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kfh227

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  1. The turn around that I thought would never work even though I saw the news at the time that they were modifying their business plan: Pier 1 imports https://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=0&chdd=1&chds=0&chdv=1&chvs=Logarithmic&chdeh=0&chfdeh=0&chdet=1377288000000&chddm=445345&chls=IntervalBasedLine&q=NYSE:PIR&ntsp=0&ei=2udrWJjZM429e83Rr9AM A low of 11 cents and high of $20 on the run up. Anyone that threw a couple grand at it is likely very happy today!
  2. The problem with Tesla is that their tech can be copied. The thing is, other companies know what consumer want other than the electric car part. http://www.siliconbeat.com/2016/09/08/apple-co-founder-may-swap-tesla-gms-bolt/
  3. Fairfax Financial Berkshire Hathaway possibly: JNJ Bottom line is, for buy and forget investments, I'd do diversified conglomerates. Like having a hedge fund without all the BS that comes with a hedge fund.
  4. I've seen this with BBRY (and other stocks). It's more akin to any news good or bad can swing stock prices wildly in either direction. And it isn't always tied to good or bad news can drive stock prices up or down with no sense of rationality.
  5. Go to the Disney (trip planning) forums. People are starting to get VERY pissed at pricing models that Disney is putting out for Disney World. They are heading towards micro transactions for everything. Some laugh that they will start charging for popular rides in park soon. They already screwed up fast pass to where it is pointless. All it really does is force you to walk through the park more (in sun and heat usually). But all that walking in the heat makes you more thirsty and the $3 Coke bottles are waiting for you. I question their purchase of the Star Wars franchise. Light sabers going through bodies and blood on storm trooper masks. It's a along shoot admittedly but if Disney starts going after the ten market aggressively, they could destroy their "parent friendly" brand. Storm troopers walking through hotels may scare and confuse 5 year olds. They show this in a commercial of them going through the Grand Floridian. I used to love Disney but these days, I am caring much less about it. Some of the magic is gone. I am just worried about direction. My fear is that if the direction is maintained, that the brand will be destroyed.
  6. Not sure if you're serious...but if so, that is such an illogical argument. Illogical if you want the system "to work" whatever that means to you, but not illogical at all if you're goal is the crumbling of the system. The more hatred and disgust politics engenders the less people will look to it to solve problems. The best outcome possible is for people to think of politics as a nasty process that is irrelevant to their lives and to dismiss it completely. At best, it will begin a shift away from politicians running the country and instead, having the country run by it's citizens. As weird as that sounds, we've gone to far for to long in the wrong direction. I'll vote for anyone that is not a career politician knowing only that one fact. OK, they also have to show some level of reasonable intelligence.
  7. It's just game theory being used in practice. He is playing a game. And doing a good job at it. You start by campaigning to the extreme viewpoints. Get them in your corner. Then gradually shift to the middle while gradually capturing the rooks that are less crazy. By the time he starts debating Hillary, he'll sound just like her. Here's the deal. The poor and middle class are best off with Bernie. There is no hope with Hilary. Sadly, Trump has said some thing that make it appear as though he is going to try to move the money curve back to the people that work. At worse, Trump will be a typical politician. At best, he'll actually do things to help a majority of the citizenship of the USA. Hilary at worse is a politiacian. At best Hilary is just a politician. To be honest and open, my choices are: 1) Bernie 2) Trump 3) Abstain - who cares, we're screwed either way.
  8. If oil were to rebound to $50+ are there any companies that are worthless today that will be profitable?
  9. Or the rebublican desires: "How to put on a path of destruction the planet Earth."
  10. HOG: Young people could give a rats ass about this brand. It's for old people over 60 with money.
  11. Production needs to drop. And that will happen by attrition. That is, current wells will continue to produce since the capital outlays were made anyway. And the companies need to service the debt they have. But eventually, production will be reduced and supply/demand will improve and bring oil prices back up. That one issue with price. The other is the strength in the US dollar. There is a strong correlation between the value of the US dollar and the price of oil. This is because of the ol' petrodollar. Most oil is traded in US dollars. So more oil can be had for less when the US dollar is strong. So there are two issues: Strong US dollar and oversupply. Now if you can determine when oil production will drop and/or when the US dollar will fall you can then start making predictions about future oil prices. Oil production will fall In the next 5 years. This will happen because of attrition. But the US dollar? I have a feeling that it will be strong for a while. Spoiler: Figure out when each and every oil company that is financially weak will go under and what will happen to their assets. And determine their impact on supply. And factor that in also. So, god knows when oil prices will go up (or down). This is why Buffet has a "to hard" pile.
  12. FWIW: I just watched a relative sell a high end vacation home. It took him about 5 years to sell it. The problem is that the location is extremely rare but the market of buyers is equally small. It sold for about $440 per square foot and sat on 5 acres.
  13. How much will you spend maintenance over the same time? And fuel does make a difference. The average driver will spend $2400 a year in fuel and the AAA estimates the average maintenance cost is 6 cents per mile. Over 10 years assuming average driving habit that's an additional $36k, $24k on fuel alone. The model 3 is estimated to be $35k. Lets assume he's off on this like he was on the model S for argument sake and say $40k. Typically the government rebate is about $8k from what I've read. So we're at $32k for a model 3. I've read multiple articles from Tesla owners (maybe Eric can confirm) who have said the only maintenance is tires. Which is a wash since every car needs them. Even the battery is under warranty for 8 years as per the Tesla website. But I'll also say we don't really know much about maintenance past 5 years since the car is so new. You forgot to factor in the fact that electricity is not free. I don't even know if it is cheaper than gas today. I know it was a few years ago when gas prices were ridiculous. EDIT: That was easy. The cost of electricity in Connecticut is $1.80 in terms of gasoline prices. So you save about 20% on gas. You save mayebe 40% if you live in Texas. Seems to vary wildly: http://energy.gov/articles/egallon-how-much-cheaper-it-drive-electricity
  14. For luxury, used Lincolns with low mileage. Why used? These things tank in value with 40K miles. Or buy a new Prius. And sell it in 2-3 years as a private party sale. The value will drop about $3K. Let's say it drops $3600 over 3 years (36 months). So you are in reality paying $100/month for it (ignoring insurance, gas, maintenance, etc). If course, this is all true when you look at data for cars that are 3 years old now. Not necessarily what things will be like in 3 years. The Prius can't dominate the hybrid market forever. And when that changes, so will the resale values.
  15. Blackberry is out of business. But, they have positive free cash flows and positive total equity. And will probably have positive earnings this year.
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