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In your case, if you can figure out a way to feed your investment history into AI, and have it generate it for you...

Interesting @Blake Hampton. I’ve often wondered myself how and why relatives and acquaintances, who I’d generally considered previously to be smart, educated folks, ended up developing massive blind spots in one area or another. That is a bit more nuanced than considering that all folks with such blind spots are necessarily stupid. I think it does have to do somewhat with devotion to one dogma or another, or one particular world view. I think it was either Buffett or Munger who used to call that out as dangerous in an individual. My father-in-law, towards the end of his life, fell down the rabbit hole of emails, early Trump birtherism and scare tactics about Obama necessarily being the start of some sort of socialistic order that would also logically begin to come after his own carefully amassed retirement assets. He believed that folks would start taxing wealth as well as income, and that anyone with money in a savings account would see it taxed away. He was not stupid…he was accepted to medical school at age 19 and graduated before the end of WWII serving in the medical corps as a doctor at age 22. His wife also was bright— graduating with a Ph.D from Stanford at the same age. At any rate, how did he react to the screaming emails about how folks were coming after his savings? He regularly withdrew cash from federally insured savings accounts and deposited them in a safe deposit box at a branch office located in his retirement home instead. As executor of his estate, I did find several hundred thousands in cash in the safe deposit box, which, while they had in fact escaped the potential of taxation, also saw their purchasing power decline with inflation over the ten years they lay there. And there was a risk that he hadn’t considered. One year before he passed away, his retirement community almost burned up in a wildfire in California. He and his wife were evacuated in the middle of the night and couldn’t return for another six months. The building had caught on fire, but didn’t completely burn down. Fortunately, the branch office of the bank on the premises wasn’t affected…otherwise, in an attempt to save a bit of tax, he might have seen his cash burn up completely. Cash in savings accounts is generally held in electronic form, so a fire at one branch office wouldn’t affect the balances held in the accounts, but cash in a safe deposit box is not insured, and would have completely disappeared forever had it burned up. I don’t know how best to protect oneself against the dangers of such blind spots. I think it may involve developing and maintaining a high quality bullshit detector in one’s own mind. I hope I have one, and that as I age, I continue to put it to good use. As an armchair historian, I learned long ago the importance of taking into account the motivations behind the writer of any historical source document. When viewpoints of the same historical event diverge, this can help one determine which ones are more trustworthy and believable than others. The same sort of bullshit detector can be used in a variety of other circumstances, not necessarily historical. When someone tries to sell you an investment, for example, particularly via a cold call or personal visit, what could their motivation possibly be? How could they be paying for their time talking to me? It might have to do with a compensation incentive or commission structure that benefits them, at my expense. At any rate, you’ve sparked my interest. Buffett once mentioned a book called “Why smart people do dumb things.” I think I’ll pick it up and give it a read. I saw another small electronic book called “Why smart people believe dumb things.”. Don’t know if either will be worth the read, but for a few bucks I’m willing to take a chance at learning something that can help me make sense of these conundrums… Thanks again.

Including it here since it includes Digit but this would be huge if true. https://www.moneycontrol.com/banking/mc-exclusive-fairfax-could-bid-5-bn-for-idbi-bank-said-to-offer-to-fully-divest-from-csb-bank-article-13958248.html i wonder if they would only include their stakes and keep Digit and IIFL Capital public.

In 2014, I was 12 years old probably playing my Xbox. I also respect your views, and you are one of my favorite posters. But I still think I'm right.

Credit, the means through which money finds its way throughout our financial system. Credit is the blood circulating throughout the body of the real economy, with the banking system acting as the heart. People generally do not understand just how fragile the banking system, and the mechanism of credit facilitation, truly is. These are highly leveraged institutions operating within a deeply interconnected system. Much of what each institution does relies on a chain of many others, through which failure in any single link can quickly cascade. And it does not take much for the equity of these institutions to quickly disappear. So there stands a Federal Reserve: a national bank, the bank of banks, established to provide liquidity in response to a crisis. But this entity is designed simply to be a lender. Bagehot's dictum: "To avert panic, central banks should lend early and freely (i.e. without limit), to solvent firms, against good collateral, and at high rates." A fiscal crisis, however, is ultimately a crisis of solvency. In such an instance, and in many ways, the hands of the Federal Reserve are effectively tied. How can the Fed act in such a scenario? Well it requires fiscal policy. Take a look at your Congress.

Yup...like Costco and Walmart. Will eat up all of the cable companies for the next decade or so. Streamers are just moving into full blown television programs like sports. So far they've been just been eating up movies and unique programming. They've just started bidding on sports programming and eventually will show all sports. The more total programming they provide, the more people will be happy paying higher subscription fees. Cheers!

