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Trump worship is empowerment building, you can literally feel the energy it brings those who invest their entire lives within it! The rewards...they are many! The Trump meme coin generated about $616 million for the Trump family, while buyers lost more than $700 million, according to Reuters' estimates. The coin has tumbled 97% from its January 2025 peak.

I was just thinking that sometimes Fairfax gets involved in deals with partners who need capital, and sometimes they provide that to their partners in the form of an equity investment, while other times they do so in the form of debt instruments and sometimes they do both, with an equity investment alongside convertible debt. If the investments were made at the insurance subsidiary levels, then perhaps the debt portion of the financing would be viewed by regulators similarly to (and a replacement for) corporate or government bonds without running the risk of adversely impacting regulatory assessments of the risk levels. And since the bond portfolio is large and of relatively short duration, the insurance subs would appear to have a steady stream of maturing bonds that might be sources of debt financing. I don’t claim to understand the details of the Kennedy Wilson transaction, but the SEC proxy statement regarding the proposal indicates that Fairfax has provided an equity commitment letter promising to purchase “equity or debt securities, or provide debt financing” in an aggregate amount of $1.650 billion to allow the transaction to take place. Presumably, whatever portion of the total $1.650 billion is provided in the form of debt financing could easily be supplied by principal repayments of existing bonds already held at the insurance subsidiary level as they likely mature at the rate of perhaps $2 billion a month. Dozens of pages in the proxy statement list all of the entities at Fairfax involved in the proposal, including management and board members of numerous Fairfax insurance subsidiaries including Odyssey, Allied World, Brit, Northbridge, Crum & Forster along with the Holding Company. So I think @SafetyinNumbers was on the right track in suspecting that much, if not all, of the funds required for financing this transaction will be provided at the insurance subsidiary level.

Love ya cubs, but I agree with change

@Txvestor, you make a good point. There are two (updated) posts coming on that topic… should be out shortly “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." George Santayana

Return to Feb 28th status quo Return to Feb 28th status quo Explain? Cause last I checked their missle projection power was reduced by max 20% according to US intelligence, they’ve proven they can launch missiles at gulf/israeli targets at will and despite all efforts they closed the SoH for two months and despite the US attempts it could never be re-opened by unilateral force. If we want to talk about Iran’s war toolkit here, deterrents. their credible threats, their leverage… moving forward it looks greatly enhanced to me. And if that weren’t enough Trump is going to send them money, plus sanction waivers to get himself out of jail here. Then Gulf neighbors are going to pay tribute to keep the SOH open. Oh yeah - last I checked the MOU has kicked everything nuclear out to Phase II….and anyway the baseline here (for epic fury’s success) is what was available in Geneva Feb 27th at the negotiating table compared to today ….ive not seen much nuclear incrementalism in the deal rumors but let’s see. Israel/Bibi are livid because they should be……they signed up to change the game for the better in the ME…you can tell a story about things being much much worse in ME moving forward for all the reasons we discussed. Anyway my sense is that this deal looks so poor that I think Trump double taps Iran after the midterms. If things were left as they are here it’s frankly embarrassing for his legacy (which he cares about deeply).

Great write up as always Viking. You wrote quite extensively recently about the 2017-2025 period during which their execution has been near perfect and now here about their 2002-2008/9 home run with the CDS. I'm looking forward to the one about the intervening period as well, just so it's fair. I think it partly also explains the ongoing selling overhang in the stock. So it's an unsavory chapter but worth discussing. It may have also partly been why Prem felt the need to consolidate voting control.

Could you please explain the mechanism you have in mind in more detail? I think I forgot or misunderstood that too. How can the turnover of float (so about the 25bn you refer to) be used as a debt like funding? I always thought that the invested float is regulated. So like in fact most of it has to be invested into bonds and only a small fraction in equity. So if you'd invest a bigger portion into equity and change the "risk" (from a regulators perspective) when turning over after two years, you'd loose your rating. As the float returns from my understanding go straight to the holding (and you seem to refer to the float turnover, which from my understanding has nothing to do with returns). Of course the insurance subsidiaries could change the debt level; but again that would change the risk from a regulators perspective I guess. In fact I am missing the link between "turnover of float" and "opportunity to buy equity" without changing what regulators define as risk. Would be great to learn more about that. @SafetyinNumbers

Now you tell us. Thank you for the variant perspective. I sold Intel recently. Maybe I should have looked at the chart first. It's not the fundamentals driving the price up... Any other stock chart you could help us analyze? CSU hit the 200 days moving average last week: I was thinking about selling at that point, but it's a long-term holding so I'm not touching it right now. I think CSU will be trading on sentiment and not fundamentals for a long time as will ADBE.

Good point, @SafetyinNumbers. This has been a blind spot in my thinking about the company’s investment options. I’ve tended to think that they can only really afford to spend/invest what they earn plus what they can raise in the debt markets in any given year…perhaps $5 or $6 billion or so, with investment options spread out between buying out minority partners, paying dividends, buying back stock and making new equity investments. I’ve completely forgotten about the $50 billion or so of fixed income float investments, most of which is held at the insurance subsidiaries, and which is turning over at about $25 billion a year if duration is short and at around 2 years. This can be a source of debt-like funding (other than only equity) which can be used to help finance purchases and deals as you note above. And when that is not enough, it helps to have partners like OMERS who are willing to front money for larger purchases, receive preferred equity, and provide Fairfax with future dated options to buy back their interests. And of course, as @Viking has noted, the operating subsidiaries have the ability to raise debt on their own to help fund bolt-on acquisitions or refinancings that they may be interested in doing.

Here is an AI generated summary of Sleep Country's recent acquisitions (Sleep Number pending). I think the IP angle is key given the size of Sleep Country's Canadian footprint. The UK acquisition last year also enhanced Sleep Country's capabilities. Given how slow the housing market is today in the US and Canada, this is likely the perfect time to be a buyer. This is right out of the Fairfax playbook. At the 2024 Fairfax AGM Alan Kestenbaum told the story of when he called Prem during Covid (when the steel industry was getting killed) wanting to do a big strategic transaction... Prem pushed him hard to do it. And a few years later it turned out to be a brilliant move. That is the value of having a parent who has the right temperament. https://www.mccarthy.ca/en/experience/stelco-signs-long-term-pellet-supply-agreement-and-option-to-acquire-25-interest-in-minntac-with-u-s-steel Common thread... these are all distressed purchases. All give Sleep Country capabilities they didn't have before. Shitstorms are opportunity. Very counterintuitive. It will be interesting to see where the funding for Sleep Numbers comes from. Probably partly from Sleep Country issuing debt. And partly from cash from Fairfax.

Thats what's visible on the spreadsheet. Sleep number also has some valuable technology/patents. Its store footprint nicely fits with Sleep Canada's map, and since this will perhaps triple revenues for Sleep Canada, I'm sure there will be some synergies to be had. Hopefully we are close to the nadir of revenue declines and the company cultures fits well. It has the potential to be a very lucrative acquisition. Considering what Fairfax paid for Sleep country($880M or about 8-9x EBITDA) this would be very cheap if they can integrate it well.

You are kidding right? SOH open, oil back to normal, Iran's ability to wage war finished, nuclear ambitions set back 10+ years. Give me break.

Cubs - what you just described (SOH reopening) is a return to status quo that existed prior to Epic Fury….characterizing a return to the status quo ex ante as a successful output to military campaign is an oxymoron.

So Sleep Country Canada (Fairfax) is likely to end up with this business. I don't fully know how C11 works but I think Sleep Country Canada gets the whole operating business then for $415m in cash. EBITDA for this year is estimated to be 80m, and 105m for '27 putting it at 5x '26 and sub 4x '27. I read they bought over $700m of stock at $100 a share which is crazy. What a waste of money.

Change of tune from chevron CEO, now saying oil markets might now be ok until September.

