LC

a bona fide resident of Puerto Rico is an individual who: Is physically present in Puerto Rico for at least 183 days during the taxable year; Does not have a tax home outside of Puerto Rico during the taxable year; and Does not have a closer connection to the United States or a foreign country than to Puerto Rico.1

https://supchina.com/2020/04/09/more-than-240000-chinese-companies-declare-bankruptcy-in-the-first-two-months-of-2020/ More Than 240,000 Chinese Companies Declare Bankruptcy In The First Two Months Of 2020

I would also want occupancy and pricing curves for a period of the business' history, and also independently do some analysis of the surrounding area as that will be your tenant mix.

I've raised some cash, sold some of the visa and berkshire LEAPs i purchased a few weeks ago but I have kept the vast majority. If the rally continues I'll cash out of those and go back into holding those stocks. Going to hold the bank stocks, AT&T, phillip morris and get paid 7-8% div yields; going to hold exxon and iron mountain and get paid 10+% yields. Barring tobacco or oil literally going out of business, those I plan to hold those for a long time. Sitting around 10% cash which I'll hold onto if we see another big dip, and if needed I will go on some margin to bring that up to 20% if the bargains re-appear.

Unsurprisingly, the guy paid by insurance companies and writing for an insurance journal claims that business insurance does not cover this event. No conflict of interest here, I suppose?

LC, Huh? You know, I am getting old. I was referring to this post: https://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/login-over-http/msg386500/#msg386500 But mis-remembered Sanjeev's message. I'll show myself out :D

Have you read this? If so I am curious for your thoughts. It looks intriguing but I fear it could be a bunch of "if your employees don't have the freedom to tell the CEO to screw off, it illustrates failing moral courage and the company will go belly up!"

Meanwhile the politics section is likely ignored (and Sanjeev hinted it would be removed). I poured a little beer out for the soon-to-be departed subforum ;D

I was specifically referring to options on "dead men walking" so to speak (companies which have declared covenant breaches, things like that). Regardless I'll throw out some counterpoints: -They've got 400M of cash, not a lot of debt - can probably get thru 2020 lease and interest obligations -They may be eligible for lease forgiveness or modification due to COVID as other tenants are doing. -These are not anchor stores or locations. Property owner's may have difficulty kicking out BURL and finding a replacement tenant. May be easier to extend terms. -I agree the demographic may be hit harder by the pandemic and therefore slower to return to stores -On the other hand, this company has a long history and has shown to be quite resilient. I don't think it's a BK risk. Additionally, have you looked at Ross? I would think the similar thesis applies there although they appear slightly less levered.

Is this your first time buying puts on dead companies? I've done so in the past, hilariously usually breaking even. I've had companies technically in BK with 100s of millions in equity value, buying 6 month puts and having them breakeven. It can be infuriating.

In tragic news, Charlotte Figi died from COVID complications: https://coloradosun.com/2020/04/08/charlotte-figi-cbd-coronavirus/ For those who aren't aware, she was a de facto figurehead of the marijuana legalization movement.

The travel restriction was put into place on Jan 30 and was sadly flawed: The ban applied only to foreign nationals who had been in China during the previous 14 days, and included 11 categories of exceptions. Since the restrictions took effect, nearly 40,000 passengers have entered the United States from China, subjected to inconsistent screenings, The New York Times reported.

Thanks Liberty. Your username is especially relevant in such case :D

Traders have received special consideration to WFH but that function should remain on site post-corona. Most middle and back office can be done remotely.

Was speaking about this with two coworkers today. One loved the idea because it saves him 2hrs of commute daily into the city. The other hates it because he lives in the city (brighton) and is in his apt with wife/kids. I think now everyone is testing it, so we may see an uptick of people who are WFH for the first time and decide to stick with it.

If WB and CM died tomorrow and sold everything to Gates, I think a fair valuation would be around 600, 625B Call it 250/sh.

Imagine, if Trump did more to help NYC, maybe his numbers would look better. But of course, he doesn't actually care because it's a blue state The two states with 20% of the nation's GDP are the biggest mess, you must be kidding!

