Natural gas

[yadayada]

I think that article talks about oil. Shale oil and gas are very different. Gas they blow water into rocks to crack them and get the gas out. With Shale oil It hink they just take rocks out of the ground and crack them above ground which is relatively more expensive. It has different cost and risks drilling shale oil vs shale gas. I think shale oil is overrated too.

[gordoffh]

a chuckle with my morning tea

[Zorrofan]

I think that article talks about oil. Shale oil and gas are very different. Gas they blow water into rocks to crack them and get the gas out. With Shale oil It hink they just take rocks out of the ground and crack them above ground which is relatively more expensive. It has different cost and risks drilling shale oil vs shale gas. I think shale oil is overrated too.

 

You have to be careful not to confuse shale oil with oil shale...there is a difference.  If I recall correctly shale oil is oil trapped in shale rock similar to nat gas, and can be fracked just like nat gas. Oil shale is in the rock and can be mined similar to coal. Shell had a big deposit in Colorado it spent something like 40 years trying to figure out.......

 

http://www.shell.us/aboutshell/projects-locations/mahogany.html

 

cheers

Zorro

[txlaw]

I think that article talks about oil. Shale oil and gas are very different. Gas they blow water into rocks to crack them and get the gas out. With Shale oil It hink they just take rocks out of the ground and crack them above ground which is relatively more expensive. It has different cost and risks drilling shale oil vs shale gas. I think shale oil is overrated too.

 

You have to be careful not to confuse shale oil with oil shale...there is a difference.  If I recall correctly shale oil is oil trapped in shale rock similar to nat gas, and can be fracked just like nat gas. Oil shale is in the rock and can be mined similar to coal. Shell had a big deposit in Colorado it spent something like 40 years trying to figure out.......

 

http://www.shell.us/aboutshell/projects-locations/mahogany.html

 

cheers

Zorro

 

Wikipedia, my friends, Wikipedia . . .

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shale_oil

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tight_oil

 

;)

[Aberhound]

Is it time to invest in natural gas because of declining oil prices? Oil shale production has high decline so that lower oil prices should quickly cause a decline in production as oil prices drop below break-even. Producers are better off to leave the oil in the ground to be produced later when prices are more favourable.

 

In contrast oil sands, a big user of natural gas, has high fixed costs so even if oil prices decline, production won't stop until the oil prices drop below the marginal cost of production.

 

Consequently a sustained drop in oil prices below $80 should cause natural gas prices to rise. I suspect Exxon is the safest bet to benefit from this trend. Any guesses how long oil prices would have to remain below $80 before the high oil shale decline rate drops gas production sufficiently to raise natural gas prices?

[jay21]

Are there any good free websites/blogs/publications/periodicals on the energy markets that someone could recommend?

[CorpRaider]

Cheneir's guy was on mad money last night (I know, I know, but the tease of Harold Ham and Salouki or whatever his name is, sucked me in); anyhow he said he does see potential for some lower NG production if oil prices dip enough to halt cap ex because NG is basically being produced as a byproduct to oil drilling in NA.  For what that is worth.

[fareastwarriors]

New York Gets Frigid Winter Warning From Siberia Snowfall

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-14/new-york-gets-frigid-winter-warning-from-siberia-snowfall.html

 

 

 

 

OPEC Finding U.S. Shale Harder to Crack as Rout Deepens

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-15/opec-finding-u-s-shale-harder-to-crack-as-rout-deepens.html

[fareastwarriors]

Shale Boom Helping American Consumers as Never Before

 

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-16/shale-boom-helping-american-consumers-like-never-before.html

[fareastwarriors]

Natural-Gas Prices Fall Even With Chill Nearing

 

When Cold Weather Looms, Natural-Gas Prices Usually Rise—This Year They Are Falling

 

 

http://online.wsj.com/articles/natural-gas-prices-fall-even-with-chill-nearing-1413762964?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection

[fareastwarriors]

Natural Gas Is Taking Over

 

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-10-23/natural-gas-is-taking-over-ritholtz-chart

[gordoffh]

As Encana sells off gas assets. Bought oil at the top sells gas. Who is right?

 

[fareastwarriors]

Natural-Gas Bulls: Better Luck Next Year

 

Cold Winter Isn’t Good Enough Reason to Bet on Higher Gas Prices

 

 

 

http://online.wsj.com/articles/natural-gas-bulls-better-luck-next-year-heard-on-the-street-1414086555

[fareastwarriors]

In Oil’s Slide, Echoes of a Fall

 

Adapted From the Paperback Edition of ‘The Frackers: The Outrageous Inside Story of the New Billionaire Wildcatters’

 

 

http://online.wsj.com/articles/in-oils-slide-echoes-of-a-fall-1414973423

[Zorrofan]

Natural-Gas Bulls: Better Luck Next Year

 

Cold Winter Isn’t Good Enough Reason to Bet on Higher Gas Prices

 

 

 

http://online.wsj.com/articles/natural-gas-bulls-better-luck-next-year-heard-on-the-street-1414086555

 

thanks for posting all of these links!  Are you betting on another cold winter?

