Retail Anecdote

[Kraven]

We sometimes use a neighborhood girl to babysit the kids.  She is 13 and in middle school.  The other day my wife and I were talking to her and somehow clothes came up.  I took the opportunity to do a little market research.  I asked her what stores her and her friends like the most.  She quickly said Abercrombie and H&M are the favorites. 

 

I asked what she thinks of Aeropostal and she said "well, it used to be popular, but not so much anymore.  Once in a while there's something there."  What amused me is she said that her cousin in the Midwest still likes it and she thinks it's still popular there, although not around here (Northern Virginia) any more.  I asked when it stopped being popular and she said maybe last year, which coincides very well with their performance.

 

Finally, I asked her whether she would ever shop at Sears and JC Penney fully expecting her to either laugh or look puzzled.  Surprisingly she said they shop at Sears a lot, although mostly for Lands End.  I asked if Lands End is popular with her and her friends and she said, "yes, it's classic stuff".  In terms of JC Penney she said not as much as Sears, but they do shop there.  I asked what she thought of the updated stores and she said she hasn't been there in a while, it's all online.  I asked if she has been to a Sears lately and she said yes, but it's mostly online for them too, both through Lands End and the Sears website itself.  I asked if there is any stigma or anything about Sears and JCP and she looked confused.  Said "no, they're fine.  Not hip or anything, but good stuff."

 

So there you have a sophisticated market research report.  I found it interesting anyway.

[ItsAValueTrap]

The problem is... every company tends to have its haters and its fans.

 

You can look at:

- Facebook pages

- Glassdoor for employee reviews

- Online blogs, etc.

 

Usually there will be haters and fans.  There are some companies which tend to attract a lot of hate because of the way the business works.  e.g. Debt collection agencies rarely receive praise.

 

2- Just because customers like a product doesn't mean that the company will be profitable.  e.g. the Delorean

 

Sometimes delivering less value to your customers is necessary to have the highest profits.  The most profitable companies may be the ones which are the most reviled and hated (maybe companies like Gamestop and people like Robert Kotick of Activision).

 

*Short GME, no position in ATVI.

[Green King]

We sometimes use a neighborhood girl to babysit the kids.  She is 13 and in middle school.  The other day my wife and I were talking to her and somehow clothes came up.  I took the opportunity to do a little market research.  I asked her what stores her and her friends like the most.  She quickly said Abercrombie and H&M are the favorites. 

 

I asked what she thinks of Aeropostal and she said "well, it used to be popular, but not so much anymore.  Once in a while there's something there."  What amused me is she said that her cousin in the Midwest still likes it and she thinks it's still popular there, although not around here (Northern Virginia) any more.  I asked when it stopped being popular and she said maybe last year, which coincides very well with their performance.

 

Finally, I asked her whether she would ever shop at Sears and JC Penney fully expecting her to either laugh or look puzzled.  Surprisingly she said they shop at Sears a lot, although mostly for Lands End.  I asked if Lands End is popular with her and her friends and she said, "yes, it's classic stuff".  In terms of JC Penney she said not as much as Sears, but they do shop there.  I asked what she thought of the updated stores and she said she hasn't been there in a while, it's all online.  I asked if she has been to a Sears lately and she said yes, but it's mostly online for them too, both through Lands End and the Sears website itself.  I asked if there is any stigma or anything about Sears and JCP and she looked confused.  Said "no, they're fine.  Not hip or anything, but good stuff."

 

So there you have a sophisticated market research report.  I found it interesting anyway.

 

Thanks for the insights. Did you ask what it means to be popular?

[ItsAValueTrap]

Here's other examples where scuttlebutt could lead you in the wrong direction:

 

Dollar stores like Dollarama

MTY Food Group

 

Dollarama is kinda ghetto.  Many of the restaurants owned by MTY are kinda tacky.  Taco Time is a bad knockoff of Taco Bell.  These are some of the best performing stocks on the TSX.

 

http://www.wem.ca/media/tenants/taco-time/taco-time-tenant-image.jpg

 

*No position in either.

