UK

I think the last question (from private investor) about bigest risks was really good, but FFH missed a bit an opportunity here to elaborate in more detail:)

Dangerous for the quarterly guidance:))

Yea, well, I do not know, I myself do not see much of such usage:), but again, nobody uses for transactions gold either. And Bitcoin even seems in many ways superior to it. So if you accept it as a digital gold alternative, you could begin see some rationale for its value. The main problems with BTC are all these technological/safety/disruption aspects, everyone seems so sure about, but for a person like me likelly impossible to fully understand.

All this is very interesting! Please do not hesitate:)

https://www.reuters.com/markets/on-the-money/why-this-30-year-old-swapped-cash-crypto-2026-02-19/ While roughly a quarter of Americans have tried using cryptocurrencies for purchases and investments, younger generations show far more enthusiasm: 42% of Gen Z respondents and 34% of millennials say they’ve used a stablecoin, according to a July survey of 2,000 Americans conducted by The Motley Fool Of those who do use it, 40% of millennials prioritize crypto for travel and large purchases, according to a 2025 Bitget Wallet Onchain Report, while 39% of Gen Z prefer using it for gaming, and 35% for gifting and daily spending.

+1!

Thanks!

Also Gemini estimates it to cost depending on the model anywhere between 68 to 188 K USD. This seems like much, but imagine if cost because of the mass production would decrease like sun panel costs. And even at that price...I used to do some CBA for transportation in my previous life and do not remember figures no where as close to these figures 15 years ago, but it seems value of a statistical life estimate at DOT currently sits ~14 M USD and at OECD is 4-10 M USD, depending on a country.

So 1.35 PBV. Excess of fair value of 3.1 B adjusted for recent 18 percent tax rate is ~120 USD, so adjusted BV is ~1380 USD and adjusted PBV at 2025 year end ~1.23 PBV. Adding ~15 percent growth for 2026 would lead to ~1.07 adjusted PVB.

Also this is what Gemini told me re batteries: Chinese humanoid robots, such as the UBTECH Walker S2 and AgiBot models, typically last between 2 to 4 hours on a single charge during active, continuous operation. To achieve 24/7, non-stop operation, these robots utilize advanced, autonomous battery-swapping systems that replace depleted batteries in just 3 minutes. Key details regarding Chinese humanoid battery life: UBTECH Walker S2: This model features a 48-volt lithium battery system, allowing for 2–4 hours of work before requiring a charge. The robot can autonomously go to a charging station, remove its own battery, and swap in a fresh one.

I agree, if AI will substantially increase productivity and growth, this could solve the current high valuation problem:)

If nothing really bad or good happens, the main tailwind for a larger expected returns is valuation.

Gemini: This video by Nate B Jones discusses the radical transformation of software engineering in 2026, driven by "dark factories" and AI agents that are hollowing out traditional career paths. The Five Levels of "Vibe Coding" The video introduces a framework by Dan Shapiro (CEO of Glowforge) to categorize AI integration in coding: Level 0: Spicy Autocomplete – Basic code suggestions (e.g., original GitHub Copilot) [02:44]. Level 1: Coding Intern – Human gives a discrete task; AI writes the function; human reviews every line [03:02]. Level 2: Junior Developer – AI handles multi-file changes and navigates codebases, but humans still read all the code [03:30]. Level 3: Developer as Manager – The "flip" point; AI does the implementation and submits PRs while the human directs and approves at the feature level [03:56]. Level 4: Product Manager – Human writes specs and checks if tests pass; the code itself is a "black box" [04:41]. Level 5: The Dark Factory – Fully autonomous. Specification goes in, working software comes out. No humans write or review the code [05:14]. Key Concepts & Case Studies The "J-Curve" Productivity Dip: Most developers actually get 19% slower when first using AI because they are "running a new engine on an old transmission"—trying to fit AI into legacy human workflows [14:44]. StrongDM’s Software Factory: A three-person team running a "Level 5" operation. They use "scenarios" (external behavioral specs) rather than traditional tests to prevent AI from "teaching to the test" or gaming the system [07:33]. AI Building AI: 90% of Anthropic’s Claude Code was written by Claude itself [00:58]. Similarly, OpenAI’s Codex 5.3 was instrumental in its own creation, resulting in a 25% speed improvement [11:44]. The Collapse of the Junior Dev Pipeline The most striking data point is the decline in entry-level roles: Junior job postings have dropped 67% in the US and over 50% in the UK [27:08]. The "Hollow Middle": Because AI now handles the simple bugs and features that juniors used to learn on, the "apprenticeship model" of software engineering is breaking [27:54]. The New Bar: A junior in 2026 needs the system-design skills of a 2020 mid-level engineer because implementation is now a commodity [28:40]. The Shift in Skills The bottleneck has moved from implementation speed to specification quality [22:02]. Generalists over Specialists: Value now lies in understanding the "why" and "for whom" rather than being an expert in a specific narrow tech stack [30:04]. Organizational Deletion: Traditional structures like stand-ups, sprint planning, and QA teams are becoming "friction" rather than "coordination" in agent-led environments [19:21]. Conclusion: While the cost of software production is dropping by an order of magnitude—potentially exploding the total market for software—the "camouflage" of implementation complexity is gone. Only those with deep judgment and systems thinking will remain indispensable [41:45].

Thanks, this was more a question on my part, should have phrased differently:)

I think you are right here, market as a whole is not very attractive, and barring some productivity miracle, future returns from here will be low. I would be very unexcited or even sad, if my only option today would be SNP500. But lots of stocks or sectors are still of quite decent valuation, some thing perhaps even cheap, many fair. I did not invested during 2000, but from the reading and description of it, current market looks very similar (even AI mania/disruption is not unlike Internet's at a time), but still not so crazy at the extremes.

Yea, well...nobody is perfect:))). But how does all these stable coins (or even crypto USD one day) bodes for BTC? It should be somewhat negative? Or not?

Was reading some article on Icahn and this stuck with me: Still, Icahn admitted to being too proud in the past. “It was hubris,” he told Puck News last year. “I thought I could figure out what the market was going to do. That’s the dumbest thing you can do.”

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/goldman-nasdaq-ceos-headline-mar-a-lago-crypto-forum-hosted-by-don-jr-eric-trump-2026-02-17/ In a statement, World Liberty spokesman David Wachsman said the forum, opens new tab is “about deepening relationships and extending U.S. dollar dominance in the digital economy,” comparing it to the Milken Institute Global Conference or Sun Valley. He added that media will be invited to attend the event, its speakers were not paid to participate, and announcements will be shared publicly. World Liberty said in posts on X that it would also invite top online promoters of its tradable crypto token, “WLFI” and USD1 stablecoin.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/berkshire-owned-pacificorp-citing-liquidity-sells-washington-assets-portland-2026-02-17/ Damages claims could total $52 billion, PacifiCorp has said, but would likely be lower. Trials could last into 2028. PacifiCorp has asked an Oregon state appeals court to undo a class action and eliminate liability for fire victims' emotional distress.

https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/snowflake-stock-falls-amid-googles-new-bigquery-global-queries-feature-93CH-4509611 This one supposed to be AI proof just recently.

https://archive.is/2pMjJ Falling wine sales reflect a lonelier and more atomised world It’s not just health-conscious youngsters who are saying no to Bordeaux

Like 25x better:)

I wonder, how are these robots powered? Must have quite high energy need with such moves:). How long can they stay on foot?