Eldad

Sell the OXY common now please sir.

Interesting that all the moatiest of the asset light companies are having a pretty big AI scare lately. CSU, JKHY, SPGI, TRI, etc. The game is always changing. Will be interesting if in the future more asset heavy stuff like oil refineries, etc. get a predictability premium.

Tax sticks from 14th century England prove that money was invented by governments and predates commerce? Tax sticks from oh 2000 years or so after the first known use gold and silver on the British Isle as a medium of exchange? You all should read Fiat Money Inflation in France. The French Revolutionaries agree with you whole heartedly. You can see how it worked out for them: societal collapse, guillotines, and then Napoleon to clean it all up.

If you have a good job that’s always in demand, some non-recourse fixed rate debt on some real estate is probably the ultimate.

Couple more CNSWF.

Or when it becomes self aware and just wants to take a 2 hour lunch and get drunk at Chotchkie’s.

Massive streeeeeeeeeetch Then we are going to SPAC a 3D printed Crypto that will become the reserve currency of the metaverse.

I think you are kind of both right. Maybe the pendulum towards individuality and away from the sense of a community has swung too far. In other eras it would be seen as an obligation of the most powerful to help to fix these things and would have been dangerous to their position and status for them to “do them” only. But in our current epoch, Milu is right. It will probably swing back and probably already is swinging back.

CNSWF. Very exciting way to start the day. Made me miss the tariff tantrum.

Ha yes, my bad

Had to laugh today when NVDA invested 100 MM in Open AI.

I still find things that are obliviously not being looked at correctly by the market. Also, every time I try to tinker with LLMs I get nothing but very deceptive garbage. But that’s just me.

Two random polls? Real Clear Politics aggregates all of these and puts them in charts. Check it out.

Completely untrue. Looking at RealClear Politics average right now. From April 2023 on Biden never got above 44% and was as low 38% multiple times. So far Trump is averaging around 46% this term. Rasmussen, which has a much better pulse on America than most judging on past election polling results, just released one with Trump at 51%.

This is a troubling development for me as a more classic conservative. Along with tariffs, intel ownership, executive orders and on and on. If you are looking at history, it is much more like a Caesar vs the Roman Senate moment than a Hitler moment. The commonality then and apparently now is that many of the people were and are asking for it. Trumps approval rating has been incredibly sticky because he “gets stuff done”. Kimmel’s ratings were terrible and ABC was paying him way too much. Easy out for them. Trump may not have had much to do with their motives.

Some craziness out of NY. Kathy Hochul endorses Mamdani. Dozens camp outside NYC courthouse chanting “Free Luigi” and buying and selling Mangione merch. Feels like we are rapidly nearing the point that if you own any property or value any sort of societal order, you are going to have to stop supporting (D) candidates.

Also, in the text messages he is really worried about his dad and his grandfather and them not getting the granddad’s special rifle back. “I think that was a 2k scope” He still seems to have feelings for his granddad and dad. But it doesn’t cross his mind to think of the pain he will cause them when their son/grandson is an infamous murderer that may get the death penalty.

Text messages with the lover are now out. The boyfriend seems as shocked as anyone. When he asks why, Robinson says ”I had enough of his hatred. Some hate can’t be negotiated out.” So that should bury both the left trying not to claim him and the right thinking it was a multi-party conspiracy.

The question was “how could corporate bonds ever have a lower rate than US treasuries” I said a conceivable scenario is one in which the US system deteriorates to the point in which it makes sense for corporates to pay interest in something other than possibly rapidly depreciating USD. It has happened many times.

https://www.bundesbank.de/resource/blob/616602/e6a2f4aef2190c3ae1d28fe0fb6e9534/472B63F073F071307366337C94F8C870/rye-money-and-rye-loans-during-the-weimar-republic-data.pdf Interesting blip about Rye and other commodity backed bonds in the Weimar Republic.

There were US Civil War bonds with interest and principal paid in gold. Many other examples Pine Creek Railway company bond interest paid in gold. Confederate bonds paid in cotton. Very common in hyper-inflation for bonds to switch to a commodity.

Corp bonds could be issued in another currency or could be backed by or pay interest in gold, Bitcoin, etc. if things got really bad. US gov could force bond holders to take a haircut in exchange for protection as was discussed in Mar-a-Lago accord rumors. A lot of things could happen and probably will if the US remains such a bad debtor.

Yes you will be paid but you may have to use it as TP or as a fire starter.

Yeah those texts book were written by Americans during our golden age (1950s) Truth is kingdoms, nations throughout history have defaulted fairly often.

Just a general observation. I like listening to old BRK meetings while I work. I thought I would try a DJCO meeting to mix it up having never listened to one. At the BRK meeting Charlie usually says “I have nothing further to add” unless he has something very important to add. I always had the impression that Charlie was just maybe more secretive and didn’t always want to show BRKs hand. At DJCO he has to answer every question and I was left with a totally different feeling. I was left thinking wow this guy really thinks very highly of himself and actually has some very bad half baked ideas. No wonder he likes killing his ideas so much. Not trying to belittle Charlie, just as a personal lesson maybe I should keep my mouth shut unless I really know.