Do you think Bitcoin is a safe store of value?

[Valuebo]

yeah, the number of people who have heard of bitcoin went up 1000x, and the number of transactions went up twice. Im not sure what you mean by logaritmic.

 

 

If you make the scale logarithmic and the function is a straight line it means the rise is exponential. It went from 100 to 63k in 4.5 years. Compared with a year ago it's increased nearly 8-fold.

 

https://blockchain.info/nl/charts/n-transactions?timespan=1year&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=7&show_header=true&scale=1&address=

 

Hu? Hardly 8-fold and not even close to a double. I don't see why the first 3.5 years are relevant if this growth has vanished over the last year. You would at least expect a few hundred thousands transactions by now to keep up with the exponential growth no?

[Libs]

http://online.wsj.com/articles/lawrence-parks-bitcoins-futile-quest-to-be-a-currency-1401661605

 

Since the IRS treats bitcoins as property, every transaction will create a taxable event ( as it is converted back and forth to dollars).

 

 

[wachtwoord]

yeah, the number of people who have heard of bitcoin went up 1000x, and the number of transactions went up twice. Im not sure what you mean by logaritmic.

 

 

If you make the scale logarithmic and the function is a straight line it means the rise is exponential. It went from 100 to 63k in 4.5 years. Compared with a year ago it's increased nearly 8-fold.

 

https://blockchain.info/nl/charts/n-transactions?timespan=1year&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=7&show_header=true&scale=1&address=

 

Hu? Hardly 8-fold and not even close to a double. I don't see why the first 3.5 years are relevant if this growth has vanished over the last year. You would at least expect a few hundred thousands transactions by now to keep up with the exponential growth no?

 

You're right I misread the graph. It's more than a double though https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-excluding-popular?timespan=1year&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=7&show_header=true&scale=1&address=

[jb85]

 

Now why is nobody using it? It isn't better. It is more hassle, and it has more risk. It is a inferior form of payment in everyway compared to banks and credit cards.

 

 

*carrying large amounts of money across borders is a hassle now (potentially very easy with bitcoin)

 

*waiting multiple days for bank transfers is again way to slow and costly (no waiting time for bitcoins...at the most 1 hour wait and only for very large transactions)

 

*small transaction are effectively impossible with credit cards (much more economical with bitcoin) - could lead to programmable currency (example: microtipping other cars wirelessly on the high way in order to pass them when you are in a rush)

 

*its one of the better currencies for the global black market.  using the money supply vs size of black market...you can arrive at a nice floor for the bitcoin (much higher than now...considering that black market is at least a few Trillion $ in size).  much more convenient for those using the black market, to use bitcoin.  As awareness grows, so will adoption rate in this market

 

I agree its a pain now, but the internet was a pain in the pre-browser era...didn't mean there wasn't potential.  Furthermore, the hassle is entirely a result of existing regulations (coinbase taking days to verify your identity, etc).  At its base, with bitcoin, i could send money to someone in exchange for bitcoins and it would take only minutes (in fact i did this with bitfloor...dude was running his site from a personal checking acct..i just deposited cash into that account).  All the extra hassle is not an issue with bitcoin at its core...and hassles will naturally vary according to local laws. 

 

You got to kinda skate to where the puck is going to be on this one.

 

edit: furthermore, adoption doesn't work as you implied. Just because 1 billion people have heard of bitcoin, doesn't mean they should all go out and buy bitcoin instantly.  There's social proof and self education that needs to occur for people.  For my own case, it took me more than 6 months after hearing about bitcoin before i bought my first coin. 

 

to use the internet analogy again...many people had heard about the internet in 1993 or 1994...yet only a minority were online at that time.  It takes time for populations to adopt technologies. 

 

by most metrics, the number of bitcoin users is increasing by about 10x per year.  we'll see if that continues, but if it does anything close to 10x new users per year then that's plenty quick for me

[tradevestor]

I see the value in using bitcoin for sending money to someone living abroad.  I also see how this is attractive to sellers. However, I fail to understand what's the incentive for the consumers in everyday transactions. 

 

1) I get 1% or 2% cashback if I use credit card. 

 

2) In order to get bitcoin, I have to pay 1% to coinbase.  So, overall, I lose upto 3% on every transaction.

 

3) If I have a dispute, I can call Amex and get the transaction canceled. Not possible with bitcoin.

 

4) As per the IRS ruling, I have to keep an account of every transaction,  compute capital gains/ losses based FIFO,  and file it with tax returns.  This could be automated with software, still it is an extra hassle.

 

5) I have to take currency fluctuation risk.

 

[wachtwoord]

I see the value in using bitcoin for sending money to someone living abroad.  I also see how this is attractive to sellers. However, I fail to understand what's the incentive for the consumers in everyday transactions. 

 

1) I get 1% or 2% cashback if I use credit card. 

 

No you don't. For every product you buy you pay 4-6% more because of the credit card companies. They give you back a little bit to fool you.

 

2) In order to get bitcoin, I have to pay 1% to coinbase.  So, overall, I lose upto 3% on every transaction.

