Leaderboard

You aren't going to get a hard landing in the USA with the US government running a multi-trillion dollar deficit and the Fed likely to accommodate any supply-side inflation. Also even if AI is incredibly overhyped the short term impact will be an investment spending boom which will add further support to the economy. And to an extent I agree we have already had a landing. There was a corporate profits recession in 2022 and outside of Mag 7 there wasn't much profit growth and the Russell 2000 is still in a bear market. The real risk I think for markets is that investors might sour again on Mag7 when they realize that interest rates aren't going much lower than they already are and earnings growth will be harder to achieve this year as they've already taken advantage of cost cutting/restructuring opportunities and it will take time for AI to deliver meaningful benefits to the bottom line.

Not that there is much in it but 8001.T also runs a slightly higher thru-cycle ROE. Surprisingly resilient during COVID too. All the Sogo Shosha should still provide high single/low double digits. Not that appealing in absolute terms but becomes mildly appealing if you think Japanese rates are likely to stay lower for longer. The old boy nailed this one

In my opinion, is Itochu. I believe they have more non resource companies, so their cash flows are less cyclical. I am invested since 2020 and quite happy with how management is operating the business. Consistently increasing buybacks and dividends.

Many Fairfax shareholders are now concerned about FFH being overweight in their portfolios. Obviously the reason we are overweight is primarily due to the excellent performance of the share price. Unless one believes Fairfax shares are going to suddenly reverse direction, being overweight is not necessarily a bad thing. I have owned shares in Fairfax for 17 years, not sold a share and added over time. Looking back over the years, yes there have been periods when the market surged and FFH shares did not. But people tend to forget that there were also quite a few periods when the market nosedived while FFH shares surged or maintained their value, and that often helped me sleep at night. I am just a dumb average joe and by no means a sophisticated investor. Had I traded in and out of Fairfax over the years, there is no way I would have been able to predict when to have bought and sold to my advantage. So for me at least, I am not going to sell my shares simply because the company is doing so well. JMHO

Some of his newer stuff is quite good. I like the Laughing Apple. Just discovered it after going through his Albums. He made some so so stuff after taking a long break (decades!) and converting to Islam but this one is just a great folk Album: