All Activity

When I look at the raw USD figures for IDBI Bank on TIKR, I find it a bit hard to understand the enthusiasm surrounding a potential takeover. Even if one generously overlooks the fact that the bank had some serious issues a few years ago due to non performing loans (after having the same problems in 2001-2003, so it seems recurring), its book value per share has shrunk to a third of what it was twenty years ago. Earnings per share are currently around half of what they were two decades ago. There is not even growth to speak of, adjusted for inflation the volume of loans currently being issued is barely higher than it was twenty years ago. If we assume for a moment that the Indian stock market were open to foreign investors, IDBI would not be an obvious buy for me personally, neither in terms of operational performance nor current valuation levels. What am I missing here?

I don’t think cubs is saying illegal immigration is driving up housing prices, but legal isn’t. He’s saying the number renting drives demand and illegals are a large part of the surge. In the U.K. we had 10 million immigrants (legal / illegal / asylum) in the last 10 or so years, bumping our population from 60 million to 70 million, and our moron politicians can’t figure out why house prices and rent are going up, or are pretending not to know.

Nice! Now we await the details! Huge!

Funny that one kid takes $0 in comp, the other $1, and one $585K.

That doesn't indicate that illegal immigrants were driving prices up. It was just as likely legal immigrants were driving them higher. if you have a net shortage of housing built each year, eventually the populace (domestic, international, legal, illegal) will drive rents and prices up of the existing housing stock. It's happened nearly all over the world. Now the opposite is happening. Reduced immigration (legal and illegal) is driving prices down, along with foreign buyers pulling back from North America due to the discomforting political stance here. Condo prices in Vancouver and Toronto are down 20% and 30% respectively in the last two years...supply is at a 20-year high...rents for the first time in 20 years are dropping...you may get what you wished for, and that comes with a partial collapse in housing prices in NA. Cheers!

Thanks for this! It was super easy for me to understand the virtuous effect of share buybacks below book value of a few years ago. I was struggling to model out in my mind the impacts of buybacks above book value, but below intrinsic value. As a shorthand way of valuing shares, I also consider a multiple to normalized earnings per share. This would also capture the impact of buybacks below intrinsic value but above book value, if the buybacks result in a higher EPS wouldn’t it? Similar to seeing a higher ROE. I’m probably going to have to be a bit more cautious about using book value per share of Fairfax as the basis for my personal estimate of intrinsic value unless, as you note, I also remember to consider the projected ROE.

Even the pictures weren't the problem. A fudge bar mimicking Obama's dong in Trump's mouth is low-brow humor...we're better than that and certainly more creative and funnier! You could have just put up a picture of Trump and his administration with the caption: A turd is still a turd, even in a box of raisins! Cheers!

I don’t think book value is irrelevant it’s just not the same as intrinsic value. P/B can be a measure of intrinsic value but it has to be paired with a view on ROE. If assets are marked under fair value but they earn an acceptable return it should show up in the ROE. The relationship between P/B to ROE should be parabolic especially for companies with high returns on incremental capital and low dividends like Fairfax.

You’re exactly right. Land costs where I live are enough that when an existing small home from the 1940’s came on the market down the street it sold for $740,000. I would never want to live in a 1300 sq ft 80 year old home for that price. Zoning where I live would allow six units to be built on the same 5500 sq ft lot. The developer that bought it will build 4 three story homes with enough space left on the lot so each unit will get a one car garage. A six unit build wouldn’t have left enough space for each unit to have a garage. I don’t think a million dollar buyer would appreciate not having a garage. In any event, each of the four small skinny homes will list for over $1 million with over 2000 sq ft of living space, multiple bathrooms and a garage for each compared to the $740,000 run down home of 1300 sq ft with a carport that existed before. Housing supply will increase, but each new dwelling will be newer, nicer, larger and more expensive than the single home that existed before. I can’t think of any economics that would motivate a developer to build less expensive units in such a situation. Absent some sort of costly governmental subsidization of low cost housing, the affordability issue is a tough nut to crack.

The new Airport Metro station is expected to be completed in the next 12 months. https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/karnataka/bangalore-international-airport-limited-confidentthat-bengaluru-airport-will-be-secondlargest-in-india/article71222027.ece/amp/

I was kidding because it's ridiculous.

Geez Doo - just tell the truth - you can't even read. Just like you to shit all over a Federal Reserve Study on home buying.... What a loser. I mean, really , how hard is this to understand. Rent prices and housing prices have always been closely correlated. You have a demand shock on rents (millions of immigrants) and you put upward pressure on housing. Econ 101

alt righties tend to lie.

How do you know who you bid against? Also, how do illegal immigrants buy houses when they can’t get a mortgage? I had to show my green card to get a mortgage years ago. Illegal immigrants tend to rent.

