Milu

Congrats on getting close to the 1st 100k, it's a good milestone for any young investor to get to. If you are trying to follow Munger then it might be worth holding your investments for a decent period of time to let things play out. Based on your quote posts above looks like you initially wanted to have a third in Berkshire, Fairfax and S&P, then soon after you seem to have sold out of your S&P, and now you are thinking about holding 25% cash. Seems like a lot of jumping around in a very short period.

Ya I question why I bother reading FT and WSJ anymore, mostly just nonsense with perhaps 1 good article a week. Economist is the only one I feel has maintained quality standards.

Yes, it is fascinating the mental gymnastics that people put themselves through with certain topics. There are certain things seen as good (Buffett, Munger, Democrats, value investing) and certain topics seen as bad (musk, trump, republicans, bitcoin, high PE stocks). If Buffett says that the deficit is too high and needs to be cut, because he is in the ‘good’ pile then it gets treated as a very reasonable position from an intelligent person, if musk or trump says the exact same thing then they get slated. Macron holds miltary parade then it’s ‘a nice bit of pageantry ‘. Trump does it then it’s ’US decending into dictatorship’. Both sides do it to some extent as we are all flawed humans with our own set of biases. I try to learn from both sides, buffet and munger is where I learned most about business, investing, and ethics. But then I am also a big proponent of Tesla and bitcoin so its not like I take everything they say as gospel. They are human beings not gods.

Not quite sure thats how markets work haha. If every holder of any asset (Gold, Apple, Berkshire) decided to sell the asset tomorrow then unless there was a similar horde of people looking to buy the asset, then the price would obviously continue dropping until a floor in the price was made. Not sure what type of point you are attempting to make. Nothing ever gets 'cashed out'. Anytime somebody sells an asset then there is obviously a new buyer that then owns the asset.

Yes I agree robotics in general has been around for decades and has been quite successful. Humanoid robots is obviously the big buzzword right now and there seems to be a lot of big names forecasting great things (Google, Meta, Nvidia, Tesla) and many chinese companies too. Regarding timelines I also agree that it likely won't be as fast as people think. I suppose it depends on what timelines you are expecting. For me I am more thinking on a 10-20 year timeframe for this rather than anything that will move the needle in the next 5 years. My view is that it will take longer than people think but when it does reach scale it will be way bigger than anybody thinks. And I think Tesla has as much likelihood of being a leader as anybody else would. But a long way to go with many twists and turns. Place bets accordingly.

There is a lot to be said about paying up for good quality items and holding them for a long time. I’ve heard it’s a good investment strategy too

Put me down in the mediocre/bad investor category so please, alongside Sundar Pichai, Zuckerberg, Sayya Nadella, Jensen Huang and any other Mag 7 CEO. Reminds me of Paul Krugman’s famous comment about the internet.

You make quite the persuasive argument but aren’t all these benefits already factored into the price the market is willing to pay for real residential real estate. No free lunch and all that.

Interesting family https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2025/06/07/bitcoin-family-crypto-security-kidnappings.html

Typical trump exaggeration. In reality they have only come down 250%

I would say the 8 years you have been investing properly is not really enough time to distinguish between skill and luck, especially if you are typically highly concentrated like you said. Either way it seems like you have won the game and are in capital preservation mode now so great job. I expect I will be in a similar position in about 8 years when I turn 50. While not as concentrated as you seem to be I would still define myself as a concentrated investor (top 3 positions are 18%, 16% and 12% of net worth respectively. Once I get to the preservation stage I will likely go index fund for about 80% and maybe keep 20% to play around with. Perhaps you can do something similar?

I’d give it a high possibility they are acting like good buddies again before the weekend is out. Lovers tiff. Two big egos slinging insults at each other, they’ll both calm down and realise they need each other in different ways.

It’s unorthodox but works for me. I’ve never managed to get fully invested over the years(due to being quite picky) so always end have a sizeable ‘cash’ balance that I need to maintain purchasing power on while I wait for opportune moments to buy equities. While I could go the Buffett route and just use t-bills for my cash I was always quite skeptical of having it all in government securities. So as a result I’ve usually ended up with a mix of tbills and ‘hard’ asset like gold originally and bitcoin (since 2020). So where other might have a 60-40 where the 40 is some mix of bonds of different duration and maturity mine is currently like a 60-20-20 where equities is 60, tbills 20, and bitcoin 20. The liquid tbills would be first to be spent if something on my watchlist hit attractive price so I’d only really be considering selling bitcoin once the 20% tbill portion had been cashed out to buy stocks.

I respect your opinion on all this and felt the same for many years. I was somewhat radicalised by all the money printing that came off the back of the 08 global financial crisis so became a bit of a gold bug then. Heard about bitcoin in 2011 but dismissed it for 9 years using same arguments as you put forward. Then in early 2020 when the printer got fired up again during Covid the penny finally dropped regarding bitcoin and I’ve been a convert ever since. It’s not for everybody and I’d say most people who don’t like gold as a store of value will have similar opinion on bitcoin. I don’t use either or see either as ‘investments’ just as an alternative to cash in that it is a place to store a chunk of my money while I await equities to become attractive.

I would make the argument that this is precisely the reason why Bitcoin and Gold ARE going up so much. People are realising that IOUs and depreciating pieces of paper are not money and that hard assets are the place to be for at least some part of your portfolio.

Yes this is well said. There are a lot of people confidently pronouncing their opinions on this forum. While there can certainly be a smart young person, if they haven't made much money from their smarts then I am less likely to put much weight on their opinions. An older person with a demonstrated track record at least 10 years, ideally 20+ who has gone through multiple booms and busts and with a large self made net worth, is a lot more valuable to me. While it's not fool proof and there is always the element of luck, it's the best yardstick to go by.

Looks like I’ll get a cheaper price so for today’s buy. Cue the next round of panic around tariffs for a few weeks, then trump pulls back or a deal is done and all’s right with the world.

Wise words. My general feeling with LVMH is the stock will likely go nowhere for the next year to 18 months, and then just double in some 6 month period. A very comfortable long term holding for me.

Nice one John, might start to add a bit more myself later today. It’s still only a 4% position for me so might try get that up to 5 or 6%

Many more to come over the coming years and decades.

Petition to change the thread name to ‘where are we in this rally’.

Just down 2% now, perhaps a nice solid double digit positive return by year end at this rate.

Not sure I follow, isn't publicly telling everybody at the same time via a public post the most transparent way to communicate things. Would you rather he kept it to himself and some close associates?

Ya agree on the leaving personalities out. Politics is generally such a divisive topic where people have strong opinions that likely don’t change that I often wonder if it’s worth discussing at all around friends.

Same, almost all my friends are stereotypical liberals constantly getting worked up about every global issue or ‘outraged’ about the latest thing trump or musk did. Some you can have a reasonable conversation about these topics with and others seem to get personally offended by the fact I like Musk and am mostly neutral on trump. I fluctuate between keeping my political opinions to myself and just going fuck it I’ll just speak honestly and if somebody doesn’t like it that’s their issue, not mine. Haven’t quite settled on an approach yet!