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Appreciate the compliments. Think of it as 'stress testing'; what is the probable outcome under various (goofy ) scenarios, are we 'agnostic' ?, do there seem to be developing trends, are we positioned to benefit ?. Nice if we can also reasonably quantify the timing, but purely a bonus. Assassination has to be a scenario; low probability, high impact tail risk. Dementia/midterm loss recognition has to a scenario; rising probability?, high impact, fatter tail risk. Trump loses elections, new folks take over, Iran war ends; % probability?, trend ?. Etc, etc .... We treat 'investng' as a business, no matter what, we win; how much .... market determined. Not for everyone, and not everyone's cup of tea. We're agnostic; but it seems increasingly clear that the US is tearing itself apart, and that the world would be a better place without Trump. While we have faith in the ability of the US political system to put up viable alternatives, and implement the will of the people, the pragmatic man hedges his bets. Ideally, we end up hedging for nothing. SD

You are the best energy person on this board, and likely the best energy investor. With goofy political opinions like this one - good luck with your predictions. Trump IS the most important person in the Middle East as of this year - no question. And Trump's success and popularity in the US is sky high currently - certainly NOT due to his personality, but due to his policies. The list of bodies on this board the last 10 years, calling for the "Decline of Trump" - is truly amazing and makes many look very silly indeed. Good luck with your predict on another "Trump disaster" and how his days are "over". With all due respect to your energy expertise.

Canada does things that make sense, which the USA does not. You don't have crazy fraud like we do. You definitely got us beat. Don't change what's not being abused. The USA must change.

Holy cow. If you don’t have the drive to get ID should you really be voting? It’s a very basic and easy thing to do, even if you can’t read there are literally people and organisations that can get it done for you. All you need is the desire to visit them once or twice.

Agreed, as most will just see the dominating MTM loss from the hedges, and not the incremental FCF from the unhedged production. Unlikely that Q2 hedge roll-off receives any credit until Q3 reporting in Nov. A bit different though for an IPO, and to a lesser extent a CJ; company specifics and low share counts adding lifts . SD

It's that plain simple! Build a database maintained to keep track of who has the rights to vote!

Anyone born in the U.S. can easily order a copy of their birth certificate if they don't already have it. That is one way to prove citizenship. Opponents of proper ID are making a mountain out of a mole hill. Otherwise your suggestion makes complete sense other than to those who don't want fair elections.

I think if the U.S. made a joint DL/Citizenship Card it would force a lot of people to find their passports or birth certificates. I'm not against it, I just think it's a way to make it harder for people to vote. Nothing to do with legitimate or not. In Canada, we are required to provide our voter card (just a piece of paper sent to your home address telling you where to vote), be on the voter registry that matches the card, and provide a piece of photo id. No birth certificate, no passport. And there has been zero outcry over unfair elections. We also have mail in ballots that are date-stamped when mailed, and counted after election day, but they have to all be in by election day...that is the cut-off. Cheers!

Nothing against the US, or the incredible achievements of the US people .... just not so much the administration. We just call it as we see it, and invest accordingly. The dysfunctional administration is rapidly getting worse, Trump has now become a material hazard to the world, and there is diminishing confidence in a drama free transition .... should Trump lose the midterms. Wide range of ways it could go. If I have done my job well, we do well no matter what. I just find it very unlikely that pending a state removal, an incapacitated Trump voluntarily gives way to his Vice. Sadly, we think it far more likely that it is accomplished via another game changing Kennedy moment. Sh1te kickers are not a bad thing, but once their day is over ... Same thing with Orange Boy. SD

This depends on how much the companies hedge, correct? Some hedged quite aggressively (hint: OBE) so Q2 may not be that good for them.

FWIW - LC, Spek Your hatred of MAGA is noted. LOL Have a nice weekend boys!

Nice! So PCC's an Easter egg? Probably a few more hidden away somewhere.

Pretty damn cool GFP. Wife's family favorite spot in Epinal is the American Cemetery WWII. Your buddy LeClerc from Epinal was born the year I met Evelyne (French women are the best). I think I met Josey .. Explains a lot about you and your crazy motorcycle trips. Cheers.