[Kraven]

We sometimes use a neighborhood girl to babysit the kids.  She is 13 and in middle school.  The other day my wife and I were talking to her and somehow clothes came up.  I took the opportunity to do a little market research.  I asked her what stores her and her friends like the most.  She quickly said Abercrombie and H&M are the favorites. 

 

I asked what she thinks of Aeropostal and she said "well, it used to be popular, but not so much anymore.  Once in a while there's something there."  What amused me is she said that her cousin in the Midwest still likes it and she thinks it's still popular there, although not around here (Northern Virginia) any more.  I asked when it stopped being popular and she said maybe last year, which coincides very well with their performance.

 

Finally, I asked her whether she would ever shop at Sears and JC Penney fully expecting her to either laugh or look puzzled.  Surprisingly she said they shop at Sears a lot, although mostly for Lands End.  I asked if Lands End is popular with her and her friends and she said, "yes, it's classic stuff".  In terms of JC Penney she said not as much as Sears, but they do shop there.  I asked what she thought of the updated stores and she said she hasn't been there in a while, it's all online.  I asked if she has been to a Sears lately and she said yes, but it's mostly online for them too, both through Lands End and the Sears website itself.  I asked if there is any stigma or anything about Sears and JCP and she looked confused.  Said "no, they're fine.  Not hip or anything, but good stuff."

 

So there you have a sophisticated market research report.  I found it interesting anyway.

 

Thanks for the insights. Did you ask what it means to be popular?

 

No, sorry I didn't.

[tooskinneejs]

I get the retail report from my nieces every few months.  Kraven, same general area as you.  My youngest niece is a few years older than your babysitter.  She's 16.  Her latest 'report' was that Urban Outfitters was her favorite, that American Eagle is pretty good, that Abercrombie and Fitch is just ok (as well as Hollister), and that Aeropostale was the place that kids tease other kids about.

 

I did also recently ask her about Vera Bradley as I've been watching it (but standing on the sidelines because of the bulge in inventory that management expects over the next few months).  She said Vera was more popular with a slightly younger age group (probably middle schoolers).

[Kraven]

I get the retail report from my nieces every few months.  Kraven, same general area as you.  My youngest niece is a few years older than your babysitter.  She's 16.  Her latest 'report' was that Urban Outfitters was her favorite, that American Eagle is pretty good, that Abercrombie and Fitch is just ok (as well as Hollister), and that Aeropostale was the place that kids tease other kids about.

 

I did also recently ask her about Vera Bradley as I've been watching it (but standing on the sidelines because of the bulge in inventory that management expects over the next few months).  She said Vera was more popular with a slightly younger age group (probably middle schoolers).

 

That's interesting. Obviously it doesn't mean all that much, but provides some info.

[CorpRaider]

If abercrombie maintains its allure (which I kind of expected, probably largely due to price signaling) it might be time to really kick the tires and think about opening up a position.  I have an affinity for it because I caught almost a triple in it back when it blew up last time (when hollister was still in its infancy).  Now they're rolling out that gilly hicks brand apparently going after VS' pink and the juicy lines. 

[rkbabang]

I have a 12 year old daughter and a 13 year old son. They both want clothes from A&F almost exclusively.  My daughter actually refers to ARO as "the Wal Mart of clothes stores".  She'll wear clothes from ARO as long as it doesn't say "Aeropostal" or "Aero" anywhere on it (i.e. pants/jeans, dresses, or skirts).

[meiroy]

 

I think Kraven just killed JCP with his post.

 

Seriously, though, I'm shocked that 12 year old have so much knowledge about shopping and that they shop at brand names.. when my daughter will reach 12 I'll make her knit her own clothes from used fiber.

 

[constructive]

I think the problem with Aeropostale is that its attempts to knock off American Eagle and Abercrombie are too obvious.

 

Consumers are OK with companies like H&M and Old Navy selling cheap clothes because they have a point of view and aren't pretending to be something they're not.

