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Do you own Rimm poll


shalab
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Do you own rimm?  

218 members have voted

  1. 1. Do you own rimm?

    • No
    • Yes,
    • Yes >5 and less than 10%
    • Yes>10 and less than 25%
    • I am all in > 25%


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Hell yeah, I own RIM!

 

Won't disclose percentage of portfolio, but it's enough to be painful if RIM gets wiped off of the face of the earth.

 

I like to concentrate my positions.

 

I was actually starting to think you were somewhat diversified--I kept seeing threads where you said you had a position for many threads, but perhaps I just know all your positions.  :P

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Hell yeah, I own RIM!

 

Won't disclose percentage of portfolio, but it's enough to be painful if RIM gets wiped off of the face of the earth.

 

I like to concentrate my positions.

 

I was actually starting to think you were somewhat diversified--I kept seeing threads where you said you had a position for many threads, but perhaps I just know all your positions.  :P

 

Ha, you probably do know all of my positions.  I think I've posted about all of them.

 

I often sell off concentrated positions that are in a loss position to harvest the tax loss and concentrate more into other names, with the intention of buying back and reallocating to the sold position after the wash sale periods are up and other positions have "worked out."

 

So sometimes when I post, I may or may not have a current position.  For example, with SHLD, although I continue to post on it, I don't currently have a position.  I basically got out of it around $70 when it made the big run from $30 to $80.

 

Or with CLWR and with DELL, I substantially reduced my positions to take losses and go heavy into RIM, although I recently re-concentrated back into CLWR and DELL after some more money came in the door for me and after a run up in my NRG LEAPS (which I'm completely out of at the moment).

 

I probably trade a bit more than I should, mostly to offset capital gains with capital losses, but also because sometimes I can't resist thinking that something will be "dead money" for a while, which will allow me to get back in at a later date.

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I own more RIM via Fairfax than I'd like.  Otherwise, no position.

 

Fairfax is my largest holding (about 29% as of right now).  I have no idea why Prem wants to own even a single share of RIMM.  I keep telling myself that he is smarter than I am, which is undoubtedly true, but still... Smart people can make mistakes and fall prey to logical fallacies and inconsistencies in their thinking too.  I have this feeling that won't go away that he just likes RIMM because it is a local company, which hires people from a local school that he likes, that he wishes would succeed.  Those are definitely not reasons to invest.  Hopefully I'm way off base.  Then again RIMM could go to zero and it wouldn't put a huge dent in Fairfax, which is why I still hold FFH.

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There is a serious problem with high intelligence.

 

Smart people are very good at finding arguments for their side, but are really bad at finding arguments for the other side:

 

Perkins found that IQ was by far the biggest predictor of how well people argued, but it predicted only the number of my-side arguments. Smart people make really good lawyers and press secretaries, but they are no better than others at finding reasons on the other side. Perkins concluded that “people invest their IQ in buttressing their own case rather than in exploring the entire issue more fully and evenhandedly.”

http://www.bakadesuyo.com/why-do-some-smart-people-lack-common-sense

 

Very intelligent people tend to act as if their thinking of good reasons changes reality, and I bet you can see how this sometimes causes problems in investing.

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I own more RIM via Fairfax than I'd like.  Otherwise, no position.

 

Fairfax is my largest holding (about 29% as of right now).  I have no idea why Prem wants to own even a single share of RIMM.  I keep telling myself that he is smarter than I am, which is undoubtedly true, but still... Smart people can make mistakes and fall prey to logical fallacies and inconsistencies in their thinking too.  I have this feeling that won't go away that he just likes RIMM because it is a local company, which hires people from a local school that he likes, that he wishes would succeed.  Those are definitely not reasons to invest.  Hopefully I'm way off base.  Then again RIMM could go to zero and it wouldn't put a huge dent in Fairfax, which is why I still hold FFH.

 

To be quite frank, I do think you're way off base.

 

As Uccmal has pointed out before, public statements by Mr. Watsa on individual positions tend to be surface-oriented commentary (see Gurufocus interview).  Berkowitz is the same way.  He rarely goes into the real detailed analysis behind his investments when speaking to the media.  I don't think I've ever seen a recent detailed thesis like the one that he put out there with WFC back in the day.

 

Furthermore, the notion that "Prem has no business being invested in RIM" is wrongheaded, particularly because there is an investment team at FFH, which I am sure has some fairly tech savvy people on board.  I highly doubt that HWIC would be so concentrated in RIM without really tearing apart the business and trying to kill the company. 

