Milu

Thanks for the explanation. Helps me understand the background a bit more.

Do you typically go in and out of large weightings of cash as part of your investment process? If not then this seems like quite an impulsive move. Not saying what you are doing is right or wrong just seems extreme.

No loads blown yet . Just a small amount of purchasing in the retail sector where there seems to be ok price multiples. It’s a little bit more than 10% drawdown over 3 days, both the Nasdaq and S&P are down close to 20% from peak. Things also seem to move a lot faster these days so I wouldn’t necessarily expect a large scale drawdown to go for a couple of years, could certainly happen though. Still plenty of froth out there too though so I’ll be just keeping tabs on my watchlist and making some selective buys if the market serves up some deals.

I see, thanks for the further explanation. Not my general area of expertise so good to get some additional context.

Ya I read the article and posted it in some other thread a few days ago. From my read it seemed that Buffett was suggesting something similar to what trump is doing, perhaps with more nuance but fundamentally the same concept. I don’t think concepts like this get dated as they should be rather timeless. I was also wondering why there wasn’t any discussion about it but just assumed people didn’t read it or possibly had difficulty reconciling the fact that our dear leader Buffett expressed a similar point of view as our stable genius trump.

Yes agree with majority of this. Nobody has any clue how this current saga will turn out, could be a 50% drawdown or could rally from here to all time highs. Once the next year of two plays out everybody will proclaim how obvious it was what would happen. Best bet is to just ensure you will be fine in either scenario. If you don't use leverage and are investing for the long term (5-10 years out) then what happens to good companies over the next 12 months is mostly meaningless, sure on paper you net worth will be lower but if you aren't selling or are a net buyer the opportunity to buy things at lower prices removes a lot of the risk, not increases it. The world will still be here in 10 years and good companies will still be doing business in 10 years, just focus on holding or buying them at reasonable prices.

No I meant a market bottom, not Berkshire bottom. Berkshire prices are certainly close to top (at those $530+ prices) and I think you made a smart move selling at those prices.

Hmm, people selling Berkshire, maybe we are getting closer to a bottom? So far I've made one buy during this downturn, 2.5% purchase of LVMH taking my cash down from 30% to 27.5%. Not yet seeing bargains yet but prices are certainly getting closer to reasonably valued. Hope to get to put more money to work over coming months.

Nice that’s a big chunk. About 15% of net worth for me. Would like to get it up to maybe 20% over the next few months.

Interesting wasn't aware of that. Good to know I'm not paying unnecessary costs so!

Whats your current weighting in Bitcoin?

Not sure if this was already posted but very fascinating to read Buffett’s article from 2002 discussing runaway deficits and potential approaches to resolve. This was when the deficit was ‘only’ 4%.

I believe LVMUY is the appropriate ADR but not certain so perhaps other posters have more information.

Not sure if directed at me or others. I'm based in Europe so buying it in France. Might be better if I just bought the ADR traded in America as france applies a small stamp duty of half a percent on trades which is a bit annoying.

Added to LVMH at €500 per share.

Hah very true. When many stocks on my watchlist like chipotle, lotus bakeries etc are still trading at 40+ multiples we could be still a while before things get fairly priced. We have currently gone from very expensive to overvalued.

Once the activity in the ‘what did you buy’ thread starts to stop and the replies in the ‘what did you sell’ become ‘everything’ we will know we are getting close In reality no one knows. Best bet is to buy stuff when I gets to a good value but also keep some funds in reserve to take advantage if this downturn becomes a ‘biggie’

Ya I don't really have any issues about EU taking away or shifting subsidies to benefit their citizens as that's the competitive game all regions are playing. Where I do have issues is when it targets one firm specifically, rather than all. For example I don't know if there is any specific 'Tesla subsidies' that the EU operates, I know their is general EV subsidies that all EV companies can benefit from so they (we I should say, as I am European myself) can obviously change them however they like, but just ensure the rules apply to all companies, not just Tesla. Level playing field and all that.

I find some of these supposed caring liberals tactics of ‘going after’ musk, or taking glee in attempts to damage his businesses as bad as all the issues people complain about musk doing. What happened to the values you claim to represent, do these go out the window when somebody does something you don’t like?

I don’t think selectively fines and punishment of a specific entrepreneur is a great way to go for Europe or any country for that matter. Or the argument that Musk did x, so now we can do y. Just apply the rules consistently and try to be the better person setting a good example.

People are the ones that buy and sell stocks. People are irrational emotional beings. Makes perfect sense if you view things through that lens. ‘Mr Market’ as Ben Graham eloquently put it. The volatility of the last 5 years is child’s play compared to a extended drawdown of 50% over a multi year period a la dot com crash and subprime crisis.

Agreed. These are the moment where I really come alive. When the markets are just ticking along making new high after new high I tend to lose a bit of interest even though my wealth would be growing nicely. But when these drawdowns happen I start to awake from my slumber and get seriously engaged in how best to put my money to work to create great fortunes over the coming 5-10 years. Haven’t yet began to purchase (with exception of small add to existing LVMH in my pension). I’m hoping this drawdown continues for a couple of months at least, even better if it was a year or two. I’m still in the accumulation stage of life (41 year old with at least another decade before consider quitting job) so cheaper prices are a huge benefit to me. We aren’t anywhere close to cheap yet, maybe exception for some retail but maybe we will get there soon.

Perhaps this is finally Bitcoins moment to shine as a risk-off asset. Usually when the nasdaq plummets bitcoin ends up falling more. I've always been waiting for the day when markets crash and bitcoin rallies as a safe haven. Felt we were 5-10 years away. Perhaps this tariff stuff will bring the day forward.

For me I have 30% cash , portfolio is still down 13% . I do live for these times though, take a little bit of a sick pleasure at the panic going on around me. S&P is still only down 8.5% year to date about maybe 13% peak to trough. Not exactly end of days stuff yet.

Tempted to add to my Lululemon and LVMH holdings. Generally try to avoid most 'retail' type businesses but the valuations are getting reasonably attractive. I'm on the fence with Nike, I've admired the company for a long time but feel like it could be on a long term decline. With Lulu and LVMH they have mostly been executing well and are being punished in this new tariff environment. Nike's issues have predated this.