 

There are more ways to get Bitcoin then Coinbase? When I need to buy Dollars I pay more than 1% to my bank (fx fees). You only need to buy Bitcoins once.

 

3) If I have a dispute, I can call Amex and get the transaction canceled. Not possible with bitcoin.

 

Yes, and because of that products are 4-6% more expensive (don't forget retailers are low margin businesses).

 

4) As per the IRS ruling, I have to keep an account of every transaction,  compute capital gains/ losses based FIFO,  and file it with tax returns.  This could be automated with software, still it is an extra hassle.

 

No way are they going to enforce this. Secondly, it's only the USA.

 

5) I have to take currency fluctuation risk.

 

You always have inflation risk as fiat currencies are inflated like crazy. It's actually not even a risk, it's a certainty.

[tradevestor]

 

No you don't. For every product you buy you pay 4-6% more because of the credit card companies. They give you back a little bit to fool you.

 

 

However, I am not going to get a 5% discount on products if I use bitcoin. In some states, it is illegal to have a different pricing for credit card transactions.

 

So, if I have to pay an extra 4-6% anyway, why not get cash back and purchase protection ?  Again, what's the consumers' incentive here to switch to bitcoin ?

[wachtwoord]

 

No you don't. For every product you buy you pay 4-6% more because of the credit card companies. They give you back a little bit to fool you.

 

 

However, I am not going to get a 5% discount on products if I use bitcoin. In some states, it is illegal to have a different pricing for credit card transactions.

 

So, if I have to pay an extra 4-6% anyway, why not get cash back and purchase protection ?  Again, what's the consumers' incentive here to switch to bitcoin ?

 

Long term? Credit card companies will lose the majority of their moat. Intermediate term? margins of credit card companies will erode, either because paying with the credit card will be more expensive or if the government misbehaves and disallows a difference in pricing between credit cards and other payment options the credit cards will slowly be dropped. Short term? Probably not much but people will probably start cancelling their credit cards and save the yearly fee. The only reason I have a credit card is because I have it for free and outside of the USA a lot less people have a percentage.

[jb85]

 

No you don't. For every product you buy you pay 4-6% more because of the credit card companies. They give you back a little bit to fool you.

 

 

However, I am not going to get a 5% discount on products if I use bitcoin. In some states, it is illegal to have a different pricing for credit card transactions.

 

So, if I have to pay an extra 4-6% anyway, why not get cash back and purchase protection ?  Again, what's the consumers' incentive here to switch to bitcoin ?

 

so why not blame the excessive regulations that don't allow for adaptive pricing based on payment method (ie "it is illegal to have a different pricing for cc transactions").  Doesn't it seem insane to anyone else that we have a lower cost way of transacting and yet we are basically penalized for using that low cost method?  The issues are with the regulations...not bitcoin itself.  That's like blaming toyota for detroit's inability to make a cheap reliable car.

 

I'd personally rather have the option.  Get a 5% cheaper product when i'm sure i don't need the protection...and use a (bitcoin backed) insured card that charges me 5% more for the option of protection, etc.  Seems to me more options would be a good thing.

[wachtwoord]

 

No you don't. For every product you buy you pay 4-6% more because of the credit card companies. They give you back a little bit to fool you.

 

 

However, I am not going to get a 5% discount on products if I use bitcoin. In some states, it is illegal to have a different pricing for credit card transactions.

 

So, if I have to pay an extra 4-6% anyway, why not get cash back and purchase protection ?  Again, what's the consumers' incentive here to switch to bitcoin ?

 

so why not blame the excessive regulations that don't allow for adaptive pricing based on payment method (ie "it is illegal to have a different pricing for cc transactions").  Doesn't it seem insane to anyone else that we have a lower cost way of transacting and yet we are basically penalized for using that low cost method?  The issues are with the regulations...not bitcoin itself.  That's like blaming toyota for detroit's inability to make a cheap reliable car.

 

I'd personally rather have the option.  Get a 5% cheaper product when i'm sure i don't need the protection...and use a (bitcoin backed) insured card that charges me 5% more for the option of protection, etc.  Seems to me more options would be a good thing.

 

And I'll tell you this much: the 5% extra option won't be popular ;)

[rkbabang]

Texas family journeyed to New Hampshire using only bitcoin

 

"Bleish and her husband, John Bush, drove from San Marcos, Texas, between Austin and San Antonio, to Lancaster, in New Hampshire’s Great North Woods, for the Porcupine Freedom Festival, an annual campsite gathering of the Free State Project. They packed 2-year-old Aliana and 16-month-old Bill into the minivan and traveled almost the entire 4,400-mile journey spending only bitcoin for everything from hotel rooms to snacks...."

 

"They found one restaurant in Washington, D.C., and one in New York that accepted bitcoin directly, and participated in a pilot program at a Holiday Inn in Brooklyn. In all three cases, though, the employee cashing out their bill had to call a supervisor for help. “It’s been a learning experience for us, to know that even if they say they accept bitcoin, they’re still learning,” Bleish said..."