 

There is a tendency to dismiss an investment idea when one doesn't understand it.  It's better to either say, I don't get it and wish the investor luck, or actually provide an argument as to why the investment thesis is wrong.

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Fairfax is my largest holding (about 29% as of right now).  I have no idea why Prem wants to own even a single share of RIMM.  I keep telling myself that he is smarter than I am, which is undoubtedly true, but still... Smart people can make mistakes and fall prey to logical fallacies and inconsistencies in their thinking too.  I have this feeling that won't go away that he just likes RIMM because it is a local company, which hires people from a local school that he likes, that he wishes would succeed.  Those are definitely not reasons to invest.  Hopefully I'm way off base.  Then again RIMM could go to zero and it wouldn't put a huge dent in Fairfax, which is why I still hold FFH.

 

This is pretty much my perspective as well.  I think there's a pretty good chance that RIM is a deadman walking; but, I trust Prem and the team at Fairfax -- they get the benefit of the doubt.  And, I could be wrong anyway. 

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I dont own any Rimm.  Took my tax losses in November.  However, I see alot there that has little to do with handsets or consumer direct services.  Suffice to say Rim is never going to be more than a marginal player in that market now, and I think they are well aware of that now. 

 

Following on the smartphone, data service to consumers, I think this is a business that is rapidly commoditizing.  Look for smartphones that do everything an Iphone does in a year or two for well under $100 with no plan.  Google and Android have all but assured this.  The same will happen in the tablet space.  This does not bode well for Nokia or Rimm, or Apple, or HTC, or Samsung.  MSFT always recognized that the best business was software, not hardware.  That bodes better for Apple, Rim, and Google. 

 

Rim specific: Mike Lazaridis still works there and still has influence.  The best thing Rimm could do was get him out of the spotlight to where he can work the magic that invented the reverse pager, without daily distraction. Prem and Barb Stymiest are there to oversee the numbers and overall strategy. 

 

IMO Thorston Heins is there to take the public heat and pass on the vague vision that they will communicate to the public and shareholders.  He is also there to organize the company for a push forward into new areas.  He is not the vision, more like the whippingmboy.

 

QNX has a very valuable franchise in its own right that can be leveraged via RIM through all kinds of household, industrial, and mobile applications.  They are already in military ops., Onstar, and multiple other platforms.  Rim is going to look vastly different in a couple of years. 

 

Like Apple they aren't going to tell everyone what is happening until its released or in use. 

 

I dont think Prem is sentimental enough when it comes to business to plow money into something that is a sure loser. 

 

At the moment I am fully invested everywhere else so I will sit tight.  Worst case is that I make the money indirectly through my considerable FFh holding.

 

 

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Guest valueInv

Following on the smartphone, data service to consumers, I think this is a business that is rapidly commoditizing.  Look for smartphones that do everything an Iphone does in a year or two for well under $100 with no plan.  Google and Android have all but assured this.  The same will happen in the tablet space.  This does not bode well for Nokia or Rimm, or Apple, or HTC, or Samsung.  MSFT always recognized that the best business was software, not hardware.  That bodes better for Apple, Rim, and Google. 

Yeah, the facts definitely seem to bear out  ;):

 

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390443517104577574470875390872.html

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I think UCCMAL is right on the assumption that RIM is evolving into something different from what it has been on the past. In fact Thorsten Heins has stated as much. As I quoted in the other RIM thread:

 

"The new lineup uses technology from its 2010 acquisition of QNX Software Systems, which RIM bought... which is used in cars, nuclear plants and military drones. " 

"In Heins’s vision for RIM, the company will expand the scope of its devices beyond BlackBerry smartphones and PlayBook tablets into other areas of mobile computing and what he calls machine-to-machine communications. "  “Smartphones are a part of our business, but we’re looking way beyond this...”

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-08-13/rim-says-blackberry-10-will-soon-be-ready-for-licensing.html:

 

Everyone seems to be focusing on RIM’s past in predicting RIM’s future. Yet it seems that the future for RIM is in utilizing QNX in areas that have little or nothing to do with smartphones and tablets. They may well be working on technological breakthroughs that could lead the company to achieve the same level of success that they had in the phone business, but in entirely different areas.

