Haryana

In recently concluded World Cup, India was the only country to win all 9 round-robin matches. Then they won the semi-final and lost the final; which was a loss after winning streak of 10. You can call that a shooting star or going down in flames, depending on your bias/propaganda. https://www.cricketworldcup.com/standings Regardless, India is currently #1 on all three formats of Cricket: 1. Men's T20I Team Rankings https://www.icc-cricket.com/rankings/mens/team-rankings/t20i 2. Men's ODI Team Rankings https://www.icc-cricket.com/rankings/mens/team-rankings/odi 3. Men's Test Team Rankings https://www.icc-cricket.com/rankings/mens/team-rankings/test

More interesting commentary from Samer Hakoura of Alphyn Capital Management, LLC Letter to investors, Q4 2022 https://www.alphyncap.com/uploads/1/4/1/2/14123551/acml_2022-q4.pdf " Fairfax shares have remained flat over five years despite this quarter's solid share price performance. I had a conversation with someone in the company's investor relations department and asked what feedback they might be getting from investors regarding the medium-term share price performance. Were investors still upset with the company for the expensive and ill-timed macro hedges from years ago? His response was interesting: growth investors are attracted to different companies during boom times, and deep value investors look for badly beaten down companies that could rebound aggressively. Unfortunately, Fairfax doesn't easily fit into either of those categories and has largely been ignored for the last few years. I read a report recently that described Fairfax as a "non-obvious growth stock," and I think the description is appropriate. From looking at the share price over the last five years, you would not know that Fairfax has been executing on several metrics. Consider that Fairfax's "gross premiums written" per share has compounded almost 18% from 2015-2021. It grew a further 19% in the first nine months of 2023). The insurance business is, of course, the engine of Fairfax's growth. With Fairfax's disciplined underwriting, insurance has averaged 2% profit for the last five years. Insurance also generates float, which the company reinvests. Float per share has grown 7% a year from 2017-2022, and Fairfax's investment portfolio has, in turn, increased from just under $28bn in 2015 to $51.5bn as of Q3 2021. As Fairfax generates a total return of approximately 5.7% on its investments, on a simplified calculation, we can see how this process has led to an additional $1.3bn in profits for the company. As a result, Fairfax's book value per share has grown by over 13% per year for the last six years. When one also considers the company's capital allocation, such as the sale of its pet insurance business which added $42/share gain on sale, buybacks, and the opportunity for increased profitability in the bond portfolio from higher interest rates, and growth from improving the operations of some of its privately held businesses, it has plenty of opportunity to continue compounding at faster rates. The share price should eventually catch up with the company's underlying economics. "

Samer Hakoura Alphyn Capital https://www.alphyncap.com/uploads/1/4/1/2/14123551/acml_2023-q3.pdf " The long game “The daily blips of the market are, in fact, noise -- noise that is very difficult for most investors to tune out.” – Seth Klarman Investing in the stock market can often test one’s patience. There are stretches of time when returns seem stagnant or even negative. Fairfax Financial serves as an apt illustration. Throughout our almost 5-year holding period, our investment in Fairfax has compounded at approximately 17% per annum, closely matching its impressive 25-year record of book value growth. However, it did not grow over a straight line. Fairfax’s share price largely stagnated for nearly five years of ownership, impacted by short-term issues, including macroeconomic uncertainties, underperforming investments, and challenges with operating companies arising from the pandemic. Yet, over the last year, the shares rallied as the market began to recognize its robust insurance business and the benefits of a favorable insurance market, and the company’s patient, long-term capital allocation began to bear fruit. Had I lost patience and sold the shares at any point, we would have given up these returns and maybe shown a loss. It is natural to wonder if I could time my position entry better and miss the long sideways or negative periods. Unfortunately, I’ve found no reliable method of doing this. Despite numerous discussions with fellow investors and researching various market timing techniques—like moving averages and oscillators, interpreting short-term news, or trying to outsmart the market on next earnings “beats or misses” I haven’t found a reliable, practical approach. Most attempts to time investments may offer smoother journeys, but often at the cost of overall performance. At best, it’s a trade-off; at worst, it hampers overall returns. Of course, long-term holding is no guarantee of success, and our experience with Fairfax has not been replicated with all our holdings. Still, I believe that focusing on sound fundamental analysis, identifying undervalued companies, and maintaining a long-term perspective is more likely than not to lead to satisfactory outcomes. "

G&M on FDGE https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-farmers-edge-in-go-private-talks-for-tiny-fraction-of-ipo-price/

India’s VFX and animation industry booms with demand and innovation https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/blogs/voices/indias-vfx-and-animation-industry-booms-with-demand-and-innovation/ "... The Indian VFX and animation industry is projected to achieve a CAGR of 20% to 25%, reaching an estimated market value of INR 190 billion by 2025. The future looks promising, and we can anticipate more groundbreaking visual effects and animation work from India in the coming years."

That same report (reads like generated by AI) also includes the following: " Prem Watsa (Trades, Portfolio), the founder and CEO of Fairfax Financial Holdings, is a renowned investor often compared to Warren Buffett (Trades, Portfolio). With a career that began in 1974, Watsa has built a reputation for a conservative investment approach, focusing on long-term value and the prudent management of insurance float. Fairfax Financial's strategy, inspired by Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway, has been pivotal in achieving sustained growth and shareholder value. "

They likely hired directly from high school for filing official documents to save money and brownie points. I know nothing about how or what they hire but this allegation sounds credible based on what happened.