 

cheers

Zorro

 

 

[Uccmal]

Natural-Gas Bulls: Better Luck Next Year

 

Cold Winter Isn’t Good Enough Reason to Bet on Higher Gas Prices

 

 

 

http://online.wsj.com/articles/natural-gas-bulls-better-luck-next-year-heard-on-the-street-1414086555

 

thanks for posting all of these links!  Are you betting on another cold winter?

 

cheers

Zorro

 

 

 

Obviously, betting on the weather is a mugs game but a cold winter isn't looking promising:

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html

 

 

[Zorrofan]

Natural-Gas Bulls: Better Luck Next Year

 

Cold Winter Isn’t Good Enough Reason to Bet on Higher Gas Prices

 

 

 

http://online.wsj.com/articles/natural-gas-bulls-better-luck-next-year-heard-on-the-street-1414086555

 

thanks for posting all of these links!  Are you betting on another cold winter?

 

cheers

Zorro

 

 

 

Obviously, betting on the weather is a mugs game but a cold winter isn't looking promising:

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html

 

what the heck is driving natural gas up today? 

 

and yes, betting on a cold winter is a mug's game - long term fundamentals are better though....potential for exports, conversion of trucking industry, switch from coal to natural gas to replace aging coal plants,  increasing demand from chemical co's etc, etc,

 

cheers

Zorro

[jeffmori7]

A good read in Nature on fracking: http://www.nature.com/news/natural-gas-the-fracking-fallacy-1.16430

[Valuebo]

Holy shit, guess this is just going to zero huh?

[shhughes1116]

Holy shit, guess this is just going to zero huh?

 

This is a truly bad situation for all mankind.  The more they publicize crap like this, the sooner that wives around the world will realize that heating the house during the Winter is really not that expensive and thus they will start adjusting the thermostat. 

 

[Liberty]

Natural gas prices went negative for a few days in Alberta... wow

 

In the past few weeks, Alberta’s benchmark AECO prices have fallen into negative territory – meaning producers have had to pay customers to take their gas – on multiple days. Data from Gas Alberta Inc. show AECO prices fell to -7 cents from Oct. 5 through Oct. 9, and were also negative on Sept. 25.

 

“We’ve never seen negative prices before this year,” GMP FirstEnergy analyst Martin King said, adding that he’s been following AECO gas prices since 1993.

 

http://business.financialpost.com/commodities/canadian-natural-gas-prices-enter-negative-territory-amid-pipeline-outages

[BargainValueHunter]

I can't figure out why (with natural gas being ultra-cheap year after year) there has not been a revolution of businesses, utilities and manufacturers ditching coal and petroleum and converting to nearly free NatGas.

[JRM]

I'm not sure about other countries, but in the United States many utilities are not scrambling to build new generation.  They are looking to replace old plants as they age and becoming more expensive to maintain.  There are 60+ year old coal plants that are being shut down and converted/replaced with natural gas plants.  This process takes time. 

 

The load growth profile is much slower than it used to be, so you can't just build new plants without taking something offline.

 

This is the same argument to be made for electric cars replacing ICE vehicles.  You can't ignore the underlying replacement cycle.

[Liberty]

I can't figure out why (with natural gas being ultra-cheap year after year) there has not been a revolution of businesses, utilities and manufacturers ditching coal and petroleum and converting to nearly free NatGas.

 

There's been. Infrastructure is just slow. But almost all new capacity is gas, solar, and wind, and a lot of coal is planned to phase out. Even China has started to move against coal.

 

Solar net additions:

 

[SafetyinNumbers]

Any thoughts on development of the Utica shale in Quebec?

 

We have seen some preliminary regulation put forward this year:

 

http://www.questerre.com/news/2017/09/20/quebec-government-publishes-draft-hydrocarbon-regulations

 

There is also a conference in a few weeks in Montreal:

 

http://www.apgq-qoga.com/en/conference-2017-2/

 

The two biggest players are Questerre and Prairie Provident from what I can see.

 

Questerre (QEC.TO) stock has performed well and they have been able to raise money on the back of future potential development while Prairie Provident ($PPR.TO) has been left behind. Questerre definitely seems to market the potential aggressively while Prairie doesn't talk about it all. The shareholder bases are also dramatically different which perhaps further explains the valuation difference.

 

PPR looks cheap on production from Alberta alone so the QC exposure seems to all be for "free" while, QEC seems to have a lot of value in it for the potential of Quebec.

 

I'm long PPR.