whatstheofficerproblem

Thanks Xerxes for your kind words. A few musings after I've gone through the five pages: - The reason Israel seems to be called the 'occupier' seems to because the Israelites are white/EU decent. Why wouldn't they be after being exiled and forced to live in EU? - Yes, Israel is no saint & the IDF is not some charitable organization. Have we really forgotten what wars are like? They are dirty and disgusting, it is sad that kids died but that is the true face of war. You kill one of ours, we kill two of yours, you kill four of ours, we kill six of yours and on and on. - Hamas is actually quite genius, Haniyeh is a billionaire and lives in Qatar, like every other terrorist camp, the leader tells his subordinates to indulge in j!had & become mujah!deens to attain jahannum while the leader himself hides out and lives a life of luxury & indulgence. - Their strategy of hiding in tunnels & civilian areas & using children on the frontline is immaculate. With this strategy, you get to attack the other country and also cry victim when there is retaliation. Also helps score sympathy points because now women & children were collateral damage. These guys will have a nice career at McKinsey if they so wish to. - I also noticed that the very people who hate Israel are somehow the same people who support a Pakistan occupied Kashmir? How does that work? The metal gymnastics here are insane, the literal word 'Kashmir' is older than the ideology a lot of them subscribe to. Without making this thread anymore of a political football field, there is a lot of hypocrisy from all sides of the aisle. While wars are nasty, they are extremely profitable, and the powers that be, who puppeteer the war do not care about those on the front lines. We have seen attempts to boycott certain brands by a the pro-Palestine side of the aisle, as a result, Starbucks has laid of tons of employees in the Middle East, can we see what's happening here? A boycott by Arabs led to shutdown of franchises owned by Arabs and evaporated the livelihood of thousands of other Arabs. We have & always will be 'useful idiots' at best, used by one side or the other. At the end of the day gentlemen, I don't have the power to stop the war or the suffering of those effected by it. But I do have the power to increase my position in LMT & RTX, if I cannot stop it, might as well gain from it a little. Afterall, I am only as moral as my government.

Don't hate me but my two cents: - Iran attacked the 'bad guy' in the middle east and now wins the hearts of the 'ummah'. - Israel gets to 'defend' itself again and also play some victim here and there. - Murica will now intervene and kind of cool the waters before the upcoming elections. Iran gets to play the big brother for the ummah considering Saudi doesn't care about it anymore. Israel gets more aid/money & Biden conveniently gets credit for stopping a 'war'. Every party involved wins, except the civilians and collateral damage who are already dead, but life is too short to care about dead folks amirite. For the record, I do not support Iran or Israel (although have vested interests here) or Gaza or US. I purely only support the military industrial complex of the US. Long $LMT & $RTX baby lets go .

I don't know if you're being sarcastic here. Sure, China has its flaws & ofcourse there is propaganda around but this statement seems a little farfetched. I notice that you've had positions in China in the past, you've held PDD since IPO, do you still hold it? Also JD & BABA. What is your view on Chinese equities right now if you don't mind me asking. How do you see the equities market in China going forward, has your perception changed over the years? How much significance do you place on the broader macro here? Since you're from the country originally, your insight would be worth knowing.

I would say so far the one time fee for the CoBF membership is paying me dividends everyday. 1. META - Origination & Thesis is CoBF and work, I think Sanj was extremely passionate about it and put the case up. Simultaneously, I was working at a small value hedge fund where the PM also held the same opinion as Sanj. All of this was a month or two after I joined the forum. - Held it for a year and then sold it, very small position and that was a 200%+ gain. 2. CEIX Calls. - Origination & Thesis is actually VIC, I agreed with the thesis there but did not want to buy the equity, bought some LEAPs a day before earnings. - Very small position again, but earnings were really good and the stock ripped, ~50% gain in two days, ~100% gain in a month and sold it after it doubled.

Gents, AI is one hell of a drug.

RIP. An absolute legend.

The Aussies won the match, but we won the hearts.

It is important because that is how these idiots a.k.a sell-side analysts are going to throw a barrage of ratings around downgrading every stock that they think will be adversely affected and upgrading everything that has even the slightest tailwind. And since their ratings have sway on institutional ownership, a lot of stock will become ridiculously expensive while the others reasonably cheap. Also an indicator of what their 'Macro' outlook is since this is kind of a sea change and GLP-1 will cause the ripple. I still do not understand sell-side analysts, they are the only people who maintain a 'buy' rating while simultaneously decreasing their price target when the stock is going down. They do have impact on pricing and we might as well take advantage of it.