[rkbabang]

 

I think Kraven just killed JCP with his post.

 

Seriously, though, I'm shocked that 12 year old have so much knowledge about shopping and that they shop at brand names.. when my daughter will reach 12 I'll make her knit her own clothes from used fiber.

 

Oh boy, you'll find out.

 

For my daughter's 12th birthday all she wanted (from us as well as relatives) was money to shop for clothes.

When your daughter is 12 be sure to let us know how your knitting idea works out. :)

 

 

 

[Kraven]

 

I think Kraven just killed JCP with his post.

 

Seriously, though, I'm shocked that 12 year old have so much knowledge about shopping and that they shop at brand names.. when my daughter will reach 12 I'll make her knit her own clothes from used fiber.

 

Who, me? Ha.

 

Sure, they do and I think have for a long time.  I don't know why, but it reminded me of something from when I was a kid in California.  I don't know if people remember the "OP" brand (Ocean Pacific).  It was huge back in the day (probably late 70s).  That and Lightning Bolt.  I can still remember their terrycloth shirts that I loved. 

 

But I digress.  The big thing was having OP shorts.  There was this one kid who in retrospect probably came from a family that wasn't well off.  He used to get a very hard time because he didn't have OP stuff.  I remember once he came into school very proud and showing everyone his OP shorts.  Only, it was clear that his mother had taken a regular pair of shorts and sewed in the OP stitching (trademark infringement, I know).  It was misshapen and didn't look anything like the regular one.  Kids gave him a very hard time over that and I think he really suffered.  So yes, I do believe 12 year olds have brand knowledge.

[rkbabang]

 

I think Kraven just killed JCP with his post.

 

Seriously, though, I'm shocked that 12 year old have so much knowledge about shopping and that they shop at brand names.. when my daughter will reach 12 I'll make her knit her own clothes from used fiber.

 

Who, me? Ha.

 

Sure, they do and I think have for a long time.  I don't know why, but it reminded me of something from when I was a kid in California.  I don't know if people remember the "OP" brand (Ocean Pacific).  It was huge back in the day (probably late 70s).  That and Lightning Bolt.  I can still remember their terrycloth shirts that I loved. 

 

But I digress.  The big thing was having OP shorts.  There was this one kid who in retrospect probably came from a family that wasn't well off.  He used to get a very hard time because he didn't have OP stuff.  I remember once he came into school very proud and showing everyone his OP shorts.  Only, it was clear that his mother had taken a regular pair of shorts and sewed in the OP stitching (trademark infringement, I know).  It was misshapen and didn't look anything like the regular one.  Kids gave him a very hard time over that and I think he really suffered.  So yes, I do believe 12 year olds have brand knowledge.

 

That story actually surprises me a little.  I wore OP in the early 80's, but I also had cheap shorts and no one made fun of me for them.  Even today my son has no problem wearing anything, he's perfectly okay with wearing an Aero t-shirt or sweatshirt even if he likes A&F better.  Him and his friends seem much more concerned with electronics than clothes.  Girls however are brutal with each other about this kind of stuff, absolutely brutal to a shocking extent. You wouldn't be able to get my daughter out of the house wearing something that said Aero, if I said "wear that or your punished for a year" that wouldn't do it.  There is nothing I could do that would be worse than the wrath of the other girls in school.

[Kraven]

 

I think Kraven just killed JCP with his post.

 

Seriously, though, I'm shocked that 12 year old have so much knowledge about shopping and that they shop at brand names.. when my daughter will reach 12 I'll make her knit her own clothes from used fiber.

 

Who, me? Ha.

 

Sure, they do and I think have for a long time.  I don't know why, but it reminded me of something from when I was a kid in California.  I don't know if people remember the "OP" brand (Ocean Pacific).  It was huge back in the day (probably late 70s).  That and Lightning Bolt.  I can still remember their terrycloth shirts that I loved. 

