All Activity

I think we’ll get well above 2x BV at some point just less certain it happens over 5 years without a hard market but that’s a long time so definitely possible. Share counts dwindling and smart global investors like yourself owning it helps! I use 5-10x over 10 years which is ~17.5-26% CAGR. The low end may require no multiple expansion but the high end likely requires some.

Whiskybravo shakes fist

Thank you @SafetyinNumbers of course a big part of the knowledge is from the board with posters like yourself and @Viking I know you are more guarded on the exit multiple, but I am quite optimistic at some point in the next five years the market will give Fairfax credit for its 15-20% continued compounding and re-rate the multiple. Regardless high probability of 20% CAGR even if not 30%

I don't know about other names but just looking at da action, Micron seems to be headed straight to $600, no bounce I got no position in MU so whatever man but that's what it feels like for the memory names - straight down, no bounce

When you look at what was driving the rally, who was driving it, and then the why and how, it all kinda lines up with a top. Qualitatively and gut feel wise too, I think Ive got it right. Q2 very much felt like Q1 2021 when the Covid beneficiaries and hyped SPAC stuff just began crumbling after it exhausted the last of time dumb money. And just the same as then, the “you can’t short this market” refrains were consensus whenever any sort of bearish sentiment arose.

there you go https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/empire-world-history/id1639561921

CFTC Takes Big Swing in Pushing Back on Michigan Kalshi Order I got quoted in Bloomberg today, but more importantly they linked back to my personal site which should help a lot with SEO and mentioned me alongside some well know people in the industry which should help with Answer Engine Optimization (ChatGpt, Gemini).

Thanks to you both! ROE is a critical consideration. What I like about Fairfax is that they seem to have plenty of ideas regarding how to continue to achieve their 15% ROE target via smart allocation of the increasing amount of cash they are generating. And right now, share buybacks at current price levels is just one of the many ways they have found to do so. The only thing better than a company that can earn high returns on capital employed is one that can reinvest incremental earnings at a similar high rate of return.

100% You must be able to criticize/ridicule/insult politicians - otherwise you are subject to their ivory tower tyranny. You cannot effect political change if your citizens are lap dogs to the powerful.

Possible. I do think it's more likely that Americans will realize Stalin was dead on. "I consider it completely unimportant who in the Party will vote, or how. But what is extraordinarily important is this - Who will count the votes and how."

By playing footy?

It's true, but Berkshire also had close to 0.5x the market cap back in 2020. So it is a bit less exciting.

Yup I was showing my 9 year old some old Yankees Red Sox rivalry footage and he couldn’t believe how much baseball has fallen off Football guys get paid to play a physical game, yet can’t hit half the time without getting dumb flags with huge penalties. As such, the Dick Butkus, LT, James Harrison, Ray Lewis awesome factor is totally gone.

I enjoy hockey better without the momentum killing one on one fights

I remember when I think of the over 1 billion people who have escaped extreme poverty!

Agree. MLB systematically killed the old school retaliation/revenge/bench clearing brawl culture over the past 10-15 years. This had been part of baseball for 100 years prior. All the while MMA gained tons of share. “Sometimes fans want to see a fight” - Pete Rose

It's all about $$$...avoiding injuries is the #1 goal of every pro athlete today. There's a reason Lebron didn't pursue football. Whenever I get annoyed about a dive or flop, I remember to thank capitalism!

This is a terrific presentation. Thanks for sharing. A great investor, John Fox, shared with a group of us a shorthand for calculating a fair P/B multiple of ROE/7. I think it’s pretty effective and provides for some margin of safety as theoretically the P/B multiple relationship to ROE should be exponential because of the compounding for high ROE companies. Arguably it requires a high incremental returns on capital. We have seen stocks go above it in hard markets and below it in soft markets but perhaps a fair indicator of intrinsic value.

8-9 Billion would be back to Q3 Q4 2020. Around the highest ever. Market seems to have no clue.

The AI Trade got obliterated the last month, with leading names down a ton. I wouldn't really call this a buying opportunity but it seems like the crash of the internet bubble in 2000 in the early stages. A lot of these names still trade at >20 times sales and still has ways to go down. The question is is this just a pullback or is the AI trade effectively "over"?

Those with a subscription to the Daily Telegraph may want to confirm the reporting.... Supposedly; the Houthis are expanding ties with Somalia's al-Shabaab, including the use of Iranian drones, to 'exert influence' on both sides of the Bab-el-Mandeb exit into the Gulf of Aden. The only other way out of the Red Sea is via the Suez Canal; the maximum Suezmax tanker is limited to 160,000 DWT, about 1/2 that of a southbound VLCC loading at Yanbu. A forced temporary diversion of tanker trade north, could well cut off around 1M bbl/d of Saudi egress .... spiking price. https://www.fairwayeta.com/insights/tanker-sizes-explained-aframax-suezmax-vlcc-ulcc https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East–West_Crude_Oil_Pipeline SD

It might be chump change but it’s a big distraction and riskier for JPM or Mitsubishi when they don’t understand the culture. You might be right but that’s what makes a market.

With any luck, the Cyber Ninjas will be on the case to prove that the 2020 election totals in Georgia were wrong, and that Biden won by even more votes.

So why was an external bank like a large North American bank, Japanese bank etc involved or even apparently interested. $5B is Chump change for JPM or Mitsubishi and well worth it to get a strong foothold in an emerging economy like India. I understand the gov't may have different priorities but to say this was a super competitive and efficient bid process would be a stretch.