 

Does anyone really think Prem Watsa is some idiot throwing good money after bad? He is well aware of what RIM is working on and sees the potential. Licensing the BB10 may well be an indication of RIM’s shifting focus. While phones are an important part of the business there may be much more to RIM.

 

Unfortunately it seems that many people are so caught up in the “my phone is better than yours” debate that they may be missing the real story with RIM

 

I have both RIM and FFH but am becoming tempted to add some more RIM.

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I dont think Prem is sentimental enough when it comes to business to plow money into something that is a sure loser. 

 

At the moment I am fully invested everywhere else so I will sit tight.  Worst case is that I make the money indirectly through my considerable FFh holding.

 

Does anyone really think Prem Watsa is some idiot throwing good money after bad? He is well aware of what RIM is working on and sees the potential.

 

I surely agree with Uccmal and cwericb on RIM and FFH.

 

giofranch

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Does anyone really think Prem Watsa is some idiot throwing good money after bad?

 

The old appeal to authority.  Prem is smart, Prem invested in RIMM, ergo RIMM is a good investment!  It's possible people can make a mistake.  I have no idea if he did or didn't here, but the fact that Prem made the investment means nothing to me.  The Matlin Patterson guys are pretty smart, right?  But they have taken a dump on Flagstar and continued to flush good money after bad on it.  See, it doesn't always work.  Smart guys can once in a blue moon make a mistake.

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Everyone seems to be focusing on RIM’s past in predicting RIM’s future. Yet it seems that the future for RIM is in utilizing QNX in areas that have little or nothing to do with smartphones and tablets. They may well be working on technological breakthroughs that could lead the company to achieve the same level of success that they had in the phone business, but in entirely different areas.

 

Does anyone really think Prem Watsa is some idiot throwing good money after bad? He is well aware of what RIM is working on and sees the potential. Licensing the BB10 may well be an indication of RIM’s shifting focus. While phones are an important part of the business there may be much more to RIM.

 

If licensing QNX as the #4 mobile smartphone platform and hoping it catches on in other areas is the plan then I think RIM bulls are a little crazy.  Transitioning from being a global leader in handsets and infrastructure to a niche OS developer is no small thing.  How the hell do you value that?  It may work out.  But, how to you know what the addressable market is or what kind of license fees you might be able to demand?  I'd guess they'd still be competing with android in that market anyway.  It is a huge roll of the dice.

 

Now, Prem may be smart enough and understand RIM well enough to know that the combination of QNX and the blackberry server business have enough value that current prices reflect a significant discount to intrinsic value.  But I don't think for a second that that was the vision when he was buying at $50 or $30 or $20.  Buying/holding at $8 on that kind of speculative outlook may make sense, but not if you're buying at $50.

 

In the end, I like Fairfax enough and respect track record for the guys at Hamblin Watsa enough, to keep holding Fairfax even if I don't understand or agree with their view on RIM.

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If licensing QNX as the #4 mobile smartphone platform and hoping it catches on in other areas is the plan then I think RIM bulls are a little crazy.  Transitioning from being a global leader in handsets and infrastructure to a niche OS developer is no small thing.  How the hell do you value that?  It may work out.  But, how to you know what the addressable market is or what kind of license fees you might be able to demand? I'd guess they'd still be competing with android in that market anyway.  It is a huge roll of the dice.

 

BB10 is a real time operating system, which makes it suitable for mission critical applications. Androids will be left to consumers market at this point.

 

BeerBaron

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I guess what I am suggesting is simply that Prem is in a position to know what RIM has on the drawing boards. Not only does it appear that he likes what he sees, but has enough confidence to increase Fairfax's position.

 

But people don't seem to grasp the fact that RIM may be moving well beyond the saturated smartphone market.

 

Just because the Blackberry name has lost its shine in some markets does not mean that RIM does not have other potentially successful ideas that may have absolutely nothing to do with the smartphone industry. It could be anything from military software to driverless car controls, perhaps it involves the nuclear industry who knows? They changed the landscape with the Blackberry, perhaps they can be as successful in their next endeavors and in the meantime maintain a decent grip on the smartphone/tablet industry in developing markets and elsewhere.

 

Of course it may not work out but isn't that the potential for nearly any investment? I just think that Prem, and Hamblin Watsa are shrewd investors that have have a certain advantage over those of us who speculate on the pros and cons of RIM's future. 

 

I too, doubt he ever envisioned that he would see RIM selling for eight bucks, but at eight bucks it could be a real bargain.

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