bmichaud Posted November 7, 2012 Author Share Posted November 7, 2012 A value trap it was >:( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
treasurehunt Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 I think it is interesting to see how accurate the poll quants turned out to be in predicting this election, especially compared to pundits and even when compared to the betting markets. Most of the quants had 332 electoral votes for Obama as the most likely outcome, followed by 303 votes for Obama as the second most likely scenario. Couldn't have called it any better. But I am sure this won't stop the pundits from delivering their own predictions with great confidence when the next election rolls around. Math and logic trump biased mumbo jumbo. It seems I have heard that story before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zarley Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 The wishful thinking and willful denial of reality in this election and to a certain extent this thread is baffling to me. A little reading of Nate Silver (538) and Sam Wang (Princeton) was about all you needed to know where the race was. Back to investing discussion then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 The wishful thinking and willful denial of reality in this election and to a certain extent this thread is baffling to me. A little reading of Nate Silver (538) and Sam Wang (Princeton) was about all you needed to know where the race was. Back to investing discussion then? There are good lessons in this thread and others on denying reality. Anecdotally, I haven't seen any evidence that value investors are less susceptible to the biases they work hard to protect against. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PlanMaestro Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 There are good lessons in this thread and others on denying reality. Anecdotally, I haven't seen any evidence that value investors are less susceptible to the biases they work hard to protect against. Back to investing and just added to my checklist: Is this just math you do as a [fill-the-blank] to make yourself feel better or is this real Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tengen Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 I recently started reading Daniel Kahneman's Thinking Fast and Slow, which I'm enjoying so far, and this strikes me as a System 1 (fast, emotional, "gut feeling") vs System 2 (slow, logical, calculating). Maybe someone should buy copies for the people who were slagging Silver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 Dammit, the Republicans won. Cheer Up, Republicans You’re going to have a moderate Republican president for the next four years: Barack Obama. http://tinyurl.com/ajxup7z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eclecticvalue Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 I recently started reading Daniel Kahneman's Thinking Fast and Slow, which I'm enjoying so far, and this strikes me as a System 1 (fast, emotional, "gut feeling") vs System 2 (slow, logical, calculating). Maybe someone should buy copies for the people who were slagging Silver. Or read Nate Silver's recently released book. I am planning on reading it soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santayana Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 LOL, thanks for that link Eric. Looks like you are enjoying life in California 8) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 LOL, thanks for that link Eric. Looks like you are enjoying life in California 8) Yes, it's just about perfect weather here. Just what I needed. You probably read that I started riding horses (first lesson today). I will soon be taking surfing lessons too (got a board from Costco). The Santa Barbara area is pretty much kick ass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysinvert Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 LOL, thanks for that link Eric. Looks like you are enjoying life in California 8) Yes, it's just about perfect weather here. Just what I needed. You probably read that I started riding horses (first lesson today). I will soon be taking surfing lessons too (got a board from Costco). The Santa Barbara area is pretty much kick ass. You should probably consider ecstasy instead :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PlanMaestro Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 Frequentist vs Bayesian. http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7261/8169837118_dde2d687cc.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olmsted Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 Good comic! XKCD? This train of thought is just for fun, and I know it's easy to poke holes in some of the setup below. Anyway, just for kicks, here goes! I was a little puzzled by the market reaction following the result. It surprised me - not because I think Obama is good for business - but because I thought his victory would have been baked in. Perhaps not. If the market is at least a pretty efficient discounting mechanism most of the time, the market price on Tuesday should have been anticipating the expected value of two states of the world dependent upon a discrete event - the election. Here goes: Price on Tuesday = p(Romney wins) x (Value of market given a Romney presidency) + p(Obama wins) x (Value of market given an Obama presidency) Let's say that the Intrade odds are the best reflection of how the marginal sophisticated investor was thinking about the election. I couldn't find the Intrade odds at 1600 on Tuesday, so let's use the title odds of this post. For the left side of the equation, let's use the closing price of the Dow on Tuesday. And the closing price the day after the election for the term on the far right. 13245.68 = (.28) x (Value of market given a Romney presidency) + .72 x 12932.73 We can infer from Wednesday's price drop that the market would have been worth 14050 on Wednesday had Romney won. A full 1117.69 points. The market told us that the value of American business under Romney would be worth a full 8.64% more than it is worth under Obama! Actually sounds about right to me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cayale Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 LOL, thanks for that link Eric. Looks like you are enjoying life in California 8) Yes, it's just about perfect weather here. Just what I needed. You probably read that I started riding horses (first lesson today). I will soon be taking surfing lessons too (got a board from Costco). The Santa Barbara area is pretty much kick ass. You should probably consider ecstasy instead :) That is fantastic. Ah, to have British cable! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysinvert Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 Some interesting stuff on Intrade: http://www.overcomingbias.com/2012/11/was-intrade-being-manipulated-over-the-last-month.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PlanMaestro Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 David Nutt has a book just coming out http://www.amazon.com/Drugs-Without-Hot-David-Nutt/dp/1906860165 Yes, it's just about perfect weather here. Just what I needed. You probably read that I started riding horses (first lesson today). I will soon be taking surfing lessons too (got a board from Costco). The Santa Barbara area is pretty much kick ass. You should probably consider ecstasy instead :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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