typicalvalue Posted December 15, 2020 Posted December 15, 2020 pfds getting smashed at the moment. If Ackerman is right this is game over.
SnarkyPuppy Posted December 15, 2020 Posted December 15, 2020 Can you explain what "game over" entails if the NWS is ended and SPSA is written down? FNMAS trade at $8.75 ask right now (most liquid so least attractive). Let's say this is funded entirely by retained earnings over 10 years. An 11% CAGR to Par value after 10 years. Again I think the correct way of looking at this trade is and has always been- what is the long-term permanent capital loss that you can reasonably expect? And what is the upside?
muscleman Posted December 15, 2020 Posted December 15, 2020 pfds getting smashed at the moment. If Ackerman is right this is game over. My weak buy setup got nullified by the end of yesterday. Surprised to see the big gap down today. Trump has far more urgent things to worry about than releasing FnF, and if the Supreme Court can rule the Texas vs PA case like that, it can cover its eyes on FnF scandal as well.
SnarkyPuppy Posted December 15, 2020 Posted December 15, 2020 pfds getting smashed at the moment. If Ackerman is right this is game over. My weak buy setup got nullified by the end of yesterday. Surprised to see the big gap down today. Trump has far more urgent things to worry about than releasing FnF, and if the Supreme Court can rule the Texas vs PA case like that, it can cover its eyes on FnF scandal as well. Very strong analysis. Thanks for your contribution.
COBFInfinity Posted December 15, 2020 Posted December 15, 2020 pfds getting smashed at the moment. If Ackerman is right this is game over. My weak buy setup got nullified by the end of yesterday. Surprised to see the big gap down today. Trump has far more urgent things to worry about than releasing FnF, and if the Supreme Court can rule the Texas vs PA case like that, it can cover its eyes on FnF scandal as well. Lol, you show up after a long absence with a buy signal and support for a fascist coup. The next day after a big drop, you're look, "Just kidding - there was no buy signal. Still dig that fascist coup, though."
muscleman Posted December 15, 2020 Posted December 15, 2020 pfds getting smashed at the moment. If Ackerman is right this is game over. My weak buy setup got nullified by the end of yesterday. Surprised to see the big gap down today. Trump has far more urgent things to worry about than releasing FnF, and if the Supreme Court can rule the Texas vs PA case like that, it can cover its eyes on FnF scandal as well. Lol, you show up after a long absence with a buy signal and support for a fascist coup. The next day after a big drop, you're look, "Just kidding - there was no buy signal. Still dig that fascist coup, though." Please go back and read my prior post. I said I showed up again because after May 2019, I finally got another buy setup, but it is really weak and I am not taking it. You seem to be a Biden supporter. Is that true? I am surprised to see any Democrats believing in law and order for FnF while covering their eyes for all the lawless things that Obama has done over the years. ;)
muscleman Posted December 15, 2020 Posted December 15, 2020 pfds getting smashed at the moment. If Ackerman is right this is game over. My weak buy setup got nullified by the end of yesterday. Surprised to see the big gap down today. Trump has far more urgent things to worry about than releasing FnF, and if the Supreme Court can rule the Texas vs PA case like that, it can cover its eyes on FnF scandal as well. Very strong analysis. Thanks for your contribution. You are welcome. I went over a lot of CoBF threads over the years and found it intriguing that the longer the threads, the less likelihood that the idea works out. Then I told myself that my analysis has to be short on every investment. I first have to get a buy setup on my chart, and then I have to have a short but strong thesis on the fundamentals. If I can't keep it short, I pass.
SnarkyPuppy Posted December 15, 2020 Posted December 15, 2020 pfds getting smashed at the moment. If Ackerman is right this is game over. My weak buy setup got nullified by the end of yesterday. Surprised to see the big gap down today. Trump has far more urgent things to worry about than releasing FnF, and if the Supreme Court can rule the Texas vs PA case like that, it can cover its eyes on FnF scandal as well. Lol, you show up after a long absence with a buy signal and support for a fascist coup. The next day after a big drop, you're look, "Just kidding - there was no buy signal. Still dig that fascist coup, though." Please go back and read my prior post. I said I showed up again because after May 2019, I finally got another buy setup, but it is really weak and I am not taking it. You seem to be a Biden supporter. Is that true? I am surprised to see any Democrats believing in law and order for FnF while covering their eyes for all the lawless things that Obama has done over the years. ;) "You seem to be a Biden supporter". People who think in these terms (sadly, a growing % of the population) have actual brain damage. Get out of this thread and argue about your political team elsewhere- nobody cares.
