Luca

Its okay for the US to have belt and road initiatives all around the world, building military bases in the pacific but when china does it its very dangerous and we all have to work together to stop them...Macron sees it the right way: https://www.politico.eu/article/emmanuel-macron-china-america-pressure-interview/

Is that actually so, its not like you cant make a living as a software engineer in china...

Its obvious that the current economic powers are anxious and desperate and try to bully china as much as they can. ,,Disrupt our business communities and financial industries,, also tells you what this is about $$$$.

Really worrying tone for a congress member. https://www.congress.gov/member/mike-gallagher/G000579 ,,The CCP is the enemy of freedom,, ,,belt and road initiative dangerous,, ,,global competition and ideological competition,, ,,not allowing the CCP to coerce our business community, financial industry,, ,,get on the same page to push back against the CCP,, Some americans see it like this fellow: Its okay for china to exist as long as they do exactly what the US wants from them. As long as the US can install a government that adheres to their needs and wants. The belt and road initiative is called ,,dangerous,, but Apple can operate sweatshops in China where workers suicide themselves regularly...

Completely exited Micron, Samsung, Amazon and proceeds went into FFH and Exor

Yeah id say thats right, although the degree of protection is debatable. And thats they key, finding the right balance. China will just do what helps them to become a superpower and prosperous, they sometimes will face a wall but the goals are pretty clear and the work ethic is high. This is a good example of the economic war dynamics: https://innovationorigins.com/en/chinese-export-ban-on-asml-is-shortsighted-hypocritical-and-counterproductive/ The recent extension of the export ban on ASML only came about because of enormous pressure from the US. That the Netherlands agreed to it is hypocritical for three reasons. First, China still has plenty of room to continue building military equipment. Most of the chip technology used for military purposes comes from machines of a previous generation. These may still be sold to China. But there is more: a big difference between selling chip machines (banned!) and the chips themselves (allowed!). Believe it or not, the most advanced chips made with banned machines can still be sold to Chinese companies. They then come from Taiwan or even the U.S. The U.S. market authorities have no problem with that. American Business benefits a lot by these rather arbitrary export bans, not exactly promoting competition. What would be the effect ot these bans: Because if we, even from eight thousand kilometers away, have come to see one aspect of China very clearly, it must be its immense research and development power. Nowhere more universities, nowhere more engineering graduates, nowhere more government money pumped into technology. Combine that with its great ability to copy (ASML knows all about it), and you know this country won’t leave any moment unused. Short-sighted, hypocritical, and counterproductive, that’s what it is. And if there are any positive effects, they are short-term at best. Why has it come to this? Because the European strategic autonomy, so fervently propagated, is still a sham. Because we fear losing the U.S. if yet another European country is compromised. Because Washington and not Brussels or The Hague determines the line of march. The export ban on ASML proves that a position on the world stage on the same level as China and the United States is not yet reserved for Europe.

Will read the article later @UK But just looking at this massive front picture: Its clear which message the WSJ wants to send here, Xi Jinping reminding of Hitler on that picture, 8 anonymous guys in black standing in a room in front of the picture, as if it would be a secret conspiratory meeting against the peaceful west...its difficult to have a neutral view on china also because of the massive western media that just prints out more and more catastrophic articles (viewers seem to like it). China is a communist country and our enemy!!

I think ANY competitive advantage would be a stretch @Spekulatius but yeah, GDP and productivity growth comes before all-time high SP 500 profit margins, innovation and investment before buybacks and dividends, question is where will china and their economy stand longterm versus western countries, i could easily imagine china being the dominant player in many more fields in the future. The trade wars are just one of these signs of possible disruption from china and western anxiety of economic shifts. And except the rich western economies, many are happy to do business with the chinese (which also look out to have satisfied customers). Heck france even started leaning out more to china in macrons recent visit. @Dinar Thank you for sharing, no its not a joke. One can spend hours over hours on doomscrolling why China will collapse or why the US will collapse, or why there will be a third world war. Just look at what china created the last 20 years, look at how many countries have china as their biggest trading partner. Then the pace of innovation and development in the coastal area. This talk of ,,everybody is leaving china,, ,,they have huge water problems,, ,,the birthrate is dropping,, is just temporary noise for the most part. The long term trend line looks impressive.

That said, we never had the size of some businesses today ever in our history (outside of the dutch east india company perhaps) and they were a brutal monopoly that crushed countries, workers and made profits for a nieche aristocracy. Arguably good for the shareholders back then (until it crumbled due to corruption, adminstrative issues). Remains to be seen what the regulative side in the US will do to some mega caps.

