Guest 50centdollars Posted January 21, 2015 Posted January 21, 2015 http://www.bnn.ca/News/2015/1/21/Shadow-lenders-jump-into-mortgage-market-as-banks-clamp-down.aspx This is scary
Liberty Posted January 21, 2015 Author Posted January 21, 2015 http://www.bnn.ca/News/2015/1/21/Shadow-lenders-jump-into-mortgage-market-as-banks-clamp-down.aspx This is scary Yep. Ben Rabidoux has been ringing the alarm bell on those for a while. He's worth following on Twitter, he knows his stuff about Canadian RE.
LongHaul Posted January 21, 2015 Posted January 21, 2015 Actually I was interested in single family home cap rates or single unit tenant condos. Apartment building cap rates are generally higher. 5% is super low though even for multifamily.
augustabound Posted January 21, 2015 Posted January 21, 2015 Ben Rabidoux has been ringing the alarm bell on those for a while. He's worth following on Twitter, he knows his stuff about Canadian RE. I want to follow him, I really do. But I can't follow someone who posts dozens of times a day. Although this quote is pretty arrogant so maybe not following him won't be that hard. Since 2013 I've consistently said that the BoC's next move was more likely to be a cut than a hike. You're welcome, world
LongHaul Posted January 21, 2015 Posted January 21, 2015 Couple of interesting data points on real estate in Canada. Shiller data http://www.macleans.ca/economy/realestateeconomy/a-canadian-housing-chart-that-puts-the-bubble-in-perspective/ Canada price to rent - Economist http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart/2011/11/global-house-prices
moody202 Posted January 21, 2015 Posted January 21, 2015 http://www.bnn.ca/News/2015/1/21/Shadow-lenders-jump-into-mortgage-market-as-banks-clamp-down.aspx This is scary Nothing new. This happens in US also. In fact you can buy these loans online at sites like http://www.loanmls.com/content/buy-private-mortgages.html I don't understand the point how this is threat to the system as most of the lenders are individuals or small entities. Their collapse has very little impact on the system.
LesPaul Posted January 22, 2015 Posted January 22, 2015 http://www.bnn.ca/News/2015/1/21/Shadow-lenders-jump-into-mortgage-market-as-banks-clamp-down.aspx This is scary Nothing new. This happens in US also. In fact you can buy these loans online at sites like http://www.loanmls.com/content/buy-private-mortgages.html I don't understand the point how this is threat to the system as most of the lenders are individuals or small entities. Their collapse has very little impact on the system. I'm inclined to agree. The term 'Shadow Banking' even sounds like it was written to generate attention/worry. I know a few people personally who offer these private funds and appear to make a killing. On the other hand, I've heard stories about rather unsavoury characters (both lenders and borrowers) and deals that have gone very wrong. It's comforting that none of these mortgages are CMHC or Genworth/CG insured. I don't know enough to share why these borrowers don't just go to HCG, perhaps someone else here can describe that with greater knowledge. At the same time, I kind of cringe when I see a Toronto pawn broker offering mortgages on TV.
Matson125 Posted January 22, 2015 Posted January 22, 2015 Ben Rabidoux has been ringing the alarm bell on those for a while. He's worth following on Twitter, he knows his stuff about Canadian RE. I want to follow him, I really do. But I can't follow someone who posts dozens of times a day. Although this quote is pretty arrogant so maybe not following him won't be that hard. Since 2013 I've consistently said that the BoC's next move was more likely to be a cut than a hike. You're welcome, world +1 I unfollowed him as well, it was getting to be too much.
Liberty Posted January 22, 2015 Author Posted January 22, 2015 Ben Rabidoux has been ringing the alarm bell on those for a while. He's worth following on Twitter, he knows his stuff about Canadian RE. I want to follow him, I really do. But I can't follow someone who posts dozens of times a day. Although this quote is pretty arrogant so maybe not following him won't be that hard. Since 2013 I've consistently said that the BoC's next move was more likely to be a cut than a hike. You're welcome, world +1 I unfollowed him as well, it was getting to be too much. I never read him as arrogant. Those types of messages always sounded tongue in cheek to me. He posts a lot of RE stats and charts that I'm not finding elsewhere, so I'm quite happy to follow him. To each their own.
augustabound Posted January 22, 2015 Posted January 22, 2015 I never read him as arrogant. Those types of messages always sounded tongue in cheek to me. The message itself wasn't arrogant as much as the "You're Welcome World". Very Harry Longish. I read through a bunch of tweets last night and every now and then he's a bit arrogant IMO. His reply to David Baskin yesterday was a bit immature. The "seriously!" tweet. He's the president of his own advisory company and instead of debating the point of DB's tweet all he does is the high school reply, "seriously!" Don't get me wrong, his take on Canadian real estate seems solid, just some of his tweets rub me the wrong way. Hardcore value retweets the good stuff from him so I'm not missing out.
