valueinvesting101

I remember reading that Burry was investing in almonds. California produces like 80% of the world's almonds. With water shortage in California, Almond prices would go up. Almond sounds like commodity which will be mostly consume by rich so there will be no/less outrage if he profits a lot of money from almond. I read this few years back and didn't think that would be good bet but almond prices have increased over last few years and with drought in California, his thesis seems to be playing out.

"We'll probably borrow about $10 billion and use about $23 billion of our cash," Buffett said. http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/10/warren-buffett-precision-deal-very-high-multiple.html

Buffett had mentioned in one of his interview that both Todd and Ted had bought Direct TV. So it is not just Ted's position.

Not sure about 45% but Berkshire seems undervalued. Tax credits extension for solar & wind would definitely beneficial for Berkshire given immediate tax credits of 30% plus growth in BH energy in long term.

From Q3 Interim report page 12: During the third quarter and first nine months of 2015, the company closed out a portion of its other equity index total return swaps with an original notional amount of nil and $100.0 respectively. Which short position did they close exactly? What was their performance on the position and reason for closing that position? Seems like there short thesis is still intact and they didn't not buy any new positions so it makes me wonder why they chose to close this position.

Which are these companies? 1. BNSF 2. Mid-American Energy 3. Geico 4. Lubrizol 5. Marmon Holdings 6. Van Tuyl 7. Gen Re 8. National Indemnity Company Which one am I missing? Shaw Industries? Fruit of the Loom?

@Grey, what sort of advances in computing, big data, and artificial intelligence can be disruptive to reinsurance or insurance? Great things were talked about AI in 1960-70 but we see only piecemeal improvements in AI so far. Mostly likely we will better outcome in next 20-40 years. But how will that flow in to pricing insurance? I guess current available technical resources can allow greater insights into underlying risk but it is not effectively used in presence of greed and fear. I doubt that will change drastically going forward in 20-30 years. More likely there will be global growth in insurance due to emerging markets and globalization with improved penetration rates. Banking has been around millenniums and also using latest technical advances but fundamentals of the business have remained same and more likely to remain the same in next 20-30 years. Looking back, I think Berkshire made money by pricing risk conservatively and patiently rather than superior knowledge or data analysis. This trait is not just evident in insurance but also applicable in Berkshire's purchase of whole businesses or public securities. This trait is less likely to be copied by other companies.

Refining business is 53% of Phillips 66 refining earning. They also have chemical and mid-stream operations. Chemical, marketing and specialities are large part remaining earning sources. Midstreams assets are being moved to MLP. They own 50% interest in DCP midstream LLC and 66% ownership in Phillip 66 partners. Refining business is usually commoditized play but given spread between Brent-WTI seems to be driving high margins at US refiners. This advantage can be best exploited by refiner with large sweet crude processing capacity located strategically close to oil production states and consuming markets. I believe this is biggest source of competitive advantage for PSX. Export ban on US crude is driving Brent-WTI spread. If this ban is lifted margins of US refiners are likely to come down but I doubt this would lifted soon. If this is indeed lifted, then midstream assets should include in value which can essentially transform low price oil/gas at well to high value export items. Company seems to be increasing its dividend and buyback for last few years as well as focusing on building new mid stream operations and moving them to MLP. Most of the refiners are following above described strategies with varying degree. PSX must be good at executing them or BRK prefers them due to their size advantage. I need to explore their differentiating factor vs. other refiner. Any thoughts on PSX advantages over other refiners?

Can Berkshire buy stock from open market when they have offer pending?

What is his largest holding exactly? I tried to search it but could not find it.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-07/buffett-scores-cheapest-electricity-rate-with-nevada-solar-farms

http://www.businessinsider.com/susan-cain-on-why-extroverts-earn-more-2015-5 I guess most people on this board will disagree with above

Do low income earner work only for largest organization? What about guy flipping burger at non-franchise place? Largest organization are more likely to automate since they have scale to justify investment needed for automation. That would be difficult for smaller players.

GM/WS/B

Recent Valero's investor presentation talks about "margin capture rate" but I could not find definition of this term anywhere. Here is a link to the latest presentation: http://valero.investorroom.com/download/VLO+IR+2015+March+FINAL+%283-2-15%29.pdf Does anyone know meaning of this term?

