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Everything posted by LC
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Here's one the much older folks have probably experienced: When you're "young" (50s, 60s) start looking at single-story living (no stairs) with restrooms within walking distance. There's an age when you hate being seated close to the restrooms, there's another age when you greatly appreciate it
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Move over to IBKR and enjoy the 1.5% margin rate on JPY. Boom, free 10%. Or free 10 stories to use your building analogy
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Biggest regret was probably getting married too young. Neither of us wanted kids, we always kept our finances totally separate, but being labelled "married", we both stuck around in a decaying relationship far longer than if we were just "partners". Now I think unless there's a practical reason to get legally married (kids, some financial/tax/citizenship angle), there's no real benefit. Looking forward the next ten years, I'm in my mid thirties and so these are probably the last years I'll have to be fully physically capable. I imagine in my 50s I'll have to tune it down a bit, so I aim to travel and have as many physical experiences (skiing, climbing, etc.) as possible. Although I see some old guys on the chair lift in their 70s, still ripping it. And the older guys posting here about their climbs to Everest and such...it gives me hope!
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I am back after 2 years of miserable job and inactivity for investing
LC replied to muscleman's topic in General Discussion
Don't take it personally - this is what just what management does when they have some alterior motive. A new boss, looking to chop heads. Or a management team forced to cut staff and needing to come up with reasons. Welcome back, I hope you (and your family) are healthier. Life is a journey for sure...gotta deal with the bumps sometimes. -
78% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck
LC replied to Blake Hampton's topic in General Discussion
Keeping the mortgage in Canada allows you to deduct the interest- SD mentioned it earlier “smith maneuver” -
78% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck
LC replied to Blake Hampton's topic in General Discussion
Well, keeping the mortgage means you keep the interest tax deduction. I think the benefit is: 1- you end up slightly ahead on the spread 2- you get a lot more flexibility, i think, because treasuries are way more liquid. -
78% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck
LC replied to Blake Hampton's topic in General Discussion
That's what I'm doing here. Renting the 2.75% place and buying a fixer-upper (bored - need a project). -
78% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck
LC replied to Blake Hampton's topic in General Discussion
Assume you have the cash to pay off the note, why not instead buy a 30 year treasury, use the coupons to pay the mortgage? Plus you still have some spread for taxes or profit? -
Tender offer for a huge chunk of the outstanding - and the shares already trade above the tender price. Interesting situation. Do you have a long term thesis or is this a trade?
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78% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck
LC replied to Blake Hampton's topic in General Discussion
doesn’t just go for boating- I spend a lot on travel and the activities I enjoy. I won’t be able to ski with the same intensity in 10-20 years, so I’ll spend 10k today to maximize that experience while I can. -
Well done on the TPC trade. Looks even more torqued than Aecon in retrospect.
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My guess is Warren and Charlie had their proxies doing the whip cracking - at least when they were younger. They spend all day doing financial analysis- if they look at their wholly owned businesses and see their labor or materials or whatever costs are X% higher than a competitor, don’t you think they will somehow prod that? These guys are shrewd- they just do it in a way that doesn’t come back to them.
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Vestis looks like a debt paydown story. They are doing some cost cutting which may or may not work, but I imagine the real story is paying down all the debt they are saddled with post-spin. That value will accrue to equity holders over time.
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Not hedging the yen, but buying in JPY. Ross- I also sold puts on DFIN this morning.
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Both, or neither? I look at the last call it 5 years earnings just to get my bearings on the business. Then I look forward - are prospects better, worse, or similar to the past few years? If I think the prospects are way better (something like Fairfax in 2021), but the market is pricing as if prospects are middling, well maybe there's an interesting investment. Ultimately it comes down to what the business will earn in the future, vs. what you pay today. We know today's price, the rub is in estimating future earnings. I think prior earnings history does provide some baseline at least to start estimating.
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Movies and TV shows (general recommendation thread)
LC replied to Liberty's topic in General Discussion
Oh wow - my brother got married there ages ago Good ole Tarrytown - hopefully Westchester treated your family well! -
Buffett is smart. The best time to raise money is when you don't need it. Especially if it costs 1%. That said yeah I agree he is probably buying more Japanese equities.
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The million Canadian dollar question: are investors here buying, holding, or selling? What % if your portfolio is Fairfax compared to say, 6 or 12 months ago? Partly rhetorical - but is Fairfax as easy of a “buy” today, versus 6, 12, 24 months ago?
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He puts the block in blockheaded.
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How is the Fed going to cut rates with inflation over 3%?
LC replied to ratiman's topic in General Discussion
Another way is debt forgiveness- forced or voluntary. -
I take a more sobering view. I would argue 1-3 are closer to cash return businesses and only 4 can arguably be a reinvestment/growth story. I own tobacco and O&G - the thesis for both is similar: the market is pricing in a faster terminal decline than I am. But there is not really growth, and I would be a seller when they are valued closer to a market multiple. Gambling, I haven't done much research there so I'll reserve comment China - You have compelling valuations and potential for growth with China. I am dipping my toes here (partly based on your posts!). In a future where the current political risks are overblown, it looks like a good bet. I am betting a political status quo is more preferable to open, direct hostilities. But still, difficult to argue against other faster growing areas of the global economy that will probably continue to grow: Technology and healthcare are two that come to mind.
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And Capone went to jail for tax evasion. None of this is new.
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We need a "Trump financial news" thread. My two cents - after seeing this guy skirt the law and fleece anyone he could simply because he had power over them, for DECADES in NY...I do think it's hilarious that he is on the receiving end. Do I with the law was transparent and principled and we all played by the same set of rules and the various systems of justice enforced it all equally? Of course. But sadly it isn't...as Trump himself fully knows. To me it looks like he played his hand too strong and it's biting him in the ass. But don't fret - I'm sure daddy Putin or whomever will come to his aid and let the courts play out this charade another few years
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Dipped a toe into five-cent (tencent) and couche-tard.
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That's fair but the counterpoint (not that I really agree) is that - if Apple, Google, Meta, Amazon, etc. are all out there competing with each other and presumably driving down profits in the name of adding consumer value, why are those stocks essentially the high flyers of the US economy? Is it competition or simply an oligopoly?