muscleman Posted December 15, 2020 Posted December 15, 2020 pfds getting smashed at the moment. If Ackerman is right this is game over. My weak buy setup got nullified by the end of yesterday. Surprised to see the big gap down today. Trump has far more urgent things to worry about than releasing FnF, and if the Supreme Court can rule the Texas vs PA case like that, it can cover its eyes on FnF scandal as well. Lol, you show up after a long absence with a buy signal and support for a fascist coup. The next day after a big drop, you're look, "Just kidding - there was no buy signal. Still dig that fascist coup, though." Please go back and read my prior post. I said I showed up again because after May 2019, I finally got another buy setup, but it is really weak and I am not taking it. You seem to be a Biden supporter. Is that true? I am surprised to see any Democrats believing in law and order for FnF while covering their eyes for all the lawless things that Obama has done over the years. ;) "You seem to be a Biden supporter". People who think in these terms (sadly, a growing % of the population) have actual brain damage. Get out of this thread and argue about your political team elsewhere- nobody cares. wow.... That's rude and arrogant. ;D
SnarkyPuppy Posted December 15, 2020 Posted December 15, 2020 pfds getting smashed at the moment. If Ackerman is right this is game over. My weak buy setup got nullified by the end of yesterday. Surprised to see the big gap down today. Trump has far more urgent things to worry about than releasing FnF, and if the Supreme Court can rule the Texas vs PA case like that, it can cover its eyes on FnF scandal as well. Lol, you show up after a long absence with a buy signal and support for a fascist coup. The next day after a big drop, you're look, "Just kidding - there was no buy signal. Still dig that fascist coup, though." Please go back and read my prior post. I said I showed up again because after May 2019, I finally got another buy setup, but it is really weak and I am not taking it. You seem to be a Biden supporter. Is that true? I am surprised to see any Democrats believing in law and order for FnF while covering their eyes for all the lawless things that Obama has done over the years. ;) "You seem to be a Biden supporter". People who think in these terms (sadly, a growing % of the population) have actual brain damage. Get out of this thread and argue about your political team elsewhere- nobody cares. wow.... That's rude and arrogant. ;D Irrelevant, if correct.
Luke 532 Posted December 15, 2020 Posted December 15, 2020 New by the Wall Street Journal (Mr. Ackerman) https://www.wsj.com/articles/fannie-freddie-privatization-decisions-likely-to-be-left-to-biden-administration-11608028200 Seems like we are getting lots of inputs on both sides. See Bloomberg Intelligence's take attached...
typicalvalue Posted December 15, 2020 Posted December 15, 2020 Having read more patiently Ackerman's article this a deliberated piece of misinformation. It just uses Mnuchin past interview sentences that are more dubious on lame duck action and skips like "changes that he would likely make" regarding PSPA. So it's just an opinion that adds no new info to the table, and has no direct source regarding the headline. How easy is to manipulate markets when you have voice...
typicalvalue Posted December 15, 2020 Posted December 15, 2020 New by the Wall Street Journal (Mr. Ackerman) https://www.wsj.com/articles/fannie-freddie-privatization-decisions-likely-to-be-left-to-biden-administration-11608028200 Seems like we are getting lots of inputs on both sides. See Bloomberg Intelligence's take attached... thanks Luke! Always helping :)
COBFInfinity Posted December 15, 2020 Posted December 15, 2020 pfds getting smashed at the moment. If Ackerman is right this is game over. My weak buy setup got nullified by the end of yesterday. Surprised to see the big gap down today. Trump has far more urgent things to worry about than releasing FnF, and if the Supreme Court can rule the Texas vs PA case like that, it can cover its eyes on FnF scandal as well. Lol, you show up after a long absence with a buy signal and support for a fascist coup. The next day after a big drop, you're look, "Just kidding - there was no buy signal. Still dig that fascist coup, though." Please go back and read my prior post. I said I showed up again because after May 2019, I finally got another buy setup, but it is really weak and I am not taking it. You seem to be a Biden supporter. Is that true? I am surprised to see any Democrats believing in law and order for FnF while covering their eyes for all the lawless things that Obama has done over the years. ;) I oppose the theft of the Net Worth Sweep AND I oppose the acts of a career criminal fascist. This is only hard to comprehend if you support the career criminal fascist.
