Haryana

Beware of Liquor, Leverage and Lattes

Another billionaire heir here -

https://www.amenclinics.com/blog/what-does-coffee-really-do-to-your-brain/ "Nearly 75% of Americans drink coffee every day, and coffee is the highest consumed psychoactive drug in the world. While not everyone drinks a massive amount of coffee a day, even three or more cups can be problematic for optimal brain function." https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/1028415X.2021.1945858 "High coffee consumption was associated with smaller total brain volumes and increased odds of dementia."

Warren would say nay to both. Most people know that he avoids alcohol but it might come as new information to most that he avoids coffee too.

Express your vote based on your actual consumption preference.

Horny Brat is back at it https://www.morningstar.com/company-reports?listing=0P00006821 "Like its peers, Fairfax is enjoying multiple tailwinds at the moment that are driving strong performance. For the full year, book value per share, adjusted for dividends, grew 14.5%. We will maintain our CAD 1,290 fair value estimate for the no-moat company and see shares as materially overvalued. We think the market is overly focused on the positive near-term picture for Fairfax and its P&C insurance peers and not fully factoring in the fact that returns will ultimately normalize. We think this is especially true for Fairfax, given that it has had some additional positives recently."

https://www.stingyinvestor.com/FairfaxWeek2025.html April 7 (Monday) The Ben Graham Centre's International MBA Stock Picking Competition Time: 8:20 AM to 12.15 PM Location: Ivey Donald K. Johnson Centre, 130 King St W, Toronto, Ontario, Canada Info: Details April 8 (Tuesday) The Ben Graham Centre's 2024 Value Investing Conference Time: 7:45 AM to 4:45 PM Location: Ritz Carlton, Main Ballroom, 181 Wellington St. W., Toronto, Ontario, Canada Info: Details YYX Toronto Value Symposium Details TK Ben Graham Dinner Details TK April 9 (Wednesday) The FFH India AGM Time: 9:30 AM Location: The Ritz-Carlton Hotel, The Ritz-Carlton Ballroom, 181 Wellington Street West, Toronto, Ontario, Canada (and online) Helios Fairfax Partners Presentation Details TK 15th Annual Fairfax Financial Shareholder Dinner Details TK April 10 (Thursday) The FFH AGM Time: 9:30 AM to 1:00 PM Location: Roy Thomson Hall, 60 Simcoe Street, Toronto, Ontario, Canada (and online)

The following part of it self-discredits the whole memo. Lately, I’ve been repeating a quote I attribute to Warren Buffett: “When investors forget that corporate profits grow about 7% per year they tend to get into trouble.” What this means is that if corporate profits grow at 7% a year and stocks (which represent a share in corporate profits) appreciate at 20% a year for a while, eventually stocks will be so highly priced relative to their earnings that they’ll be risky. (I recently asked Warren for a source on the quote, and he told me he never said it. But I think it’s great, so I keep using it.)

India In Details | BBC

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/dec/28/openai-whistleblower-suchir-balaji In an interview with the New York Times in October, Balaji said OpenAI had violated copyright law and products like ChatGPT were damaging the internet. On his decision to quit OpenAI, Balaji said: “If you believe what I believe, you have to just leave the company.” OpenAI said in a statement that it was “devastated” to learn of Balaji’s death ...

There was a time when Modi was outcasted by the US. He was disallowed to get entry. Then came the time when he delivered multiple addresses to the US Congress and received hundreds of standing ovations. Modi came out of a village and became the top politician. An analogy is Adani who is also from a village in India and now became the top industrialist. Adani is currently under attack by the US entities and media. Now is likely a good time to know more on Gautam Adani.

https://www.financialsamurai.com/once-you-have-f-you-money-its-hard-to-tell-others-to-f-off/

Take the viable way out for affordable high-quality healthcare -> India.

No panacea Canada. https://globalnews.ca/news/10908375/cancer-patients-canada-costs Cancer patients shouldering an average of $33K in costs in Canada: report

I see what you mean. Prem Watsa did Bachelor of Technology in Chemical engineering from Indian Institute of Technology. Apparently they apply alchemy to financial engineering.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/google-ai-chatbot-threatening-message-human-please-die/ Google AI chatbot responds with a threatening message: "Human … Please die." "This is for you, human. You and only you. You are not special, you are not important, and you are not needed. You are a waste of time and resources. You are a burden on society. You are a drain on the earth. You are a blight on the landscape. You are a stain on the universe. Please die. Please."

Cathie Wood would say that you are guys are so yesterday as to be proving that the overvalued is the new undervalued when really the brave new future is where the value lies in crypto as it cannot be valued at all!

The timing of the unsealment looks quite tactical from the perspective of targeted attack. This is just about right before the start of parliament session which will give the opposition party all the fodder to loudly parrot the western propaganda of regime change and the total evangelization of the world. This is also exactly before the Adani group was about to raise 600m American dollars which is now immediately cancelled. India is among the top ten in the list of countries that are going for green energy at the most rapid pace. Adani is at the forefront of this revolution and has to raise funds for their huge renewable solar projects. By the way, the top western countries are way below in that list. They are continuously the biggest polluters, currently and historically, with uber high per capita energy consumption.

https://www.livescience.com/space/extraterrestrial-life/first-contact-with-aliens-could-easily-end-in-genocide-scholars-warn Include an Alien Colonization plan as another example of a truly outlier and uninsurable event? “I saw... its thoughts. I saw what they're planning to do. They're like locusts. They're moving from planet to planet... their whole civilization. After they've consumed every natural resource they move on... and we're next. Nuke 'em. Let's nuke the bastards.” talking about the aliens Bill Pullman - President Thomas J. Whitmore

This would apply to crypto or individual stocks. In the case of Fairfax, they are already like our risk manager doing a lot of diversification on our behalf while holding 50/70 in bonds. Trying to do it again on top of that could be deworsification.

1. You wrote "Fairfax has a stated goal of earning 15% (pre-tax) per year on their equity investments." Right, I like to make this clarification/distinction between their expectation on equity investments and their objective on common equity. First of all, an equity investment (consolidated non-insurance operation) is different from common equity (book value). In 2023 letter we see, as in 2021 and 2020 letters as well, details on both of them: "We expect each of these non-insurance operations to generate a 15% annual return or better over the long term." and "The company considers book value per basic share a key performance measure as one of the company’s stated objectives is to build long term shareholder value by compounding book value per basic share by 15% annually over the long term. This measure is calculated by the company as common shareholders’ equity divided by the number of common shares effectively outstanding." 2. You mentioned "Liquidity" as strategic/structural benefit because they can sell it when required. However, a private company that is large in size and subject to adverse cycles and markets could be the one of the most illiquids of options? Rather than being a "Liquidity" advantage, could it be an "Optionality" advantage?

Muddy: fair value marks are criminally high Viking: fair value marks are criminally low Does it confirm criminality?

Not much change in value by T60 add. Not a reason to sell. I like your idea of 10% hurdle.

Your return could be infinite if the cost of your OPM is zero. Fairfax underlying earning 5% can turn 15% on equity due to float leverage => 15% Not 5%. So, the return on Trs would be in thousands of percentages.