Unlike myself, I doubt you even considered Trump any sort of threat back in 2014-2015. I'm pretty sure you saw him as a joke at the time. Just like I've met Buffett and spoken to scores of people who REALLY know him or have spent their lives invested with him. Hell, I spoke to Howard Buffett for over an hour, Ajit Jain like 3 or 4 times, Mohnish who had dinner with him, and I know Prem Watsa who created his own Berkshire and at times has been a macro nerd! You act like you just discovered plutonium (Trump and Buffett)! That none can see but you...we are all blind and in the wilderness! Back to your bunker! Cheers!

Poor Blake. I think you're losing it...

Can you imagine falling for the likes of Trump? Hitler would've had a field day with these people. Donald J. Trump, a complete and abject failure, a man disgusting in almost every way possible, has convinced a sizable portion of our populace that he stands for them. If you are someone who is truly an investor, someone who is thinking about a world 10 to 20 years in the future, this should scare you.

Rationality has taken a backseat to tribalism, emotion, and ignorance.

And I do know what Trumpers are thinking. Many of them are surrounding me nearly at all times of the day. They aren't thinking. I have never once met someone who supports Trump who I didn't think was deeply ignorant in some capacity. These are people that don't keep up with news, or worse yet watch some dogshit like Fox, and then think that they understand what is happening in the world and what Trump actually stands for: "Upon closer observation, it becomes apparent that every strong upsurge of power in the public sphere, be it of a political or of a religious nature, infects a large part of humankind with stupidity. It would even seem that this is virtually a sociological-psychological law. The power of the one needs the stupidity of the other. The process at work here is not that particular human capacities, for instance, the intellect, suddenly atrophy or fail. Instead, it seems that under the overwhelming impact of rising power, humans are deprived of their inner independence, and, more or less consciously, give up establishing an autonomous position toward the emerging circumstances. The fact that the stupid person is often stubborn must not blind us to the fact that he is not independent. In conversation with him, one virtually feels that one is dealing not at all with a person, but with slogans, catchwords and the like, that have taken possession of him. He is under a spell, blinded, misused, and abused in his very being. Having thus become a mindless tool, the stupid person will also be capable of any evil and at the same time incapable of seeing that it is evil. This is where the danger of diabolical misuse lurks, for it is this that can once and for all destroy human beings." — Bonhoeffer - Theory of Stupidity

"Well if I were at the Fed, the thing I'd worry about, always, is that you're the reserve currency of the world. You've got very smart people, very sophisticated people, the American dollar looks like nothing could happen to it, and I don't see how anything could happen to it. But if it does happen to it, I wouldn't want the responsibility of running the Fed. The world will be dependent on it doing it. And last time, in 2007 and 2008, you had Congress that essentially felt they knew more about it than secretary of Treasury. They really gummed things up when they turned down TARP the first time. I think now, people better understand, the Fed can print money." — Warren Buffett, Squawk Pod: 03/31/26 "We can't handle runaway inflation except not to be there, in the way of it. If you look at the number of countries that have had runaway inflation since WW2, in my lifetime, it's very large. Once you create that, it becomes a different world. Germany obviously experienced it after WW1. But there are dozens and dozens of countries that have experienced it. And of course, you have countries that have gone bankrupt six or seven times. It's just amazing what people do in financial markets." "It came close before Volcker, I mean it was "cash is trash." People were losing faith in the currency." — Warren Buffett, CNBC Interview: 05/02/26 He's talking about recapitalization of the banking system in the first interview and hyperinflation during the second. I believe absolutism can extend to simply declaring how "macro is irrelevant."

Among other things, the continued deteriorating financial condition of competitors will just force prices higher which I think should lead to substantial improvements in profitability.

I think it’s the wrong take. Next step in the war would have been invsarion of t/r Mainland and the casualties on both side would have been terrible. The battle of Okinawa, which was Japanese homeland showed how bloody this might have been. 240 thousand casualties (1/3 of the population), roughly 70 thousand Japanese edema and 14 thousand allied (mostly US) soldiers. Imagine an invasion of the mainland and you could multiples this by at last 20c and likely higher. Truman was the president after Roosevelt died and the bomb sort of fell in his lap. He was well aware of a monumental consequence but how could he not try to end the war early by using it? Put yourself in his shoes and think about it and tell me how he would not have used this weapon on his arsenal? Everyone of us in his shoes would have made the same decision.

The funny thing is Blake, you are telling people who have been listening to Buffett for far longer than you...who have actually met or known Buffett...that they aren't listening to Buffett or have no idea about the risks in the economy. Do you see how moronic that is? Buffett also said that if he was managing a million dollars or less, he would be fully invested in the markets all of the time and could get 50% annualized returns. But you are playing macro games. Again, the irony is that you really don't know what Buffett is talking about or doing. Very few actually do. I am the furthest thing from MAGA...I've also never been a Nazi...I'm also not a psychopath. But if you were fighting in the Second World War, you would want to know what your enemy was thinking. If you were a detective, you would want to know what the psychopath might be thinking. And if you are a Democrat/Liberal, you would want to know what a MAGA acolyte is thinking and why. In life, you should stand for things...but absolutism is not a rational stance. If the facts change, change your position...don't adhere to something solely because you are adamant you are right and everyone else is wrong. I've found the best investors, and generally the most rational human beings, are the ones that are intellectually honest with what they know and don't know. And most don't waste their time arguing with people who cannot see that! Cheers!