 

[rkbabang]

I just got a spam/ad email from Newegg today, they are offering 10% off your order if you pay with bitcoin.

 

http://promotions.newegg.com/nepro/14-3631/index.html

 

[Liberty]

http://www.philosophicaleconomics.com/2014/10/btc/

[yadayada]

And still no rise in the number of transactions. This thing is heading for below 10$.

[wachtwoord]

And still no rise in the number of transactions. This thing is heading for below 10$.

 

It's at an ATH. What data are you looking at?

[kfh227]

Fiat currency is backed by governments.

The Gold standard used to be backed by gold.

 

Nothing backs bitcoins.  It is just a game of greater fool theory.  Some old school value investing quotes:

 

 

 

 

There will be bag holders and they are probably the same people that were holding the bag in 2000.

[jb85]

http://www.mauldineconomics.com/frontlinethoughts/is-bitcoin-the-future/

[constructive]

$100 per transaction is not sustainable. Let's say $10 per transaction is a fair price. Either transaction volume has to increase 10x or BTC has to drop 90%.

 

As predicted, cost per transaction is now below $10.

 

https://blockchain.info/charts/cost-per-transaction?timespan=all&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

 

By my math the average transaction amount is roughly $60,000,000 per day / 80,000 transactions per day = $750. Which seems surprisingly high (though I'm sure the median is much lower, and probably over 90% of transaction volume is speculative). At current levels Bitcoin's cost and speed appears attractive compared to Western Union and Moneygram.

[rkbabang]

I purchased some bitcoin for the first time last week.  I bought 2 BTC at about $185 each.  Speculation, of course.  I'm just going to sit on them and see what happens.  Maybe buy a few more if the price drops significantly from here. I used coinbase.com.

 

My theory is that in 25 years 1 bitcoin is going to either be worth the equivalent of $1M 2015 USD with people using nanobitcoins for most transactions (people will get paid in bitcoin, buy everything in bitcoin, oil and stocks will be traded in BTC, etc)... Or it is going to be worth $0 and be long forgotten.  It is either going to catch on in a huge way or die out completely.  I don't see any other mid-way scenario being possible.

 

[jb85]

I posted this a while back on reddit.  A lot of it is just wild speculation and guessing at short term price for bitcoin, but the main long term thing to know is that mtgox, the exchange that was "hacked" a while back, was actually committing massive fraud and artificially pumped up the price of bitcoin, basically causing both 2013 bubbles.

 

Bitcoin still has a chance to succeed, but just need to temper expectations a bit.  anyways, more in the link below (read comments as well for info):

 

 

 

[Liberty]

It is either going to catch on in a huge way or die out completely.  I don't see any other mid-way scenario being possible.

 

Here's another possible scenario: A different cryptocurrency catches on (because of a better design, because of some event with Bitcoin, etc).

[rkbabang]

It is either going to catch on in a huge way or die out completely.  I don't see any other mid-way scenario being possible.

 

Here's another possible scenario: A different cryptocurrency catches on (because of a better design, because of some event with Bitcoin, etc).

 

That fits into the $0 scenario of my theory.  If some other cryptocurrency catches on, bitcoin will be worthless.

 

[innerscorecard]

I purchased some bitcoin for the first time last week.  I bought 2 BTC at about $185 each.  Speculation, of course.  I'm just going to sit on them and see what happens.  Maybe buy a few more if the price drops significantly from here. I used coinbase.com.

 

My theory is that in 25 years 1 bitcoin is going to either be worth the equivalent of $1M 2015 USD with people using nanobitcoins for most transactions (people will get paid in bitcoin, buy everything in bitcoin, oil and stocks will be traded in BTC, etc)... Or it is going to be worth $0 and be long forgotten.  It is either going to catch on in a huge way or die out completely.  I don't see any other mid-way scenario being possible.

 

If Bitcoin becomes the dominant technology for transferring money, why would holding the instrument make you fantastically wealthy? It's like what Buffett said comparing Bitcoin to checks. Checks were a great way to transfer money as well. Does that mean you should buy checks in the hope they will appreciate in value?

 

That said, I have a few USD worth of Bitcoin that I received as tips on reddit. I'm not in a hurry to sell them.

 

(Edited for a spelling typo only.)

[jb85]

i never got the whole bitcoin as ONLY a way to xfer money.  Having a blockchain with a bunch of miners is an incredibly INEFFICIENT way to manage a database.  Pretty much the only benefit is that its relatively trustless.

 

if its just xfering money, then paypal or some similar centralized tech would be much cheaper.

 

i'm doubling down on the initial thesis. Bitcoin's main function (IF is suceeds) is as a currency.  Its not primarily a replacement to western union or paypal.  Its a replacement for currencies.

 

Satoshi didn't include a news article about western union in the genesis block.  he included a news article about something else.

[innerscorecard]

The actually usable benefit is that the transfer of money is hard to regulate. You can evade currency transfer restrictions. Such as in China. I'm surprised you are such a Bitcoin bull and haven't thought about that at all.