 

But I digress.  The big thing was having OP shorts.  There was this one kid who in retrospect probably came from a family that wasn't well off.  He used to get a very hard time because he didn't have OP stuff.  I remember once he came into school very proud and showing everyone his OP shorts.  Only, it was clear that his mother had taken a regular pair of shorts and sewed in the OP stitching (trademark infringement, I know).  It was misshapen and didn't look anything like the regular one.  Kids gave him a very hard time over that and I think he really suffered.  So yes, I do believe 12 year olds have brand knowledge.

 

That story actually surprises me a little.  I wore OP in the early 80's, but I also had cheap shorts and no one made fun of me for them.  Even today my son has no problem wearing anything, he's perfectly okay with wearing an Aero t-shirt or sweatshirt even if he likes A&F better.  Him and his friends seem much more concerned with electronics than clothes.  Girls however are brutal with each other about this kind of stuff, absolutely brutal to a shocking extent. You wouldn't be able to get my daughter out of the house wearing something that said Aero, if I said "wear that or your punished for a year" that wouldn't do it.  There is nothing I could do that would be worse than the wrath of the other girls in school.

 

I get the sense that like you said things like electronics are more important now than clothes with the boys.  I think too that ever since the grunge days that being disheveled is ok.  I remember a friend of mine with older kids telling me a year or 2 back that most boys had adopted the Vince from Entourage look, which made me laugh.

 

In terms of my story, it wasn't like everyone was a bunch of fashionistas, but there were certain brands that were important.  I grew up in So Cal so maybe it was different, I don't know.  I do recall that OP and Lightning Bolt were good, Hang Ten was not.  My parents put me in Stride Rite shoes and that was a no no.  Nike was just getting big and that was good, along with Adidas (remember the Stan Smith ones) and Thom McAn. 

 

In terms of the Mean Girls thing, my wife told me that she heard there was a mean girl in training in one of the kindergarten classes who was telling certain girls to wear something specific (like red shoes) so they could have the same thing on.  It starts early.

 

Not easy being young sometimes.

[rkbabang]

 

I get the sense that like you said things like electronics are more important now than clothes with the boys.  I think too that ever since the grunge days that being disheveled is ok.  I remember a friend of mine with older kids telling me a year or 2 back that most boys had adopted the Vince from Entourage look, which made me laugh.

 

In terms of my story, it wasn't like everyone was a bunch of fashionistas, but there were certain brands that were important.  I grew up in So Cal so maybe it was different, I don't know.  I do recall that OP and Lightning Bolt were good, Hang Ten was not.  My parents put me in Stride Rite shoes and that was a no no.  Nike was just getting big and that was good, along with Adidas (remember the Stan Smith ones) and Thom McAn. 

 

In terms of the Mean Girls thing, my wife told me that she heard there was a mean girl in training in one of the kindergarten classes who was telling certain girls to wear something specific (like red shoes) so they could have the same thing on.  It starts early.

 

Not easy being young sometimes.

 

The location probably makes a difference, I grew up on the east coast in a lower-middle class (at best) area, so we kind of knew that wearing OP meant that we were just following what was going on out west.  That, and there were many kids who couldn't afford it, not just one or two.  Same thing with Nike, it was cool to have it if you did, but most kids didn't because it was expensive, so no one got made fun of.

 

Yes they do start young and it isn't always with clothes.  In my daughters elementary school, this had to be 3rd grade, they had a big problem with a group of girls calling themselves the "3CG Club" harassing girls at recess to tears over the fact that they lived in a house with a 2 (or fewer) car garage.  My daughter didn't get harassed because we have 3, but some of her friends did.  This certainly would never have happened in the town I grew up in.

[rmitz]

 

I get the sense that like you said things like electronics are more important now than clothes with the boys.  I think too that ever since the grunge days that being disheveled is ok.  I remember a friend of mine with older kids telling me a year or 2 back that most boys had adopted the Vince from Entourage look, which made me laugh.