I'm an undergrad student too, while the books do help, this forum itself has had the greatest contribution to my learning curve as an investor. The very first discussion I threw myself was into Brookfield which was quite active back then and growing through all the pages was a fun ride. The recommendations in the books section on here are excellent too, they add insight into sectors like no where else.

I hope that this causes a steep decline in BYD and EVO, would love to pick them up at a nice discount.

They didn't say this will happen in the interim. Those guys made a generalization as to show off the future tailwinds caused by GLP-1 and when this becomes generic, a good portion of the population will be on it.

Anyone think athletic wear brands are worth buying hear? They probably have a huge tailwind from GLP-1. Lululemon, Under Armour etc.

Jeffries analyst says United Airline would save $80M/year due to GLP-1 if the average passenger weight falls by 10 pounds. Less weight and load leading to less fuel consumption.

This is good, we're decreasing carbon footprint, a step in the right direction for humanity. Damn it, now this ruins it. Higher life expectancy will cancel out the loss in carbon footprint and the poles will keep melting and we will all cease because of a flood.

I see, this is what I read before making the initial comment.

I don't ever recall brushing my teeth to keep them healthy, I do so to keep them clean and there is an aftertaste in the mouth after waking up anyways and after a day of eating (irrespective of food quantity) I would want my mouth cleaned from all the residue, so brushing is kind of a refresh button. To me this doesn't seem like a case for less toothpaste sales, but your point is totally valid. I would be worried if I ran a Sweets Business or a Dentist Clinic.

Sell-side 'analysts' are losing it again. Barclays downgraded Colgate on fears of disruption from GLP-1. Didn't know Mounjaro makes you wanna brush less, bath less and clean your house less. Maybe people shit less which should lead to a decrease in toilet paper sales, but us civilized folk use bidets anyways so I can't speak for them.

GLP-1 also has tailwinds from hollywood and bodybuilders. Workout supplement industry is expected to reach $24B by 2027. Bodybuilders, at least the competing and professional ones have used anabolics to rapidly grow muscle but at the end of the day starve themselves before competition to look their leanest. GLP could benefit heavily, in fact there is already active discussion about GLP-1 in the space. My thoughts are instead of anabolics and they can use regular testosterone instead pair it with GLP-1 to reach a single digit bodyfat, not restrict too many calories and have enough protein to replicate the same shredded look. Since muscle size is rarely relevant but what is graded is the overall body aesthetic, I can see the above industries Spek mentioned along with Caffeine industry, energy drinks and the muscle building supplement industry to bask in the glory and ride the tailwinds of this drug.

Speaking of doctors, another use case I see for GLP-1 is Pregnancy! Women in general gain a lot of weight during pregnancy, and I think GLP-1 is a viable post pregnancy option. If some here is an OB-GYN, do you know if this angle is being explored yet?

I don't know if its the wording, but this sounds like music to my ears. I am framing this. That is because doctors know the line between abuse and use, they know how to squeeze this thing effectively, such is their profession. But interesting data point nonetheless, I'm gonna call some doctors I know to see if they have something interesting.

Agree with this. Definitely scope for premiumization. But I also think low end fast foods will benefit if this becomes generic ten years from now. Affordable weight loss = More affordable fast calorie intake (Not holding back on cravings). Is there any research as to after how long the effect of GLP suppressing appetite/cravings wears off?

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/consumer/ozempic-drug-users-are-buying-less-food-walmart-says-rcna119000 I was talking in reference to this data from Walmart. They used an anonymized test from the people buying GLP-1 in their pharmacies and then shopping. And even in their case, there is cause to believe that GLP is expensive as is so they are budgeting the rest of their spend, or that since they have already started GLP this is an effort toward a healthy lifestyle i.e. less junk or calories in general, or just inflation.

Here's what I'm starting to think. The reason why Walmart and all these other firms think that 'Ozempic' is causing its users to spend less is suspect. Literally ~2% or less than that is on these drugs at the moment. They seem to conflating inflation, shrinkflation and 'Ozempic effects ' imo. These things work, there is no doubt about it, but how are they able to identify and provide such 'headlines' when the userbase is so small. People are buying less because costs have gone up, quantity shrunk and they are just being more conscious about how they spend their money?

I think the case is the other way around. I trust the more than 5000 years of culinary evolution and instincts. Humans were put on this planet to eat, now if I as an ozempic user start to feel no urge to consume the fastfood menu, since I have a glp anyways, I would do so. GLPs are basically a shortcut to weight loss, and whenever humanity gets shortcuts, we abuse it. I expect this to be nothing different. For this to truly take effect the drug must become generic and cheap so that it is easily accessible to the common public.