If i would bet on a society and economy that will be world leading in a decade id bet on china, as problematic some things are. Owning a strong business that is playing both in china and globally is still a really good position.

Well, i think there is a pendulum to be found between monopolies and competition and the pendulum in china is shifting and they will plan to shift it even more. I think it will be much harder for many businesses than it is the case in the US. One could argue that is the reason why the SP 500 has higher margins, higher returns etc. On the other side i think one can make the case that general growth and inventiveness will lead to a more prosperous economy in total. I think strong and well managed businesses like Tencent or Alibaba, even regulated, will be good plays although they wont have it as easy. But combine it with the possible growth of the chinese economy and i think the picture looks much better. Its a bit in the too hard pile since we cant know how the CCP thinks about specific businesses but they also wont get rid of capitalism. I mean US has their own anti trust but its far weaker than in china, as we see in the markets reaction.

I also want to stress again that in china, contrary to what some may hear on the media, the competition in many sectors is incredibly brutal. China and the US have state capitalistic systems with one important more and more shifting difference: China is PRO market and the US and most of europe PRO Business. In a recent interview of the economist of the book i linked, she talked about how much competition by business there is just for simple daily use products and also how hard the economic existence for many people working in factories is. Common Prosperity should be understood as a pro market move because thats where consumers will win. No common prosperity and huge monopolies with concentrated rich owners, business with high pricing power, is the other side of the coin, pro business policies and an unregulated market. Taking the severe cuts into freedom of speech etc out of the picture, the CCPs goal is not to harm and milk out their citizens (as it is more the case in russia) but that china will become a flourishing modern developed socialist country: "prosperous, strong, democratic, culturally advanced, harmonious and beautiful" as said. What role will shareholders and business play here? Shareholders wont be treated as they are in the US. Regulation will be tougher and more unpredictable, possible tax and redistributions could happen. But that wont mean a return to a completely planned economy and starving for many. The chinese dont care which economist said what, they dont care what exact form of capitalism is the best according to the west, the system has to produce the above said results. They will never achieve that without markets, without investments, without shareholder returns. As long as one buys very strong and well managed businesses there will be returns made, possibly great returns. China is also trying desperatly to get around western patent rights IMO because they see it as ANTI Market. The more competition, the more innovation and the better their developments and GDP growth will become. It will also mean a much higher competitive environment than in the current western market.

1: Why cant Ukraine join Nato? ,,What would happen if mexico would join a chinese run international military alliance where heavy weapons are send to mexico with interoperability of chinese and mexican military systems, what would happen to mexico? They would be blown away´´ 2: Do you see an equivalance between nato and russia and china? ,,No, Nato is a much more agressive military alliance, nato has invaded Yugoslavia, libya, Ukraine, backed up the invasion in afghanistan, everybody outside of the west can see it but in the west you are not allowed to think it,, ,,Global south collapsing in ridicule, india, indonesia, south africa,,

Yeah...i added heavily after latest earnings...

Reduced my Micron Position at 10% Gain to add to Fairfax

0 fees, FFH bought over Gettex Munich

Sold half of my Samsung Position at a 5% loss and shifted proceeds into fairfax and left with some cash to deploy.

I think Fairfax is looking at 13Fs and at what others do and applies all the tools they have to create returns, probably cloning some positions, throwing in some own ideas, quite interesting.

Added to FFH and Exor. FFH now almost a 10% Position to me. Wanna see what the market does the next 3 years with the current set up...

Sorry, frauds? I mean you can be critical of their reporting and question leverage etc but call these businesses frauds? Where is the fraud here?

Yeah, it was pretty interesting to read that Phillips also gave Starter Capital to TSMC in the beginning. Thats where the very close ties to ASML come from...

Ah never mind, i think you are right

Micron now the biggest holding for Fairfax for the US in latest 13 F. Atlas was sold 100%, 220% increase for Occidental. Interesting!

Completely exited Amazon and moved proceeds into Exor, Brookfield and Texas Instruments. All IMO at more attractive valuations with increased upside

I regularly watch the Eiger 2008 record of ueli steck, especially the part from 1:07 gives me goose bumps, when the music slowly starts and he just races the mountain. Climbing in the himalayas is just something for itself i think, some sort of primitive experience, the community, the friendships made, the trust needed for the climbing. Goes a long way back into our DNA Of course dont push your luck too much and maybe stay below 7000 meters :D! Which other mountains did you climb already? Thank you so much for sharing the pics @nwoodman