 

In terms of my story, it wasn't like everyone was a bunch of fashionistas, but there were certain brands that were important.  I grew up in So Cal so maybe it was different, I don't know.  I do recall that OP and Lightning Bolt were good, Hang Ten was not.  My parents put me in Stride Rite shoes and that was a no no.  Nike was just getting big and that was good, along with Adidas (remember the Stan Smith ones) and Thom McAn. 

 

In terms of the Mean Girls thing, my wife told me that she heard there was a mean girl in training in one of the kindergarten classes who was telling certain girls to wear something specific (like red shoes) so they could have the same thing on.  It starts early.

 

Not easy being young sometimes.

 

The location probably makes a difference, I grew up on the east coast in a lower-middle class (at best) area, so we kind of knew that wearing OP meant that we were just following what was going on out west.  That, and there were many kids who couldn't afford it, not just one or two.  Same thing with Nike, it was cool to have it if you did, but most kids didn't because it was expensive, so no one got made fun of.

 

Yes they do start young and it isn't always with clothes.  In my daughters elementary school, this had to be 3rd grade, they had a big problem with a group of girls calling themselves the "3CG Club" harassing girls at recess to tears over the fact that they lived in a house with a 2 (or fewer) car garage.  My daughter didn't get harassed because we have 3, but some of her friends did.  This certainly would never have happened in the town I grew up in.

 

Ridiculous.  But kids will look for any differentiator they can find to construct "in" groups and "out" groups--it's natural and unless the parents talk to their kids about this sort of thing it's going to happen.

[Kraven]

 

I get the sense that like you said things like electronics are more important now than clothes with the boys.  I think too that ever since the grunge days that being disheveled is ok.  I remember a friend of mine with older kids telling me a year or 2 back that most boys had adopted the Vince from Entourage look, which made me laugh.

 

In terms of my story, it wasn't like everyone was a bunch of fashionistas, but there were certain brands that were important.  I grew up in So Cal so maybe it was different, I don't know.  I do recall that OP and Lightning Bolt were good, Hang Ten was not.  My parents put me in Stride Rite shoes and that was a no no.  Nike was just getting big and that was good, along with Adidas (remember the Stan Smith ones) and Thom McAn. 

 

In terms of the Mean Girls thing, my wife told me that she heard there was a mean girl in training in one of the kindergarten classes who was telling certain girls to wear something specific (like red shoes) so they could have the same thing on.  It starts early.

 

Not easy being young sometimes.

 

The location probably makes a difference, I grew up on the east coast in a lower-middle class (at best) area, so we kind of knew that wearing OP meant that we were just following what was going on out west.  That, and there were many kids who couldn't afford it, not just one or two.  Same thing with Nike, it was cool to have it if you did, but most kids didn't because it was expensive, so no one got made fun of.

 

Yes they do start young and it isn't always with clothes.  In my daughters elementary school, this had to be 3rd grade, they had a big problem with a group of girls calling themselves the "3CG Club" harassing girls at recess to tears over the fact that they lived in a house with a 2 (or fewer) car garage.  My daughter didn't get harassed because we have 3, but some of her friends did.  This certainly would never have happened in the town I grew up in.

 

It's a shame that kind of thing occurs. 

[ERICOPOLY]

 

I get the sense that like you said things like electronics are more important now than clothes with the boys.  I think too that ever since the grunge days that being disheveled is ok.  I remember a friend of mine with older kids telling me a year or 2 back that most boys had adopted the Vince from Entourage look, which made me laugh.

 

In terms of my story, it wasn't like everyone was a bunch of fashionistas, but there were certain brands that were important.  I grew up in So Cal so maybe it was different, I don't know.  I do recall that OP and Lightning Bolt were good, Hang Ten was not.  My parents put me in Stride Rite shoes and that was a no no.  Nike was just getting big and that was good, along with Adidas (remember the Stan Smith ones) and Thom McAn. 

 

In terms of the Mean Girls thing, my wife told me that she heard there was a mean girl in training in one of the kindergarten classes who was telling certain girls to wear something specific (like red shoes) so they could have the same thing on.  It starts early.

 

Not easy being young sometimes.

