Eldad

Shelf 6, left center. 5 books are Mark Twain’s letters.

Hardcore leftist, academic won with 60% of the vote. Pretty strong mandate to follow through on all her neo-commie dreams. I’m out.

Hahaha now that is funny. Love a good rant. note to self, use harebrained more. how would he know if the remaining clowns are useless without access to the investments board? I literally got a giant multiple of my fee the first day by discovering Terravest. Great forum.

I tried. Didn’t work

Isn’t it sort of a reach to say over a long period of time a single stock is less risky than an ever changing index of 500 stocks? Even BRK? There is really no chance of the S&P 500 going to zero. I would argue there is a bigger chance of BRK going to 0 in a crazy insurance event. Let’s just assume neither one is going to 0. WB himself says I would rather have a lumpy 15% than a less volatile 12. I think if we are here reading about BRK we all understand that volatility is not risk. If volatility is not risk and the S&P has no chance of permanent loss then S&P is probably the better choice going forward.

Yes I agree. ML talked about this on the Constellation call. Saying Munger wanted to lever up more but that WB wanted to be the backstop for the American economy. And that this had not really worked out well for BRK. (I am much more in camp Munger on most things they disagree on). That is a noble aspiration and WB certainly has the right to do that, but it doesn’t really help me as a shareholder. I have gone from about 20% BRK in 2021 to 10% now. I think that is still probably too much, but it’s hard to sell it for me.

Bought a little too. I would like to double up but don’t really want to at this price. But it’s likely really cheap with Highland and AEP annualized. Everybody else on this page worried about the crazy whims of women consumers. Haha I’ll take steel tanks rather than try to figure that out.

Who knows. I was big on the train of tech bubble 2.0 will burst eventually prior to Covid. Then Covid came along and they really showed everyone that they were a completely superior new class of business.

It’s not a bad point. Charlie said that BRK was a better collection of businesses than the S&P, but the bottom line is SPY has had a way higher ROIC than BRK for some time. Deploying capital into new businesses could help BRK overcome this, but they will not. This is mainly due to Meta, GOOGL, Msft, aapl, Nvidia, Amzn being some of the most profitable businesses of all time with incredible growth rates. This is why Charlie said you basically have to own them to compete. The giant AAPL position helps but is not enough. Now you have WB saying in the latest letter, we are better than the average S&P company. The problem is BRK is way worse than whatever the market weighting of those superstars is and the S&P as a whole because of those giants.

Yeah I seriously doubt the board would let Greg do that. I was thinking do like 20 spin-offs with an insurance company coupled with a few operating companies and then BRK maintains 51% ownership like CSU is doing. That way you maintain and reinvigorate the insurance float plus investment business model on a smaller scale. It is pretty clear that CSU has studied everything about BRK and is getting in front of the too big problem way earlier.

I used to think there was a super secret plan for BRK after WB but now I don’t really think so. Board will drag feet for way too long out of nostalgia. They are already rebranding as the super safe alternative to the S&P. Super safe investors will want a dividend. I still hold as my largest position for emotional reasons and because the market is in a crazy bubble and WB may have one more trick up his sleeve.

6 members in Forbes top 100 and Private. I’d keep it if I were them.

12%? Market at all time highs and you are trying beat vig of 12? Ouch. Be careful.

Could be. Also, pretty obvious that 2 is stronger than 1 and that being on a team with someone you love is going to make you both better.

The most powerful wealth indicator is marriage. You hear people talk about the racial wealth gap in America, if you account for the differences in marriage, there basically is no racial wealth gap. Black married folks are better off than white unmarried. Only a few % difference between white married and black married. Dems never seem to talk about that? I wonder why?

Ha, I have not kept up. I think it is still an S Show. I’m still shorting Ivys. Going to try to pretty much ignore domestic news for next 6 months. Thanks for the Myanmar story.

Well Jesus said this 2000 years ago Lay not up for yourselves treasures upon earth, where moth and rust doth corrupt, and where thieves break through and steal: But lay up for yourselves treasures in heaven, where neither moth nor rust doth corrupt, and where thieves do not break through nor steal The ultimate delayed gratification. That chart kinda over simplifies things.

My buddy is a CPA that has a firm that only has dentists as clients. I would say average makes 400k. When my state shut down dentist offices during Covid at the very beginning, over half his clients started calling him and saying they had zero cash and had to fire their entire staff immediately. Shortly after PPP loans were announced. But the point is over half his clients had 0 margin. If they couldn’t work they were bankrupt in a week.

Sell Apple and buy Chubb. Got it. Guess that’s why I’m not the Oracle.

I think America did a great thing in WW2 and I can see your point. But if I’m putting myself in his shoes, after what happened in WW2 plus what Hamas did, plus this latest crap Biden pulled, I can totally understand where he is coming from. You have a point and so does he I believe.

Kristallnacht happened in 1938 and was widely reported all over the world. British didn’t declare war until invasion of Poland 1939. USSR didn’t declare war until they were double crossed and attacked in middle of 1941. USA didn’t declare war until Pearl Harbor almost 1942 (100,000s of Jews had likely been shot before that as Germany invaded USSR in the 6 months prior) None of them fought Nazis to save Jews. Any saving of Jews was completely coincidental to killing Nazis.

Imagine your house was burning down and you kept calling the fire department. Finally they come because the fire is about to spread to your neighbors house. They put out the fire and nothing remains but some chard wood and the brick chimney. What is the lesson learned? If we say next time we need to be able to put out our own fire we are being mean to the firemen that saved our heap of ashes?

European Jews were basically completely annihilated. They lost all of their rights, property, and then their lives slowly over a decade. No one came to save them in that respect. They were all dead. The Allies came to destroy Nazism and of course helped the few Jews that were left. The reason for fighting for the USA , USSR, UK etc. was never to save the Jews. As a modern leader of the Jewish people what he is saying makes perfect sense. Do you want to hold out hope for outside help like our ancestors (the polish Jews were always hoping the British or Russians were coming in 1939 and 1940), or do you help yourselves? The great lesson of the Holocaust for them is help yourselves.

I see your point, but from their prospective Poland went from 3.5 Million Jews to about 100,000 by the time the Calvary came. I think he is making an accurate statement.

Can someone post the results of the poll? I get an error message and can’t see it.