Liberty Posted January 22, 2015 Author Posted January 22, 2015 The "You're welcome world" is the part that I read as tongue in cheek. Maybe I have a hard time believe that anyone can write things like that non-ironically until they release an ebook with that title :)
augustabound Posted January 22, 2015 Posted January 22, 2015 The "You're welcome world" is the part that I read as tongue in cheek. Maybe I have a hard time believe that anyone can write things like that non-ironically until they release an ebook with that title :) Don't forget the $200 price tag. ;D
cwericb Posted January 22, 2015 Posted January 22, 2015 I believe that Harry's book is free now giving credence to the saying "Advice is worth what you pay for it" ?
augustabound Posted January 22, 2015 Posted January 22, 2015 I believe that Harry's book is free now giving credence to the saying "Advice is worth what you pay for it" ? I checked out of curiosity and didn't find it on Amazon.
cwericb Posted January 22, 2015 Posted January 22, 2015 As far as I can see Harry wrote two books - so far. One was 24 pages and the other 36 pages and I believe he was asking over $200 each which worked out to about $10 per page. Of course that may be a bargain considering it is billed as "The Most Powerful Trading System Ever Publicly Revealed". I didn't try downloading it but you might be able to download it here? http://collectingbooks.net/1559-you-re-welcome-planet-earth-the-most-powerful.html
beerbaron Posted January 22, 2015 Posted January 22, 2015 Still overpriced. :P The title is the best part of the book I heard. BeerBaron
peter1234 Posted January 23, 2015 Posted January 23, 2015 He had 3 books on amazon, but they all seem to be gone. ;D He seems to have 3 books on Amazon, 1 "expensive", 2 "cheap". ;) :) ;D http://www.amazon.com/Youre-Welcome-Planet-Earth-Convexity-ebook/dp/B00F43EHF2/ref=la_B00DC7EPJK_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1401389638&sr=1-1 http://www.amazon.com/Youre-Welcome-Planet-Earth-Powerful-ebook/dp/B00DBT66MI/ref=la_B00DC7EPJK_1_2? s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1401389638&sr=1-2 http://www.amazon.com/Youre-Welcome-Planet-Earth-INTEGRATING-ebook/dp/B00KKVO334/ref=la_B00DC7EPJK_1_3?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1401389638&sr=1-3
cwericb Posted January 23, 2015 Posted January 23, 2015 Probably sold out. However, you can still license his “least expensive strategy” beginning at just $900,000. http://seekingalpha.com/author/harry-long
mcliu Posted February 2, 2015 Posted February 2, 2015 http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/the-real-estate-beat/calgary-housing-market-hits-seven-year-low/article22749863/?cmpid=rss1
Liberty Posted February 5, 2015 Author Posted February 5, 2015 http://m.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/new-alarm-bells-ringing-over-household-debt/article22797037/?service=mobile “Canada had the second-biggest jump in household debt-to-income ratios of any country other than Greece between 2007 and the second quarter of 2014 […] Canada and Australia along with a number of countries in northern Europe “now have larger household debt burdens than existed in the U.S. or the U.K. at the peak of the credit bubble””
LongHaul Posted February 11, 2015 Posted February 11, 2015 Anyone know why Canada's home price bubble did not bust when the US went into the Great Recession? Seems like Canadian home prices dipped a little then came roaring back.
augustabound Posted February 11, 2015 Posted February 11, 2015 Anyone know why Canada's home price bubble did not bust when the US went into the Great Recession? Seems like Canadian home prices dipped a little then came roaring back. Wasn't the U.S.'s main problem sub-prime lending? We didn't have that here, or at least to the extreme as the U.S.
A_Hamilton Posted February 11, 2015 Posted February 11, 2015 Anyone know why Canada's home price bubble did not bust when the US went into the Great Recession? Seems like Canadian home prices dipped a little then came roaring back. Wasn't the U.S.'s main problem sub-prime lending? We didn't have that here, or at least to the extreme as the U.S. The only major economies on the globe that didn't collapse in 2008 were commodity driven (Canada and Australia) riding the China/ high oil price bubble or had a command economy (China). Canada was starting to collapse and then oil prices reversed course in a hurry. I'm not sure there is much Canada can do to avoid it from a policy perspective (in the near term, over 20 years maybe continued diversification away from commodities and banking), but I think if commodity weakness really takes hold the country is going to have a very nasty recession.
wisdom Posted February 11, 2015 Posted February 11, 2015 I concur with A_ Hamilton. The stimulus in China saved the day for Australia, Brazil and Canada. As China moves away from investment led growth it will be tough for these countries because all of them have real estate bubbles backed by higher personal debt levels than the US or UK back in 2007. The oil rigs had jobs that paid $120,000 to $300,000 for high school graduates. It is tough to earn those incomes in other industries and support the debt/lifestyle individuals may have taken on. For perspective - China was buying 50% of global production of several commodities at it's peak. It's tough for any other country to replace that kind of demand.
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now