Negative news but thanks for "party popping" here as well! What made you move to your "new base in Kuala Lumpur"?

https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/us-invests-553-million-in-adanis-sri-lanka-port-to-curb-chinas-influence US Invests $553 Million in Adani's ... ... For Adani, US money may offer a stamp of legitimacy after allegations of fraud by short seller Hindenburg Research erased billions from the conglomerate’s market value earlier this year. The deepwater West Container Terminal in Colombo is the US government agency’s largest infrastructure investment in Asia, and among its biggest globally. It will bolster Sri Lanka’s economic growth and “its regional economic integration, including with India, a key partner to both countries,” DFC said in a statement. The funding is part of a global acceleration of DFC investments that totaled $9.3 billion in 2023. “It is a high priority for the US to be active in the Indo-Pacific region,” Scott Nathan, the DFC’s chief executive officer told reporters in Colombo Wednesday. “It is obviously the engine of economic growth for the world.” ...

Likely be fine with them taking 10 tiny positions if even just 3 of them become home runs. National Stock Exchange was also a tiny position until we got it in the rear view mirror. Jaynix and Maxop are likely to benefit from expected boom in manufacturing over decades.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/stocks/BND-Q/pressreleases/21252268/whats-worse-than-the-dot-com-crash-the-bond-market/ What’s Worse Than the Dot Com Crash? The Bond Market! "From 2008 to today, total public government debt has increased from $9 trillion to $33.58 trillion. By the time you read this, it will be over $33.6 trillion. The treasury department sells bonds to help pay the interest payments on that debt. That said, they are selling more bonds than ever before. To get buyers to purchase these bonds, they are forced to offer higher yields, which pushes the price of bonds down. The recent downgrade by Fitch Ratings made the situation worse by bringing into question the US’s ability to make the interest payments they owe."

Let us say there are 100 shares with value 21 and price 13. They buyback 2.5 shares paying 13 each for a total of 32.5. Now they are left with equity of 2100-32.5 and 97.5 shares. New BVPS is 2067.5/97.5=~21.21, so yeah just about 1% gain.

About 200mm of loss on bonds in Q3 vs ~400mm of loss in Q2. This was more than offset by gains on equities however the majority of that equity gain came from thier own stock TRS. “Net gains on investments of $56.0 million in the quarter was principally comprised of mark to market gains on common stocks of $273.3 million, which was largely offset by mark to market losses on bonds of $196.7 million due to continued rising interest rates. “ Fairfax India also seem to have done quite well with book value approaching $21 with the stock stuck about $12 something.

Take a shot at this one

About half the current market cap?

Keeping the duration low is likely their most important decision. Otherwise people will call this a "windfall" from unpredictable interest rates. Certainly, interest rates are unpredictable. However, the cyclical nature of the markets is well known. When you reach the South Pole, the only way you can go anywhere is North.

107 The number of medals India won at the Hangzhou Asian Games. Unprecedented. Record-shattering, history making. India are now only the fourth nation to cross the 100-medal mark at an Asiad. This is a 52% increase from India's previous best haul (70, set last time at Jakarta 2018). https://www.espn.com/espn/story/_/id/38601620/107-asian-games-medals-india-100-496-record-numbers-defined-asiad-hangzhou-2022-campaign

Maybe his highness was pleased with my posting of his favorite mug shot.

The Internment - 1944 That blanket seizure of all assets from innocent Japanese Canadians by the government of British Columbia looks like more relevant and worth knowing! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internment_of_Japanese_Canadians ...Canada forcibly relocated and incarcerated over 22,000 Japanese Canadians—comprising over 90% of the total Japanese Canadian population—from British Columbia in the name of "national security". The majority were Canadian citizens by birth and were targeted based on their ancestry. ...The internment in Canada included the theft, seizure, and sale of property belonging to this forcefully displaced population, which included fishing boats, motor vehicles, houses, farms, businesses, and personal belongings. ...In August 1944, Prime Minister Mackenzie King announced that Japanese Canadians were to be moved east out of the British Columbia Interior. The official policy stated that Japanese Canadians must move east of the Rocky Mountains or be deported to Japan following the end of the war. https://www.canadashistory.ca/explore/military-war/japanese-canadian-internment "After Japan attacked Pearl Harbor in 1941, both the United States and Canada cracked down on their citizens of Japanese descent. In British Columbia, entire Japanese-Canadian neighbourhoods were eradicated. Homes and possessions belonging to Japanese-Canadians were seized and sold."

So the system entertains that there be his kind of royal that is allowed to jump the estimation by >22% in one shot while continuously maintaining an evaluation of overvalued.

US Mission to India surpasses one million Visa US envoy to India, Eric Garcetti, expresses happiness over surpassing the goal to process one million non-immigrant visa applications in 2023. | https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/videos/news/us-mission-to-india-surpasses-one-million-visa/videoshow/104010979.cms

I was unable to find further details with a quick search so removed that reference and updated that post with new research.

https://hbr.org/2023/09/is-india-the-worlds-next-great-economic-power ... Bank balance sheets are stronger and credit markets are functioning well. It’s telling that many Indian banks are valued higher than U.S. peers. HDFC Bank — which merged with its parent, mortgage lender HDFC — has a market capitalization of $171 billion, making it the 4th largest financial company in the world. Even before the merger, the 29-year-old upstart was more valuable than the 154-year-old Goldman Sachs. ... https://www.bernstein.com/our-insights/insights/2023/articles/indias-new-look-paving-roads-to-efficiency-and-investment.html ... In our view, improvements in infrastructure and business efficiency will cascade across the economy, creating positive business dynamics for many Indian companies. Potential beneficiaries include domestic banks and infrastructure-related companies in construction, commercial vehicles, cement, steel and real estate. ...

https://www.gfmag.com/magazine/october-2023/central-banker-report-cards-2023