Haryana

Ncib where N means Normal.

Wild Estimates Breakdown (all in US$mm) 1. Consolidated Insurance = 500 2. Consolidated Non-insurance = 100 3. Interest and dividends = 600 4. Share of profit of associates = 200 5. Net gains on investments = 1000 6. Debt and Corporate Expenses = (300) 7. Income tax and minority = (300) Net Earnings = 1800 -> Q2EPS = $90

@SafetyinNumbers features in TGAM again https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/investment-ideas/article-tfsa-investment-stocks-risk-reward Finance professional grows his TFSA to a million dollars with a handful of stocks MKO-X Mako Mining Corp FISH-X Sailfish Royalty Corp FFH-T Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd

William Dalrymple https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/sep/01/hidden-story-ancient-india-west-maths-astronomy-historians Brahmagupta was not alone, and he viewed himself as standing on the shoulders of an earlier Indian genius, Aryabhata (476–550). The ideas of these two men, bringing together the mathematical learning of ancient India, travelled first to the Arab world, then far to the west, giving us not only crucial mathematical concepts such as zero, but the very form of the numbers we use today. It was they who perfected the numeral system in use around the world, arguably the nearest thing the human race has to a universal language; yet in the west, we attribute our numerals to the Arabs from whom we borrowed them, not the Indians who actually invented them. Although we in the west are almost entirely unaware of it, Indian learning, religious insights and ideas are among the crucial foundations of our world.

A large number of Fairfax leaders here - https://www.pressreader.com/canada/national-post-latest-edition/20250423/281689735667035 These 74 Friends of Free Enterprise in Canada are supporting Pierre Poilievre because they share his resolve to foster investment and job creation, restore fiscal discipline, make our tax system more competitive and develop our natural resources to let Canadians dream big and build boldly. The last 10 years under Liberal government have seen Canadian productivity stall and our economic growth fall far behind other leading nations. This cannot continue, and the choice is clear: let’s vote for Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives for a change!

https://www.crisisinvesting.com/p/gold-vs-the-s-and-p-500

Beware of Liquor, Leverage and Lattes

https://www.amenclinics.com/blog/what-does-coffee-really-do-to-your-brain/ "Nearly 75% of Americans drink coffee every day, and coffee is the highest consumed psychoactive drug in the world. While not everyone drinks a massive amount of coffee a day, even three or more cups can be problematic for optimal brain function." https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/1028415X.2021.1945858 "High coffee consumption was associated with smaller total brain volumes and increased odds of dementia."

Express your vote based on your actual consumption preference.

There was a time when Modi was outcasted by the US. He was disallowed to get entry. Then came the time when he delivered multiple addresses to the US Congress and received hundreds of standing ovations. Modi came out of a village and became the top politician. An analogy is Adani who is also from a village in India and now became the top industrialist. Adani is currently under attack by the US entities and media. Now is likely a good time to know more on Gautam Adani.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/google-ai-chatbot-threatening-message-human-please-die/ Google AI chatbot responds with a threatening message: "Human … Please die." "This is for you, human. You and only you. You are not special, you are not important, and you are not needed. You are a waste of time and resources. You are a burden on society. You are a drain on the earth. You are a blight on the landscape. You are a stain on the universe. Please die. Please."

Muddy: fair value marks are criminally high Viking: fair value marks are criminally low Does it confirm criminality?

Your return could be infinite if the cost of your OPM is zero. Fairfax underlying earning 5% can turn 15% on equity due to float leverage => 15% Not 5%. So, the return on Trs would be in thousands of percentages.

The discount may turn to premium in 1 year or 5 years but the points being: 1. The fee is already paid on the increase in book value 2. Whenever the share price catches up to book value, all that gain will be fee-free 3. Upto 5% of additional gain each year is also fee-free 4. Buyer has benefit that fee on the increased book is already paid-for by the seller

While it is easier to use the notional amount for understanding and presentation, this position is very much different from plain buyback because of the amount of actual cash used. The usused cash had a lot of alternatives which would have added a very large amount of return. For example, either by use on the insurance business at the right time or on any investment. The main item used for this position is a contract and its inherent risk. Not cash. Throwing a wild guess, the leverage might be of 5 to 10 times. Return on the cash used could be of the order of over 1000%.

"2024 third quarter results, which will be announced after the close of markets on Thursday, October 31" https://www.fairfax.ca/press-releases/fairfax-announces-conference-call-2/

A few points with references to the recent 2-part post by @Viking : 1. "When should an investor sell an investment? According to Peter Lynch, a pretty smart guy, an investor should sell an investment when the story / fundamentals take a turn for the worse. Pretty simple. " FIH Implication: The India story / fundamentals remain the same as before and actually improving. 2. "Who got Fairfax the most wrong? The haters. Their hate stopped them from being rational. It stopped them from looking at the company objectively. " FIH Implication: Fairfax India is irrationally hated at the moment like Fairfax was hated 3 - 4 years ago. 3. "The three most important words in investing are margin of safety.” Warren Buffett “It is extraordinary to me that the idea of buying dollar bills for 40 cents takes immediately with people or doesn't take at all.” Warren Buffett FIH Implication: FIH market price might be just about 40% of its instrinsic value with future growth rate. 4. “Be patient. The stocks that have been most rewarding to me have made their greatest gains in the third or fourth year I owned them. A few took ten years.” Peter Lynch FIH Implication: This is where the hard work comes into play as selling could be a big emotional relief.