CME, PAX, SPGI, MSFT (adds or starter positions).

+ tip. I bought one for $19 in Atlanta. Those stories are true. To be fair, it was a German Maß.

I'll have some of what he's having

Is it my favorite idea in the world? No, but I think implementation is going to be much harder given Dems don't have a history of steamrolling their politics thru. I think they are more reliant on compromise, in comparison with MAGA. My recollection was even Obama being held a bit in-check by his own party. Not sure I'd call it a mirror image either as Trump kind of co-opted the tea party, unless you think Mamdani is going to similarly co-opt the DSA? I don't think he has nearly the star power as our boy DJ Trump

Realassetsvalue actually found the earnest money amounts which is really low (just ~1% of asset value) I'd regard that as bullish in that the buyer didn't walk away from a HUGE amount of money indicating some gigantic issue...Like let's say there's a $30 million issue. It'd obviously be rational for buyer to try to retrade or walk away from $1.5-$3 million. a $30 million issue would be okay / is quantifiable. next buyer can price it in. now...of course there's no way to actually know. More on the RIverside Apartments sale contract: Riverside is under contract to the Beitel Group, which is the family office of a family that’s made their money in multifamily real estate. The inspection period is through June 4th with target closing date of July 6th with $1.5m earnest money deposit due 2 days after contract was signed (May 8th) and $3.0m due at the end of the inspection period. Given the small earnest money deposit, the fact that we’re still early in the inspection period, and that the buyer is a savvy multifamily operator who will rely on debt financing to close, this isn’t yet a done deal but they will have done their due diligence and hopefully know what they are getting into.

a) the buyer decided to not proceed following inspection. I assume the building has greater than underwritten deferred maintenance, or, at worst, significant structural issues. Whatever the problem is, the buyer forfeited the earnest money in order to avoi buying the building. I didn't find disclosure of the deposit amount. b) I don't know. They've stated they're getting rid of all employees and liquidating. this is the last thing (assuming the otehr 3 close of course). IF those other 3 close, you'd have like $100mm of PF short term debt @ ~7% (matures in november, can be extended to June 2027, but at a price) so that's $7 million of interest. I'd assume $2 - $10 million/ year of grift / m&A to more or less take all your cash flow. I'd assume carry neutral. they'd have to really pillage ya to have negative. I doubt it takes 24 months. The market for multifamily is deep, liquid, and robust. As long as there's something not insanely wrong with the building (there is something wrong), I'd imagine they remarket it for a few months, get some stink bids that reflect whatever is wrong and it gets done in like 6-9 mo's. they marketed it in January, were under contract in May and then it just fell through. c) the remaining asset is 1,222 unit apartment building, Riverside Alexandria, 1971 vintage, bought in 2016 for $244 million, was under contract at $280 million ($230K/unit, low 7's cap). Three buildings on 28 acres. It generates about $20 million of NOI. but that may be a little lower now. Occupancy has been marginally falling. the DMV has one of the highest unemployment rates in the country and is more or less in recession. This is one of the last buildings to sell from a REIT where a PE firm picked the best assets to buy and this is one of the excluded assets. This is not a high quality asset and is in one of the least desireable markets in the country (the DC area) from a near term economic momentum perspective. that's why this had a 7 handle on it and why I'm being greedy and wanting to create it at a 9 handle. Like basically every apartment building i ever look at online, it gets terrible reviews. I almost put no stock in online reviews of apartments for investment purposes because if you beleived them, every single apartment building in the US is about to collapse, is infested with rats and cockroaches, and has numerous theives, drug dealers, etc. then you look at the data and it shows stable occupancy and rents...o @realassetsvalue has a good writeup with background as a well as a subsequent updated from May https://realassetsvalue.substack.com/p/elme-communities-nyseelme https://substack.com/profile/41080885-real-assets-value/note/c-258451179?r=ogi7p&utm_source=notes-share-action&utm_medium=web https://ir.elmecommunities.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/73/washington-reit-completes-the-previously-announced

It’s pretty much the only reason to close out the TRS I can think of. We will know in 6 weeks or so!

a) Why the termination? b) What would be the SG&A burn and how much value would be consumed, assuming it takes 24 months to sell the remaining asset? How much of deferred cap ex if any on the building? Any mortgage penalty? c) What is the remaining asset?

if it is the closing out of the TRS with the new debt proceeds isn’t that equivalent to exhanging callable floating rate debt at a 100% LTV of a floating Value with fixed rate debt for a fixed non callable 30 year term and a fixed proceed level. If so that would make sense to me.

Why? Thank you.