Eldad

I feel your pain. If Q3 is poor I’m buying a few more shares and then closing up shop for the year. Try to not even look until 2026. There is just no way CSU isn’t a big winner in the LT IMO, but it is painful.

This bounce today is pretty weak. I think it still wants to go down until November 7th probably. Not that any of that really matters but just budgeting for maybe one more really low bite at the apple.

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2479545-ai-hallucinations-are-getting-worse-and-theyre-here-to-stay/ https://research.aimultiple.com/ai-hallucination/ Hallucinations are getting worse as they get more powerful. Failure rates are much higher than I thought and I didn’t put much stock in their accuracy before reading this.

AMZN layoffs were 0.9% of its workforce. Remember they need to sell their book just like all the other AI darlings.

More CSU. Not as fun as it was at first.

Ha maybe. A “saying” sort of implies to me that it has proven wisdom through the passage of many years. Some 35 year old podcaster talking about AI maybe doesn’t apply at this point in time. We will see.

Spooky’s point is still valid even if it is earnings. The increase in S&P earnings are really just AI CAPEX that may or may not actually be doing anything productive and could easily melt away. Also, they will start showing up as expenses in the form of depreciation going forward.

Yes he invested in a company to bottle their farts and he bemoaned all of their methane production constantly and wanted us to eat fake meat. Now With AI data centers set to make cows look like a drop in the greenhouse gas bucket, he has predictably pivoted. Meanwhile you have Peter Thiel giving lectures on why Greta and other anti-AI greens are the “antichrist”. It never occurred to me to be green before but I might have to join them. Seems like the more rational team at this point.

I’m still highly skeptical of all of this. The Economy is slowing. Seems like a great way to scare the crap out of existing employees and then call their increased productivity from longer hours “AI gains”. Hard to know. It’s all smoke and mirrors at this point.

My best guess is algos went crazy on the AI is killing software trade due to FI. From what I can tell FI Qtr had nothing to do with AI.

Thanks

This is wild. Market goes up every day on NVDA strength and everything else is crashing. I know some of the older members have said BRK went down for like a year at the end of the 2000 mania. Was the entire “old economy” group of stocks suffering like this back then?

Exactly. The brain can run on a cheeseburger for probably 72 hours, it’s a lot better than this junk. But seriously, this should be enemy number one of the greens. I guess we now know why Bill Gates is no longer talking about sequestering cow farts. This is going to blow up spectacularly. I can’t wait.

Given the human propensity for mania and the horrible track record of almost all expert predictions, I think it makes the most sense to bet that the world will go on as it always has. I have harped on this before but all of these people are thinking about this in a vacuum. What happens politically when the global populace turns on it? AI terrorist groups will pop up all around the world if the future is anything like these people claim. What happens when US based and Chinese based AI systems endlessly hack each other potentially making all cypher security worthless and the usefulness of any of this negated. How will AI ever have agency to do anything on its own?

The fake videos are getting crazy good. Funny that the court room standard for evidence is probably about to return to the ancient standard of 2 eye witnesses as video is about to become complete garbage.

I’m getting like a 6.75x EBITDA multiple for what BRO pays for acquisitions. Is that close to what you longterm holders have observed? It looks like that matches what I can find on industry standards.

Funny that Trump is not a fascist in the way people who are calling him a fascist think (racist, Hitler blah blah blah) But he actually is a fascist in his corporate statist policies.

I did as well.

Lumine

Market started hating software and analytics again today . Market seems confused and not right. Just a general feeling I get.

Maybe. Feels like it’s getting worse. Golds at 4K. Fed is owned by Trump now and is cutting into inflation. Civil unrest is increasing. Trump is ramping up pay-back prosecutions and everything is at an all time high valuation. What could go wrong? By the way I begrudgingly voted for Trump the past 2 elections so no TDS here.

Gotta love a good red day. Hope it has some legs.

It’s getting bad out there

PE on the whole has half the profit margins and twice the debt and is in the process of blowing up. Open AI probably doesn’t want to disclose the Weimar Republic levels of cash they are burning daily with no profit source in sight.

All of the conmen coming out and saying their false promises are annoying and we are in a bubble while at the same time accelerating the madness daily, is very weird.