof liquor in that case ;D Tonight is probably a red wine night. Some aglianico if I can find it.

Sold OOM Berkshire calls.

Well said.

Sold some PM puts in the morning and bought them back in the early afternoon.

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/health-environment/article/3074469/coronavirus-south-korea-cuts-infection-rate-without Update from S Korea: South Korea has seen a steady decrease in new coronavirus cases for four consecutive days, despite being one of the worst-affected countries outside China, although global attention has shifted towards outbreaks in Italy and Iran. The steady decrease in cases has been attributed to a variety of factors, including mass testing, improved public communications and the use of technology. Extensive testing of members of the Shincheonji Church of Jesus, which was linked to more than 60 per cent of the country’s cases, has been completed. South Korea has also come up with creative measures, including about 50 drive-through testing stations across the country, where it takes only 10 minutes to go through the whole procedure. Test results are available within hours. South Korea has been proactive in providing its citizens with information needed to stay safe, including twice daily media briefings and emergency alerts sent by mobile phone to those living or working in districts where new cases have been confirmed. Details about the travel histories of confirmed patients are also available on municipal websites, sometimes with breakdowns of a patient’s residence or employer, which can make them identifiable individually, leading to concerns about privacy.

Who could have imagined this effect of income inequality?

France built a giant wall but coronavirus just went around it ;D ;D

Coronavirus is like pasta. Asians invented it, but the Italians spread it.

Tonight is a night for crown royal.

No shame, I picked up a 2-4 of corona this weekend in solidarity.

When, last week? ;D ;D ;D

I don't have specific SP500 levels but currently I'm at about 20% cash and will continue to buy as/if the market falls. My guess is at the pace of, if the index hits 2000 I'd probably be out of dry powder.

brk, pm , v

bummer.

Been coors for the last few days. Waiting for trout season as well. Fly rods getting itchy.

3000 deaths in China, and its on the decline. But yea, exponential growth for the win! Or do you have some data that suggests Americans are more prone to death than Chinese folks? Forget China- the case in Italy is most illustrative because we can trust the reporting. The fact that deaths in Italy does not appear exponentially horrific is a very good sign.

Well, a few things: Frankly, what do WB, RD, or HM know about viral infections? I would trust doctors on this message board before I would Warren Buffett if I showed symptoms. Secondly, that's exactly what they should be saying. They are public figures and are not informed professionals - anything they say could be misleading at best. And thirdly I wouldn't even say there's so much conviction on this board. I think people are extrapolating the few known data points in the spirit of 'better safe than sorry'.