Luca

Bloomstran is very very pessimistic about the big tech stocks, i find his amazon/alphabet valuations lacking detail and ignoring a lot of perspectives. Fair enough though that it is in his ,,too hard pile,,. He trashes about whats going on at meta but we can also trash about his disney holdings which isnt a company with spectacular management in the last years.

If i look at his valuation and look at berkshires valuation, how it is known as a safe heaven, at current valuation something between 7-10% seems reasonable as a CAGR for the next 10 years. Its not a bargain but a very safe investment without spectacular but quite safe returns.

Bloomstran 2022 letter is out.

Recently found some nice paragraphs of him about paramount, he posted it on twitter, explained a bit also why berkshire could have a position.

Well said. Thats at least high teens of billions of earnings not accounted for in berkshire. I dont know what the average PE of berkshires equity portfolio is, i guess something between 15-25. 300b of value, something between 15-20b. We cant know which positions are there not visible and what PE. That gives you an extra of up to 200b of marketcap value if you give it something like a 10x multiple which is low for the quality those businesses have. And i think this equity portfolio will compound at least 7% per annum, so 600b worth of an equity portfolio in 2032.

Did you include the investment income from the equity portfolio that is not accounted for due to no dividends etc? All these businesses earn a decent amount every year, 7b Portfolio. Wouldnt be surprised if this portfolio compounds at 7% and will double in 10 years at least. Compared to fairfax, the portfolio is bigger, isnt it.

I have shared this in the Pabrai blog before but since this thread is new i want to say it again. In general i agree with @Spekulatius description of turkey. Its not a market id like to be invested in. But now we had Pabrai sharing and essentially pumping two turkish stocks to the value investor community AFTER he made an investment in them, both with very small marketcaps where just inflows of a few thousand investors with little capital will 10x these businesses (which did happen and he praises himself for how smart he has been and how great he is with his research). Fair enough: He flew to turkey and visited some businesses his friend owns and found a buisness that was really undervalued for reasons @Spekulatius already described. Not fair enough: 100% against what buffett would do he shares these businesses on almost EVERY public speech to wealthy people and essentially pumping reysas more and more. He did it once again on the SumZero Competition end of Jan where he marketed reysas as still being investable but that the train might drive off soon (so you better call fidelity and execute that 80$ trading cost buy order!). With all my respect, i despise behaviour like that and it just smells like a pump. I would not be surprised if he sells this in a year or so after he made a 10x bagger and all the cloners are left with this buisness and very little information on its developments. I liked mohnish a lot before but since reysas and all the advertisement i get a bad feeling. Let me know what you guys think, i personally have no business i like and understand in turkey, no interest to dig through those markets aswell.

Well, we will maybe hear something about it at annual meeting

Would be my only idea, nothing changed with the buisness the last few months and china has just gotten more diplomatic and less hostile since xi secured third term. Maybe they wanted to buy more and noticed that the stock boomed after 13Fs so Buffett prefers just shopping outside of US because of all the cloners.

Could they have sold ADR Shares and buy Taiwan listed shares?

You know, although i hold a lot of Tencent/Prosus, i want to see the akward painful face of Mr. Xi Jin Ping when is own ,,people,, are leaving his ,,motherland,, because the political environment is so toxic. How Ironic, trying to bring people together while the result is the opposite. I wonder how delusional he really is.

Added to Samsung preferred shares

Yeah, Apple is not cheap but they are one heck of a buisness and i think the chances are good they will do well from current price. Netflix i wonder why it trades at the valuation it trades at...way to expensive agree...

@Gregmal Do you own oil stocks?

Apple gives you a 5% Earnings Yield at 20x and with some growth and buybacks this could still give a decent return, maybe even market beating depending on apples innovative abilities. Buffett still likes it, i would not call Apple dead but not many doubles left for sure. Microsoft at 25x doesnt look very expensive but not cheap and if growth slows i could see them maybe throwing of something like 5,6,7,8% a year with buybacks etc? Certainly not horrible. Amazon on the other hand still has a long runway and i wouldnt call them dead whatsoever, wouldnt be surprised if they beat the S P 500 at current valuation for next decade. Big tech Valuation is not extreme nor is it very cheap, they provide perhaps safer but maybe more mediocre returns with limited upside. My rank for cheapness and runway (longest runway/cheap first): Meta, Amazon, Alphabet, Apple, Microsoft, Netflix. I would never call them dead and they all have a very high specific moat that i dont see gone for a very long time.

looks really good, on my watchlist now!

I am very excited for earnings time, lets see what Mr.Market serves us

Yeah definitely some growth left in the world!

@flesh Perhaps @Parsad should watch martyrs xD

Enjoyed this one very much, thanks!

Fair enough, movie is not for everyone. It does leave an impression and for you it was a horrible one, perhaps thats why martyrs truly deserves the genre ,,horror,,. I watched it first because i heard from some people how horrific it is and my curiosity won, i also watched and was shocked etc but of course also had some distance because in the end its just a movie. But thats art, not all art makes you feel well, horrific cruelsome paintings are also worth looking at but not for some. Zdzisław Beksiński comes to mind as a ,,horror,, painter:

And interesting point that they could be a recipe. I dont think there should be thrillers and murder movies at all if you go along with that argument. Its just a genre and a movie, a shocking one for sure!

Its 100% not for the sensitive hearted and i recommend watching it alone or with a hardcore horror friend

I understand your point of view and its certainly not for everybody. In the end there is this question: Why make a film like this and watch it? It starts at: Why watch a normal scary movie, why do we like to feel scared/excited. I think there is the human nature that likes to explore and have an adventure, for that we have the normal thriller on netflix etc. Then we have movies like martyrs etc which just go beyond all borders and take people on a horrific trip that just leaves you bonkers. I think the following reviews capture the essence of the film very well:

Ill throw in some hardcore horror for fans of the genre: Incredibly sophisticated and shocking down to the bone, brilliant acting, unbelievable story. One of the best horror movies i have seen. https://www.imdb.com/title/tt1029234/reviews?ref_=tt_urv