That's absolutely true. I met him at volunteering event for iMentor. He used to show up consistently for every meet and behave as much as any other volunteer.

Looks like this never materialized. This is latest shareholding pattern: http://www.bseindia.com/corporates/shpperent.aspx?scripcd=532636&qtrid=84&CompName=IIFL%20Holdings%20Limited&QtrName=December%202014 Does anyone know if HWIC increased their stake to 18%? IIFL has in controversy recently related commodities trading NSEL: http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2015-03-04/news/59767076_1_nsel-scam-mpid-act-jignesh-shah

An application has been granted for the original listing in the Industrial category of up to 108,078,947 subordinate voting shares (the "Shares"), of which up to 70,578,947 Shares will be issued and outstanding, and up to 37,500,000 Shares will be reserved for issuance upon completion of an initial public offering (the "Offering") and the concurrent private placements. The Shares will be traded in U.S. funds. Accordingly, they will appear under the heading U.S. funds in newspapers and the Exchange's Daily Record and Monthly Review. Listing of the Shares will become effective at 5:01 p.m. on Thursday, January 29, 2015 in anticipation of the Offering closing on Friday, January 30, 2015. The Shares will be posted for trading at the opening on Friday, January 30, 2015 upon confirmation of closing.

Top 10 Ways to Become a Billionaire Self-made Forbes 400 billionaires 1. Investments: 77 2. Technology: 45 3. Real Estate: 22 4. Fashion and Retail: 18 5. Media: 17 6. Food and Beverage: 15 7. Energy: 12 8. Health care: 11 9. Sports: 10 10. Manufacturing: 10 Top 10 Ways to Become a Billionaire Heirs on the Forbes 400 1. Investments: 19 2. Service: 17 2. Fashion and Retail: 17 3. Energy: 16 4. Food and Beverage: 14 5. Media: 11 6. Manufacturing: 10 7. Real Estate: 5 8. Diversified: 3 8. Technology: 3 8. Health Care: 3 http://www.forbes.com/sites/erincarlyle/2013/09/18/how-self-made-forbes-400-billionaires-earned-their-money/ I think it depends on which part of the world you are looking at. In developing world, its easier for established companies to make money across the industries especially heavy industries due to crony capitalism, inefficient and protected domestic markets, huge upfront investments and government support required.

Hopefully Berkshire can pick some good pipeline assets then ;)

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/banking/finance/finance/prem-watsa-likely-to-fork-out-rs-950-crore-for-26-stake-in-india-infoline/articleshow/45391048.cms

I think instead of 3G, deal with BYD might make more sense. I don't know much about different type of batteries that Duracell makes but I believe BYD can use this brand with their execution expertise and China cost advantage.

Yeah. This came out yesterday. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-03/gross-says-deflation-a-growing-possibility-threatening-wealth.html

You can get those on Bloomberg. I believe it was mentioned somewhere that Todd uses Bloomberg terminal.

I agree with KCLarkin strategy. Best to way to insulate from market fluctuations is to understand business better. You would not worry about your kid too much if he is sick and cannot study/play for couple of days. What matters is long run habits, aptitude and attitude. I think same goes with the stocks/businesses. Try thinking about challenges/opportunity business faces. Try to read up about competition and new entrant. When focusing on bank, try comparing what advantage/disadvantage other companies have such as Paypal, quicken loans have or can exploit. This will help you understand potential opportunity and risk. Also expanding one's circle of competence is always good idea than focusing on market fluctuations. Learning about different businesses is very interesting pastime anyways. Reading snowball, I was amaze at how many different ways WEB thought about making money before turning into stocks. He was very entrepreneurial before turning into sloth. I think turning into sloth directly can be dangerous as you will miss out on learning from running or analyzing actual business. He had to keep learning by buying failing retail business or candy business to gain new insights. 'Empty mind is devil's workshop'. Keeping oneself occupied with different or related hobbies is good idea. I usually find reading about legends in the different walks of life makes me focus more on substance rather than just few ticks of stock prices.