 

The location probably makes a difference, I grew up on the east coast in a lower-middle class (at best) area, so we kind of knew that wearing OP meant that we were just following what was going on out west.  That, and there were many kids who couldn't afford it, not just one or two.  Same thing with Nike, it was cool to have it if you did, but most kids didn't because it was expensive, so no one got made fun of.

 

Yes they do start young and it isn't always with clothes.  In my daughters elementary school, this had to be 3rd grade, they had a big problem with a group of girls calling themselves the "3CG Club" harassing girls at recess to tears over the fact that they lived in a house with a 2 (or fewer) car garage.  My daughter didn't get harassed because we have 3, but some of her friends did.  This certainly would never have happened in the town I grew up in.

 

Ridiculous.  But kids will look for any differentiator they can find to construct "in" groups and "out" groups--it's natural and unless the parents talk to their kids about this sort of thing it's going to happen.

 

The parents still behave this way -- they have clothes that are in style to belong to that implicit club of people who can afford clothes that are in style, they drive new cars to belong to that club of people who can afford to drive new cars, they belong to social clubs to belong to that group of people who are worthy of being invited to join that social club. 

 

And finally, when they give money to charity they even screw that all up -- setting up foundations in their own names or making sure their name goes onto the new building at the university.  Some even named the universities after themselves.  To make sure everyone knows without question how great of people they are!  It's one more way to publicly flex your financial sex appeal.  A guy who gives his last $100 to charity is more generous than a guy with $100million who makes a $1million donation in his name with a big ribbon cutting ceremony and media news coverage.

 

But that really sucks it happens in 1st grade.

[Liberty]

Yeah, it's evolutionary psychology 101. Won't change any time soon, though on the individual level it's possible to become conscious of these traits and try to reign them in. Also, some people are more 'tone deaf' to these things than others (ie. I tend not to give a crap about all that signalling stuff, but who knows if that's just a contrarian type of signalling, showing that I'm above all that, so I must be cool, right?). Heh.

[constructive]

I did also recently ask her about Vera Bradley as I've been watching it (but standing on the sidelines because of the bulge in inventory that management expects over the next few months).  She said Vera was more popular with a slightly younger age group (probably middle schoolers).

 

This is an interesting comment.

 

Consumer Handbag Survey

 

"Vera Bradley’s ownership and awareness follow a barbell pattern with age and income; women under 30/over 50 years old and under $50,000/over $100,000 in household income lead ownership/awareness."

 

Brand              % Ownership  # Bags Per Owner

Coach                        68%                      3.6

Vera Bradley              41%                      3.2

kate spade                34%                      2.2

Michael Kors              23%                      2.0

[CorpRaider]

Yeah, you guys are right, children are horrible people and they don't get better with age.  hah!

[rkbabang]

Yeah, you guys are right, children are horrible people and they don't get better with age.  hah!

 

No, no, you got it all wrong. My children are fine, other people's children suck.

As do most adults, besides me.

I hope that clears it up a little.

 

[Green King]

Herding and it's effects are what make us human. The best thing that can be done is to try to teach your kids the advantage of ignoring the crowd and think for themselves like free individual.

 

On the side note fashion or retail seems to hard to know. Due to its dependence on herding and clever influence game by marketers. (This game is a hard one and it is ever changing over time)

[Palantir]

I did also recently ask her about Vera Bradley as I've been watching it (but standing on the sidelines because of the bulge in inventory that management expects over the next few months).  She said Vera was more popular with a slightly younger age group (probably middle schoolers).

 

This is an interesting comment.

 

Consumer Handbag Survey

 

"Vera Bradley’s ownership and awareness follow a barbell pattern with age and income; women under 30/over 50 years old and under $50,000/over $100,000 in household income lead ownership/awareness."

 

Brand              % Ownership  # Bags Per Owner

Coach                        68%                      3.6

Vera Bradley              41%                      3.2

kate spade                34%                      2.2

Michael Kors              23%                      2.0

 

Excellent link sir. Reading up on COH.