Yes - I hate using book value and think it is an outdated metric. Maybe the exception is pure and simple financial companies but I would argue Berkshire is not in that category anymore. Earnings power, replacement value, sum of the parts...I would use any of these methodologies before BV. Just my opinion!

I am not looking but I heard prices are dirt cheap right now as dealers are trying to move anything off their lot. Also, apparently a fire near the Ft Lauderdale airport destroyed a giant fleet of rental cars. Now, I'm not saying it was for the insurance payout or anything like that, but I'm also not not saying that either.

Personally I agreed with Buffett. I did think stocks were cheap (or fairly priced) in the context of 2-3% long term rates and nobody knowing what a coronavirus was. But I've got Buffett beat because I didn't get on CNBC and publicly say so (not that they would have me), so I don't have to deal with anyone's ire :D

Don't forget weed stocks - they're the great equalizer ;D

I think the first-order effects are well known and probably easily imagined. Things like, large unemployment and subsequent "frictional" re-hiring. Missed debt repayments leading to bankruptcies, loan modifications, or other financing arrangements (i.e. debt-for-equity/PIKs etc.) My question is what will the second or third order effects be? Will we see manufacturing exit China at an accelerated pace, due to "concentration risk"? (I don't think so) Will we see companies globally de-leverage and hold more cash on the B/S? (Perhaps - I think moreso in "vulnerable" industries) Will we see international trade relations deteriorate, to ensure critical industry is maintained "at home"? (I think no) Playing off that, will we see countries allocate funds to build critical industry (think PPE, pharma production) "at home", to the same end? (I think maybe in the short term) What will the political fallout be? Higher taxes to ensure national supplies of critical equipment, bolster unemployment funds? There were two major world-events in the new century (at least from the myopic American view): 9/11 and the GFC. In both cases we saw decade-long consequences (never-ending war in the Middle East ; massive TARP spending, increased regulation etc. for the finance industry globally). Will COVID elicit the same reaction? If so, what will that reaction look like and how will it affect economies?

This. I was thinking about exactly this the other day. Also what happens to the inventory of all those F&B places? The commercial/wholesale food suppliers can not easily sell their stuff to the grocers I assume; packages, sizes very different. What about the farmers, do they have enough (seasonal) manpower to harvest/process everything? And what happens to all that food when governments don't allow the market to adjust to the changes? https://reason.com/2020/03/31/los-angeles-bureaucrats-barbara-ferrer-shut-down-restaurants-for-selling-groceries-without-a-permit Yeah obviously a case of bureaucracy gone wrong. Food safety regulation provides value when things are normal, a grocery store is building out and can apply for permits and provide evidence of safe food handling, but obviously these are not normal times and so should be suspended or altered in times of crisis.

I posted about this a while back. I have some friends who are nurses/MDs at NYC facilities, they have replaced their morgue vans with trailers as the twitter thread mentions. I think I even posted the picture. This happened about...1.5 weeks ago? Not sure where he is getting the rest of the information (burial trenches in city parks?) but it seems the most effective way to manage the bodies would be cremation,but I am no professional in this area. Can they cremate bodies against the wills of the deceased/families, if they had wanted to be buried? Probably wasn't an issue in China, but here the law may prevent it. I don't know. It's very touchy here particularly NY which is pretty diverse religiously. I am not sure about those laws, whether the governor can suspend them in times of crisis, and if so whether there will be fallout in the future if families decide to sue the city/state. I would think in crisis situation the governor would be able to order cremations but I am guessing the logic now is, "let's spend some short-term cash, do whatever we can today to build body preservation capacity, rather than risk a slew of multi-million dollar lawsuits in the future".

I posted about this a while back. I have some friends who are nurses/MDs at NYC facilities, they have replaced their morgue vans with trailers as the twitter thread mentions. I think I even posted the picture. This happened about...1.5 weeks ago? Not sure where he is getting the rest of the information (burial trenches in city parks?) but it seems the most effective way to manage the bodies would be cremation,but I am no professional in this area.