Eng12345

Agreed - the whole offensive is going to continue to be a bloody slog. Ukraine to start talks with US on security guarantees | Reuters <<this is what gives me the inkling the whole thing is going to wind down.

Agreed - the vaunted Ukranian counteroffensive is stalling. It's hard to see the US continuing to provide so much support to a sputtering counteroffensive going into an election year next year. Thats a no-win easy slam dunk for desantis or trump on the domestic front. It's ultimately why I was not so comfortable holding such a large part of my portfolio in oil. Elections are coming up and there is going to be a lot of pressure on the administration to stabilize this/wind it down. Or blow it out of the water and light Eastern Europe up in the flames of war.

The Caterpillar Way by Craig Bouchard and James V Koch @John Hjorth As I mentioned in the CAT thread I just finished this book. It was written around 2013. I originally bought it in hopes of a grand industrial story of greatness. Ultimately what the book really focused on was the turnaround of the late eighties and early nineties in much more textbook fashion. Supposedly in the eighties CAT was losing money year after year and was on the brink of destruction. What stood out to me as fundamental was their ability to break the pattern negotiation strategy of the UAW - which allowed them great flexibility when time to cut costs came. They also empowered alot of their management to be /truly/ responsible for their own budgets - ie if material was cheaper outside of CAT then buy it there. Additionally, something I subconsciously knew but the book called a lot of attention to was the extended dealer network that CAT supports provides a great moat for them and is something they've utilized to great effect to smooth revenues. Overall a pretty good, well researched book that I'm glad I read though it did get somewhat dry at points.

What is everyone's thoughts on the Jetblue buyout of Spirit? It goes to court in October. $31/share buyout and paid $.10/share to wait. I personally hadn't realized that Jetblue ended the northeast alliance earlier this month. That signaled to me that they were serious about completing the merger. Prior to that I had thought of it as just an attempt to spoil the spirit/frontier merger.

I have a pitboss sportsman 820 - I have only had it for a year and most of the time it was garage kept. Having to replace the controller already. I do not recommend. I am considering just selling after fixing and replacing with a nice charcoal grill. I don't often do the long smokes anyways, but it is nice to have. Do not recommend pitboss though whatsoever. The forums are littered with people like me whose controller went out a short time after purchase.

SU - cut my position by ~75% for a small breakeven accounting for dividends. I have lost confidence in the overall thesis from last year into early this year. I can't shake the feeling I'm just trying to catch the top part of a very dangerous geopolitical curve.

Biden’s Billion-Dollar Oil Trade Faces a Big Test - WSJ This is almost becoming comical

Wouldn't a slow bleed to money markets/treasury bonds be a completley different scenario than a panic-induced bank run from a liquidity standpoint? Although I agree this whole thing may not be over it seems worlds away from the collapse of the US dollar predicted by this guy who is spouting off a bunch of gotcha words like insolvency. As long as the banking system overall has enough liquidity it is not like these bonds have taken permanent capital impairments of 20%...IF they can manage to hold long enough. Duration risk is the biggest risk and although we may see a consolidation of banks from those who have not managed that duration well... I'm not exactly convinced we're watching the fall of the us dollar like balaji seems to think.

Buffett is still in C as well. I haven’t seen any attempt by him to reduce exposure? (Not to say you’re safe for that alone)

SU - down ~7% on no news?? Edit - I guess its just tracking WTI to some extent...which leads me to the whole energy commodity spiel and why is oil prices so depressed? It almost seems as if there is some hidden supply

PCYO & CPNG

Thank you. That is what I thought but wasn't sure. My brokerage only offers FFXDF.

what is the difference between fih.u and ffxdf? I've been trying to figure out off and on for a bit but the best I can find is the difference in exchanges...fih.u is the toronto exchange and ffxdf is the OTC... Is there no difference in the underlying other than liquidity, correct?

CPNG & C CPNG is my largest position in my taxable account and keeps growing...opportunities to buy keep presenting. C is now my third largest position. Looking to get more SU but waiting on a bit more dip... I have to start deploying capital...my I'm 20% cash in my taxable account and due to annual bonus and overtime I expect my taxable account to double in value over the next 1-2 months

Business breakdowns had a good episode on this one but I haven’t had a chance to do more homework.

Great read, thank you. At this point I’d like to hear the bear case for energy over the next 3-5 years… Venezuala? Iran? Giant global recession? Electric Cars? Sun and wind can power everything? Perpetual motion machines?

They don’t care if anyone kill’s themselves. They just don’t want them to do it at one of the wonders of the modern world

Biden to Sell More Oil From Strategic Reserve to Keep Gas Prices in Check - WSJ Mr. Biden also plans to call on the Energy Department to be prepared for more sales from what’s left of about 400 million barrels in the reserve if Russia or others disrupt world markets, according to the White House. ... The administration also plans to complete a new plan for buying more crude to refill the reserve, although officials expect they won’t make such purchases for months. The plan would buy crude when prices are at or below about $67-$72 per barrel, an approach that would “will protect taxpayers and help create certainty around future demand for crude oil,” the White House said in a fact sheet. When do they actually expect $67-72 per barrel oil? Seems hopeful to me

I'm in STL as well... between my girlfriend and I last year we probably did 300k with overtime as an engineer/pharmacist. Looking at closer to 250k this year due to less OT in a new job. Still though, we have more than we want to spend. There's only so many vacations etc you want to do... I'm a bit of a homebody so the cheaper lifestyle of the midwest fits me well. Though I do day dream of retiring to the Caribbean

Russia to Halt Nord Stream Gas Flows to Europe, Citing Pipeline Maintenance - WSJ Didn't see this posted...again seems like more posturing on the energy front by Russia.

I agree with your general thesis... ultimately I think we keep oil prices bottomed in this range of $80-90 for longer than is expected - regardless of recession risk or other. The big thing for me seems to be the big russian question. That said if I see my oil stocks starting to make significant capex investments I will be out fast...

Viking - any idea on how many barrel per day delta from current market conditions we would need to be at to reach $150 oil?

Just finished this book up and rather enjoyed it. Found it interesting from a more 'academic' perspective than I usually read. Very interesting to learn how economics has developed over the last ~40 years.