It looks like Fairfax has upped their offer again. We may be getting close to an official announcement. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/banking/finance/banking/fairfax-to-acquire-idbi-bank-stake-in-5-5-billion-deal-biggest-foreign-investment-in-indian-bank/articleshow/132400419.cms?from=mdr The government has finalised Fairfax Holdings for the sale of its stake in IDBI Bank after the Canadian firm sweetened its offer, people aware of the development said. The decision was made Tuesday after meetings at the finance ministry. “Fairfax is now offering ₹81 per share, which is higher than their offer of ₹75 given last year,” one of the people said. “After much discussion, the government and Fairfax have agreed to shake hands and the official announcement could be made anytime now,” the person said. An empowered group of ministers that includes finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman has been apprised of the revised bids and subsequent developments, another person aware of the matter said. “A formal notification will come soon and post that a letter of intent will be issued, followed by signing of the share-purchase agreement.”

Every home I've purchased i found myself in a bidding war with illegal immigrants.

These are great points, but on the flip side and maybe this partially explains the push to build bigger homes, it costs a lot more per square foot to build a smaller square footage home, which is one reason I don't think we are cranking out 1,200 square foot homes. I've run the numbers a few times on building ADUs in the 800-1200 square foot range to rent out, and it doesn't make a lot of sense when you can buy an existing house on a separate APN# for a similar cost. Some of this could be California specific, but no matter where you build, you're going to be sinking the most money on kitchens/bathrooms/adhering to modern building codes/utility hookups/permits, so building a home 25-50% larger doesn't increase the price by nearly 25-50%. Really interesting point about open floorplans, I hadn't considered that before.

More on the demand shock caused by Illegal immigration - direct from the Federal Reserve: https://thefederalist.com/2026/06/30/fed-study-illegal-immigration-caused-30-of-home-price-spikes-while-deflating-american-wages/ The authors discovered that for every 1 percent increase in illegal immigration “equal to 1% of a local area’s initial employment,” home prices increased by 2.2 percent, rent grew by 1.4 percent, and wages decreased by 0.87 percent, and 0.7 for the average American. This means illegal immigration is responsible for “about 30% of the total growth in house prices and 20% of total growth in rents over the boom period for the average local market.” In sum native working-class renters faced decreasing wages as illegal aliens flooded into the job market, and they also took the brunt of the housing cost increase as demand for apartments and multi-family housing grew.

Netanyahu may be gone soon: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jul/13/israel-sets-october-date-first-elections-since-hamas-attacks-2023

Trump is the looter without equal here. Everyone else is just child’s play.

that seems like a good price for Altius. I agree that Fairfax is likely not involved.

No prob. It was just easier than typing 1000 words.

Hi @Viking, enjoyed meeting you in April. On the topic of BVPS at Fairfax: An asset is a controlled resource that is expected to provide future cash flows. If one assumes that in the long run: 1. Fairfax's float is likely to be greater than or equal to current 2. The insurance businesses are likely to approximately break even Then Fairfax's float of $41B can be considered an asset that is at least as valuable as cash. As @Packer16 has pointed out, the current combined cost of debt + float is less than zero. If this can possibly persist, Fairfax in 2026 might be simplified as being seen as a pile of ~$78B in T-Bills, yielding ~$3B per year after tax, buying itself for at a pace of 5+% per year at a valuation of $35B. Viewed from this lens, intrinsic value per share is >$3,500/share and buybacks are occurring in the $1,600s. This valuation seems to be in line with others' conclusions. I believe this is more or less the current situation, and approximately in line with how Prem views it. What do you think? See below for excerpts from the 2025 annual report. In short, Book Value per Share has become irrelevant as it largely excludes important economics at Fairfax including: 1. Float 2. Excess economic goodwill vs reported goodwill of insurance subsidiaries 3. Excess fair value vs carrying value of non-insurance businesses, and 4. The growing pace of buybacks, and the incorrect effect effect they have on intrinsic value per share growth if success is measured in BVPS From the 2025 annual report: Page 27, float as "perhaps" an asset: Page 22, goodwill accounting rules obscuring insurance subsidiary value: Page 23, multiple-to-BVPS' irrelevance when approximating intrinsic value: Page 7, likely after-tax income of ~$3B for the next 4 years:

Announcement of most recent donation of BRK shares by Buffett https://berkshirehathaway.com/news/jul1426.pdf BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC. NEWS RELEASE FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE July 14, 2026 Omaha, NE (BRK.A; BRK.B) – Today, Warren E. Buffett will convert 8,000 Berkshire Hathaway Class A shares into 12,000,000 Berkshire Hathaway Class B shares in order to donate the 12,000,000 Class “B” shares to four foundations: 9,000,000 shares to the Susan Thompson Buffett Foundation and 1,000,000 shares to each of the Sherwood Foundation, Howard G. Buffett Foundation and Novo Foundation. Mr. Buffett’s ownership of Berkshire now consists of 188,290 Class A shares and 1,162 Class B shares. * * * * * * * * * * * * Mr. Buffett’s comments follow: “My goal is to dispose of all of my Berkshire shares within about eight years. As I explained last year, my children are unfortunately growing older. I have every hope that the three of them are able to carry out the disposal of my shares by December 31, 2034. Of course, mortality is unpredictable, but my remaining shares will be donated to the four foundations one way or the other by December 31, 2034. The goal is to have the grants grow annually to each of the three foundations managed by each of my children and the annual grant to the Susan Thompson Buffett Foundation grow at a somewhat greater rate.

Doo, cut back on the pictures please! Cheers!