Midas79 Posted December 15, 2020 Posted December 15, 2020 New by the Wall Street Journal (Mr. Ackerman) https://www.wsj.com/articles/fannie-freddie-privatization-decisions-likely-to-be-left-to-biden-administration-11608028200 Seems like we are getting lots of inputs on both sides. See Bloomberg Intelligence's take attached... Actual intelligence from Bloomberg! (tongue in cheek there, Ben Elliott has been excellent)
Gregmal Posted December 15, 2020 Posted December 15, 2020 pfds getting smashed at the moment. If Ackerman is right this is game over. My weak buy setup got nullified by the end of yesterday. Surprised to see the big gap down today. Trump has far more urgent things to worry about than releasing FnF, and if the Supreme Court can rule the Texas vs PA case like that, it can cover its eyes on FnF scandal as well. Lol, you show up after a long absence with a buy signal and support for a fascist coup. The next day after a big drop, you're look, "Just kidding - there was no buy signal. Still dig that fascist coup, though." Please go back and read my prior post. I said I showed up again because after May 2019, I finally got another buy setup, but it is really weak and I am not taking it. You seem to be a Biden supporter. Is that true? I am surprised to see any Democrats believing in law and order for FnF while covering their eyes for all the lawless things that Obama has done over the years. ;) I oppose the theft of the Net Worth Sweep AND I oppose the acts of a career criminal fascist. This is only hard to comprehend if you support the career criminal fascist. The question he asked is a simple yes or no....
Midas79 Posted December 15, 2020 Posted December 15, 2020 As for the WSJ article, it seems to me that the entire conclusion that Mnuchin won't act before inauguration is based on the quote "In a Wall Street Journal interview, Mnuchin said he’s not going to pursue any actions that put taxpayers at risk or limit consumers’ access to home loans." That conclusion cannot be logically drawn from the quoted premise. Amending the PSPAs to eliminate the NWS and seniors neither puts taxpayers at risk nor limits access to home loans. Taxpayers would actually be more protected because those two things are necessary to raise third-party capital, and as long as the backstop remains in place access to home loans shouldn't be any different than it is now.
Luke 532 Posted December 15, 2020 Posted December 15, 2020 As for the WSJ article, it seems to me that the entire conclusion that Mnuchin won't act before inauguration is based on the quote "In a Wall Street Journal interview, Mnuchin said he’s not going to pursue any actions that put taxpayers at risk or limit consumers’ access to home loans." That conclusion cannot be logically drawn from the quoted premise. Amending the PSPAs to eliminate the NWS and seniors neither puts taxpayers at risk nor limits access to home loans. Taxpayers would actually be more protected because those two things are necessary to raise third-party capital, and as long as the backstop remains in place access to home loans shouldn't be any different than it is now. +1
undervalued Posted December 15, 2020 Posted December 15, 2020 Ok here is my biased opinion.. Nothing has changed on what Mnuchin/Calabria might do before he left (Like Luke/Midas mentioned). Might be a good time to add more if you aren't fully allocated.
muscleman Posted December 15, 2020 Posted December 15, 2020 Ok here is my biased opinion.. Nothing has changed on what Mnuchin/Calabria might do before he left. And the answer is that nothing will be done before they leave. They have to think about their future as they leave the office. They could be offered highly paid jobs like the other "revolving door" politicians who implemented the NWS. Of course if that's not enough incentive, what just happened to Brian Kemp's daughter's bf could be enough incentive.
undervalued Posted December 15, 2020 Posted December 15, 2020 Ok here is my biased opinion.. Nothing has changed on what Mnuchin/Calabria might do before he left. And the answer is that nothing will be done before they leave. They have to think about their future as they leave the office. They could be offered highly paid jobs like the other "revolving door" politicians who implemented the NWS. Of course if that's not enough incentive, what just happened to Brian Kemp's daughter's bf could be enough incentive. I think that's exactly what we're betting on - that they will do something before they leave.
investorG Posted December 15, 2020 Posted December 15, 2020 Question for some smart poster: ACG's timeline (under biden win) predicts (hopes) for PSPA amendment before jan20. but the window for consent order goes through June -- if Tsy is required as everyone is now saying, how do they get there - assume Yellen is on board? or some other more realistic option?
TwoCitiesCapital Posted December 15, 2020 Posted December 15, 2020 As for the WSJ article, it seems to me that the entire conclusion that Mnuchin won't act before inauguration is based on the quote "In a Wall Street Journal interview, Mnuchin said he’s not going to pursue any actions that put taxpayers at risk or limit consumers’ access to home loans." That conclusion cannot be logically drawn from the quoted premise. Amending the PSPAs to eliminate the NWS and seniors neither puts taxpayers at risk nor limits access to home loans. Taxpayers would actually be more protected because those two things are necessary to raise third-party capital, and as long as the backstop remains in place access to home loans shouldn't be any different than it is now. This was my read as well, buy Schwab won't let me submit orders to buy more :/
beaufort Posted December 15, 2020 Posted December 15, 2020 My read is that we get a consent decree if the relevant target capital is met. For example, Treasury contracts with FHFA for consent decree if X dollars are raised/retained by Y date. Then the terms of the contract have been met and the GSEs are out on consent decree. If the terms are not met, GSEs are not out. If I am right, perhaps the GSEs hit the relevant capital target with a private placement and get out by the inauguration. If not, my speculation is there will still be time after that to perform under the contract. I have been trying to buy more this morning but I am having difficulty getting my bid.
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