Yeah, we're going to find out Sunday. I don't think anything gets signed, cause if it does, it's basically a surrender document for the IRGC. The MOU or whatever gets signed, says SOH gets opened "unconditionally" basically. ie - Iran does not collect tolls, can't keep the Jews or Americans out of the SOH, and any ship may pass. I can't see Iran signing that - as it is very close to an unconditional surrender - even if they are being strangled economically. You and your "wins/losses are for 4 year olds". Good for you change. We will see if Iran gives 100% release on the SOH on Sunday. I doubt it. But if they don't - it will be bombs away - and you'll tell me Iran is in complete control... LOL

Damn Spek - you believe anything. LOL UAE Categorically Denies Media Reports Alleging Transfer of Funds to Iran Sat 13/6/2026 The United Arab Emirates has categorically denied reports published by certain international media outlets alleging the transfer of funds from the UAE to the Islamic Republic of Iran, including allegations concerning USD 3 billion. https://www.mofa.gov.ae/en/MediaHub/News/2026/6/13/UAE-IRAN

Wins/losses are for four year olds as i said. The question is moving forward here who's relative regional power has been enhanced and who's has been diminished - Iran or the US's? I think the answer is obvious here - Iran was able to shut down commerce in the region for two months via the SOH and the US had no answer to re-open it by force. Iran retained the ability right up to the MOU signing to down American Apache helicopters and hit Israel & other GCC targets showing the ability to take a beating for a month and still retain deterrents. Strategic objectives met or unmet, relative power changes & latent leverage post-conflict is how strategists measure a conflicts outcome......children count how many ships got sunk, how many things got blown up......the relentless focus on messaging on the tactical wins of Epic Fury are in and of themselves an acknowledgment that strategically its been a disaster. The MOU is a throwing in of the towel here - who in their right mind if they hold all the cards, takes the pressure off the opponent and kicks everything off substance down the road to be figured out later. The answer is obvious - the person who was pretending to have the leverage and the options.

Intel is a perfect example of why I'm still a (bag)hodler with my 52 week lows. Left for dead...

Big-time win for Iran. Leaders dead. Military destroyed. Oil price @ $78, not $200. Economy destroyed. Overseas assets Frozen. Currency worthless. Yeah, change, huge victory ROFL

It's definitely true in the case of Obama/Biden. Their Ivy League cohorts led them to disastrous decisions. Can you imagine the stupidity of funding the nuclear ambitions of the greatest terrorist nation in the world? Talk about being played as suckers. Then you leave the Taliban with $50B worth of state of the art military supplies in Kabul. Then you give the IRGC billions for their terror proxies. Those two complete morons did much more than "nothing". At least we have Trump to clean up after this disaster.

Sometimes and in politics quite often doing nothing is the best course of action. Especially true if you don’t know what you are doing.

I heard no underlying repudiation of the underlying proposition in my post....just a usual whataboutism about Biden / Obama did a decade....broadly when you see that its an implicit acknowledgment that the proposition put forward is best not tackled on its merits but rather pivoted away from. But as always interested in perspectives from Fox land if you can provide them. How has Iran's regional power been diminished post-Epic Fury after they've successfully held the region/globe hostage here for two months DESPITE the US trying to stop it AND how has the US's been enhanced seen as it failed to stop Iran doing that. I mean you do realize what's happening here with this MOU where all the hard stuff is kicked out to Round 2? In a phased agreement where the core, existential issue, nuclear development, is kicked to round two. Iran knows that once the U.S. administration claims a diplomatic victory in Phase 1, the political appetite in Washington to walk away and return to the brink of conflict over round two demands/belligerence will be severely diminished. It is not the art of the deal, its the art of the off ramp.

Trump has mellowed a lot. He usually declares war on Friday after the close and then cancels it before market open on Monday. Here is a little cash advance for the Iranians in the meantime, maybe to grease the wheels: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/uae-unlock-billions-dollars-iran-sources-say-2026-06-12/

Yeah right. Let's return the ropes to Biden and Obama for lessons on how to react in the Middle East. Cut and run - leave billions in armaments to your worst enemies. And if that is not enough - let's fund their nuclear threat with billions - at the same time as funding their terrorist proxies for years. That shows real "American Strength".