Where are you getting your information LC? Florida Birth Certificate costs $9 Here is what is required: signature, birthdate, and photo ID - pick one (Driver's license, Passport, Military ID, State ID). Texas Birth Certificate costs $22 Here is what's required: -State ID or Driver's License (any state) -Date of Birth -Full Name -SS# -Current address All done online. Simple, very simple.

HaHa! , @gfp, It's an awesome post! It also sheds some light on you personally!

LOL, in Florida a legal representative can be anyone (literally). Nice try. You missed the point, as usual.

Usually I would preface this with an apology for posting in this thread about something so off-topic but I don't give a shit about the politics thread so... I still have a bunch of prints and stuff from the Imagerie d'Epinal - maybe she would remember that place https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Imagerie_d'Épinal I remember this badass climbing wall right near the city center called Carrière Collot - totally badass climbing setup for the middle of town https://www.thecrag.com/en/climbing/france/ambrail-epinal I lived in a suburb of Paris the year before called La Varenne in Saint-Maur-de-Fosses and that family was also super rich - they let me try to drive a Ferrari 328 when the only clutch experience I had was on a farm tractor or tiny motorbikes - a gated manual shifter! I didn't do great. Both years in France everyone in my program was paired with working class families - truck drivers, little stone houses, etc. Both years I got paired with the richest family in the community with multiple household staff and Range Rovers and beautiful people. My theory is that because my Father was a chain smoker we were the only family that filled out the form saying "smokers OK" and so I got paired with the rich families that smoked cigarettes. Or maybe it was just luck - but I decided back at 11 and 12 years old that that life suited me just fine! The kid I got paired with in Epinal was supposed to grow up to be a tennis star but that little fucker ended up becoming a race car driver... Unbelievable.. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antoine_Leclerc His sister josephine was my first kiss, so there

You're absolutely right! Except in most states. The amount of misinformation that is confidently spewed by MAGA is mind numbing. No wonder Trump appeals to you guys. Florida: Texas: I'm not going to bother researching the rest for you. Poll taxes are illegal, elections are run by the States...if u don't like it, get over it or continue greasing up the loser in chief to MAGA the law.

As Buffett pointed out back in the day, PCC's purchase accounting adjustments were understating its owner earnings in the GAAP reports by almost $400m annually. He called it "a gift to my successors" because the D&A of acquired intangibles would be mostly gone by the 19 year mark and PCC would magically appear more profitable inside Berkshire after that. On the other side of the coin, he always calls out the annual capex at BNSF costing far more than the depreciation charge in our inflationary world. Replacing tracks from 1980 or even 2010 costs a shit ton more today. So at BNSF there is no "purchase accounting" bonus - if anything you need to add more to the depreciation charge to get owner earnings. He took the cash out anyway, because he was able to increase leverage safely. Pilot looked worse than it was and will work out fine but they sure learned a lesson and that lesson may pay for itself going forward. Lots of stuff made Pilot look like it shit the bed right after they bought it but most of that was inventory being written up at acquisition, shutting down the energy trading division that made it look like revenues crater-ed, the push-down accounting that pissed off the Haslams in the first place, and of course the fact that Berkshire overpaid for the large 2nd tranche because Haslam gamed the 10x EBIT contract by juicing EBIT that year.

Continue to build up my gold position with GLDM and exposure to short-duratoin TIPS via a few ETFs.

Yes, escalation of war is a terrible thing with its loss of life. You certainly are consistent... Continuing to predict the 'Fall of Donald Trump' once again. Good luck with that SD - the US will continue to deliver the gulf oil to the world via the SOH. You can count on the Orange Boy and the USA, but no one else...

This is all nothing new. Same as when one team loses in soccer or basketball and blames the refs. Theres definitely fraud as it’s statistically almost impossible for there to be none; fraud is everywhere, but it is what it is and it’s always the loser complaining about it which is also part of the issue. That said if you can’t present ID or come up with the same documentation you need to collect welfare, buy alcohol, cigarettes, go to nightclubs…notice most of those things are very dominant habits of certain demographics….go fuck yourself you shouldn’t be able to vote.

That's a great high level view of the PCC valuation, much appreciated as I can see the BNSF comparison. I wondered about the impairment damage and some of the other missteps. Thanks for all the detail.

@xboojum, -Please also read here [H/T @scorpioncapital ] and onwards about float financing!

I had no idea you could do that. Almost as easy as an illegal immigrant can vote in a US election.