Appreciated information on Appeal. Most people know just about derogatory news from a lower court. A minority of the minority shareholders can always find reason to complain even if Fairfax saved them. Fairfax actually made those companies survive otherwise they would have gone bankrupt much earlier. Remember this guy who was complaining in advance that Fairfax may buyout the Blackberry too cheap. https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/concerned-shareholder-urges-blackberry-board-to-guard-against-unfair-buyout-bids-and-oppose-watsa-as-director-as-board-considers-strategic-alternatives-301858167.html "Based on comparative values of companies like CrowdStrike and CyberArk, it is not overly optimistic to project BlackBerry's stock price to be $15-$25/share in the next 12-18 months if John Chen and his team can achieve their realistic projections."

This looks like a Tim Horton's type of company for Canadians. When Tim Horton's was a public company, I used to think that this was the type of business that Buffett would be interested in for how much it gets brand loyalty from Canadians. Canadians love their own brands and whatever is uniquely Canadian. Not having a Sleep Country USA is an advantage. Eventually, Buffett invested a part in Tim Horton's through 3G Capital. "Since its 2010 acquisition of Burger King Holdings, 3G Capital has been the company's largest shareholder supporting the company's global growth transformation including the creation of RBI and acquisitions of Tim Hortons, Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen, and Firehouse Subs, generating approximately 21x in total shareholder returns" https://www.rbi.com/English/news/news-details/2022/Restaurant-Brands-International-Inc.-Appoints-Patrick-Doyle-as-Executive-Chairman-to-Accelerate-Growth/default.aspx Really impressed by how in the middle of all the greed, insanity, FOMO, crypto, AI, ... they still have the discipline to buy a boring business that is about the most basic of human needs, even more basic than food. Mattress is one thing that would be the biggest hassle to order online and then keep returning back and forth until you found right fit. You go to a store and you test for the firmness by lying on it to get feel to your body. Regardless, they also have online brands for direct delivery to less sensitive sleepers. Mattress is more necessary than furniture. Sleep is the best medicine, especially for an aging population. There might be scope for medical innovation as already discussed here. Also, worth re-repeating, they have 35-40% market share in Canada, making a no-brainer. Found a good report here including great details: https://www.fairwayresearch.com/p/sleep-country-deep-dive-tsx-zzz "While the mattress industry has been in turmoil, Sleep Country has delivered strong financial performance along with an increasing market share in Canada from 23% in 2015 to 37% in 2022."

Could this change to New Fairfax from old be totally unrelated to depature of ex President Paul Rivett? I mean look at this press release. They are telling how he is going to retire full time and that is all to it. "Paul Rivett has decided to retire as President of Fairfax in order to spend full time with his family." https://www.fairfax.ca/press-releases/fairfax-financial-holdings-limited-executive-announcement-2020-10-13/ Just 2 years later we learn of him fighting hard and bitter on corporate control. "The clash of the media barons: Inside Jordan Bitove and Paul Rivett's battle to control Torstar" https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-torstar-ownership-jordan-bitove-paul-rivett/ "After airing dirty laundry publicly, warring Torstar partners retreating behind closed doors" https://nationalpost.com/news/publisher-apologizes-to-staff-for-public-spectacle-as-bitter-toronto-star-feud-heads-to-court

this from your transcript on Fairfax India Prem: "India is going to have that same opportunity. As someone was saying here that the financial system grows at a multiple of nominal growth. So the nominal growth is 10%, 12%, this will grow at 2, 2.5x, maybe even more. And that's just the industry. And then on top of that, if you're good and our guys are very good, they'll grow faster than that." What this translates to is a potential of 30% CAGR over 30 years.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/rob-magazine/article-highest-paid-ceos-canada-company-performance/ Blackberry is the king here with way up highest compensation and way up highest loss. Even Air Canada cannot match it.

Let me throw these two with regards to Book Value vs Earnings: 1. For many years, investors were complaining for lack of earnings at Fairfax. The book value was still growing and the stock was undervalued compared to market based on book value but then the investors were taking the excuse of lack of earnings. Now they have put their focus on book value to find a new excuse. 2. Mr. Buffett spoke about how he was hesitant to purchase See's Candies at 3 times book value but then Mr. Munger said it was worth that due to being just six times earnings. We understand that Fairfax as an insurance financial is usually valued using book value, how can we completely ignore the earnings power?

Thanks to all the participants for equally dividing themselves on each team unless it was some magical golden triangulation of coincidence. The stage is set for an epic showdown between the Yes team and the No team with multiple heavyweights (just brain weight) on each side.