Luke

The state of the US in one picture and why the party will go on:

Ahahahha holy fuck cant believe its real.

LOL, meanwhile the CCP thinks about how to develop semiconductor and robots while trump pushes trumpster hawk tuah coin and melania coin, maybe there is hope for china afterall xD

Yes, but your thesis is based on adoption and now every country in the world sees the president of the largest economy launching meme coins for him and his wife Those kind of things are what makes people skeptical and IMO adoption will take a hit due to our Trump and dump! Btw why would i short bitcoin, why would i short anything in the first place.

Honestly all of this is very bearish for bitcoin and crypto. Trump destroying the legitimacy of crypto in a heartbeat and creating tons of negative associations...

We will see, In my home country there are no tax-free accounts unfortunately All world Indices are always something good to own with a long enough time frame and not absurd valuations. Cheers!

I have changed my mind the last few weeks, i think the market is fairly priced and there is no obvious crash imminent, rather the opposite with trump going lower on rates and making american shareholders happy. Tesla is at 1.5T because the CEO is now best buddy with the president of the largest economy in the world, has free reign and no regulatory barriers for anything. So while 1.5T seems expensive on first glance, he has a lot of freedom to create value and push other companies out of their market positions. My family purchased significant amounts of all world index fonds recently and i first thought maybe wait for cheaper valuations but i think you will do well buying the index from here!

I think we are at a point in time where markets will never have crashes as they did in previous decades, especially not the US markets. There is way too much money involved; stocks became essential infrastructure via pensions, and livelihoods never have been as dependent on them as before. The politicians have massive incentives to keep stocks up, just look at trump who is willing to interfere with the FED to pump markets, or pump even crypto. Seeing what trump pulled off the last year and him being in office for the next 4 with that team should scare every bear. Managements do more buybacks than previously, the index has such a strong earnings growth based on really high quality...i think waiting for a crash or shorting any of these companies is an exercise in futility. I have followed this thread for 3 years now and any bearish comments have been plain wrong and right now i am fully convinced that they will continue to be wrong.

If those wars are won you would basically have 1.5b additional consumers that join western markets, with the right US president the SP 500 would explode afterwards.

I think for the US and Taiwan it makes the most sense to just acknowledge the republic of china as a legitimate independent country and risk war with China. Taiwan could run a referendum for which they can easily get a majority to be independent, maybe even rename to republic of taiwan. IF there is a war then the US could use that to end the chinese government once and for all, although with a price to be paid consisting of some dead soldiers on both sides, the world would afterwards have much better stability. Possibly EU troops could also fight there, maybe a combination on both the russian front as well as chinese front.

Yep, thats the goal of the western/US politics. Best case is CCP falls due to so much economic and internal unrest, then some sort of democracy can be established and candidates be financed that integrate themselves into the US/EU order. Then only North Korea/Russia and the Islamic regimes have to fall+some trouble makers in SA and Africa.

Yes of course, the ideal case is Taiwan establishing independence via referendum and gets acknowledged worldwide. And then china accepts it too. Is that realistic though? Anyways folks, i am out of china stocks just now. No more energy with all this geopolitical non sense and war games, takes up way too much mental energy and china moves nowhere for years while the US outperforming on all fronts. I was the last bullish man standing but admit defeat and mistake.

I completely exited every china holding just a few min ago. Big pile of cash ready to be deployed in something else. I surrender finally What stocks should i buy?

It was probably a huge strategic mistake by western elites to internationally isolate Taiwan so much but at the same time support so much of its high tech growth.

Regarding Taiwan this comment is thought provoking, by Adam Tooze: