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Viking

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Google Docs is completely down for me right now as well.

 

Interesting.  Working fine for me, fwiw.

 

This does highlight one reason (of several) why I'm skeptical of widespread use of cloud computing for anything of real importance.  Back-ups and low level personal use? Sure.  Anything more important than a tracking spreadsheet?  No way.

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  • 1 month later...

Given the board's level of interest in MSFT and the future of computing, I'm surprised that the unveiling of Windows 8 last week didn't start any discussion here.

 

Galen Gruman -- Watch out, Apple: Windows 8 could trump the iPad

http://www.infoworld.com/d/mobile-technology/watch-out-apple-windows-8-could-trump-the-ipad-172971

 

Cnet -- Windows 8: Microsoft's Swiss Army knife vision

http://news.cnet.com/8301-10805_3-20106971-75/windows-8-microsofts-swiss-army-knife-vision

 

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i personally can't wait for win8, i actually might buy one of the varies pc tablet hardware out there and install win8 dev edition that is out right now

 

i honestly don't see why i would need a pc and a tablet in the future (via how apple is right now). think pc and tablet will merge, which is what win8 is all about

 

reminds me when PDA and cellphone were 2 different devices, now we call then smartphones

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i personally can't wait for win8, i actually might buy one of the varies pc tablet hardware out there and install win8 dev edition that is out right now

 

i honestly don't see why i would need a pc and a tablet in the future (via how apple is right now). think pc and tablet will merge, which is what win8 is all about

 

reminds me when PDA and cellphone were 2 different devices, now we call then smartphones

 

I agree. I think this is the future.

 

http://www.asus.com/Eee/Eee_Pad/Eee_Pad_Transformer_TF101/

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i personally can't wait for win8, i actually might buy one of the varies pc tablet hardware out there and install win8 dev edition that is out right now

 

i honestly don't see why i would need a pc and a tablet in the future (via how apple is right now). think pc and tablet will merge, which is what win8 is all about

 

reminds me when PDA and cellphone were 2 different devices, now we call then smartphones

 

I agree. I think this is the future.

 

http://www.asus.com/Eee/Eee_Pad/Eee_Pad_Transformer_TF101/

 

Exactly. For practical use in a working environnement the keyboard without a mouse and little screen is unhandy but that can easily be solved. Why not install simple 3th party stations including a keyboard (with integrated projector/beamer (?) for a bigger screen when installed at your desk) and mouse where the user/employee simply has to attach his "tablet" into a frame. There are enormous advantages for many companies and individuals in the mobility this alternative offers and I don't see why desktops would remain the preferred medium of use.

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Great read from Cringely today on MSFT, Ballmer and the tablet strategy

 

http://www.cringely.com/2011/09/ballmers-last-stand/

 

I opened a position in MSFT during the nadir of the August mini-meltdown, and I'm a linux, open source guy who purged all vestiges of windows from my house years ago (and barely tolerate it at my company....and that's just to be able to test our website through it)

 

Parsad said it pretty succinctly (to paraphrase him) -> they're making more money per share and returning more of it to shareholders now, when nobody wants them than they ever did when everybody wanted them.

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http://www.geekwire.com/2011/casio-paying-microsoft-linux-patent-deal

"Casio paying Microsoft to use Linux in new patent deal"

 

So, the milking of the cash cows continues.

 

What I dont get about the stock price is its stagnation over so many years. They just declared the dividend to go up by 25%, it's not that high to begin with.  What could be a real catalyst?

 

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I find it absolutely fascinating that Microsoft haven't put out some update for Windows 7 that makes Skype work without either shutting off the Windows firewall completely (which I do) or making exceptions (which I had to to for my parents). Surely most Skype users just have no freakin' clue what's going on when they're on a new computer and can't get Skype working? Maybe I missed something but this seems to be so very basic for MS to do when integrating Skype.

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They just declared the dividend to go up by 25%, it's not that high to begin with. 

 

You need to watch the share count to calculate the real dividend.

 

Over the 12 months period June 2010 to June 2011, they reduced the share count enough where you can sell 3.75% of your holdings to bring it back in line with your % ownership at the start of that 12 month period.  That was pretty typical of most years since 2005, with the exception of 6/2009-6/2010.

 

Add in the 2.5% dividend to your 3.75% share-buyback-laundered-dividend and you have an income of 6.25%.  That's the same dividend you would have received if they had paid cash dividend instead of a buyback, but the buyback gives you tax advantages (unless you are Buffett who loses on corporate tax rules).

 

Over the following 12 months (with new dividend increase) it will now be 6.875% income if they keep up the share count reduction.  That's like getting a 10% raise.

 

It's not that bad.

 

And if you aren't sitting on a capital gain, then the 3.75% dividend from the share buyback is entirely tax free!  Better, you might even get a tax deduction if you are below cost basis!  Put that in your pipe and smoke it Obama!

 

Bill Gates Says Tax The Rich!  (The buybacks are probably Ballmer's idea, as he opposes the rich tax)

http://www.businessinsider.com/bill-gates-state-income-tax-2010-9

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They just declared the dividend to go up by 25%, it's not that high to begin with. 

 

You need to watch the share count to calculate the real dividend.

 

Yes sir!

 

I read your full post four times and contemplated it. Maybe that's one of the reasons? It's more difficult to grasp than if they were doing less stock buy back and just declaring they are doubling the dividend or something. That should get some attention.  Then again, it took me four readings of your post and farther pondering so perhaps I should not be thinking about it :)

 

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They just declared the dividend to go up by 25%, it's not that high to begin with. 

 

You need to watch the share count to calculate the real dividend.

 

Yes sir!

 

I read your full post four times and contemplated it. Maybe that's one of the reasons? It's more difficult to grasp than if they were doing less stock buy back and just declaring they are doubling the dividend or something. That should get some attention.  Then again, it took me four readings of your post and farther pondering so perhaps I should not be thinking about it :)

 

Reading about all the years that MSFT has gone nowhere, the last thing shareholders need is a tax on something that can be had tax-free (for the people who bought in this price range).  Fortunately the dividend tax is still relatively low. 

 

Should Obama (or his successor) succeed in the "Buffett tax", I hope companies stop paying dividends altogether and just buy shares back.  Then I'll have the last laugh, because it really will be a tax... on Buffett!!!  He would pay 35% capital gains tax if he wants his laundered-dividend instead of the 5% - 10.5% dividend tax he pays on cash dividend distributions (most of his money sits in Berkshire).  I have a very strong suspicion that this is the real reason why he has been so vocal over the years about companies only buying shares back when severely undervalued.  For his own tax reasons (or acting as a fiduciary for Berkshire shareholders).  Mathematically he shouldn't care all that much otherwise.

 

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  • 4 weeks later...

Fascinating two part story by CNET about Microsoft's Courier tablet project.

 

The inside story of how Microsoft killed its Courier tablet

http://news.cnet.com/8301-10805_3-20128013-75/the-inside-story-of-how-microsoft-killed-its-courier-tablet/

 

How Windows 8 KO'd the innovative Courier tablet

http://news.cnet.com/8301-10805_3-20128045-75/how-windows-8-kod-the-innovative-courier-tablet/

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iPhone 8 (Gaming Console) Could Replace Xbox 360 by 2015! Future of Smartphones

 

http://hitechanalogy.com/iphone-8-gaming-console-replace-xbox-360-2015-future-smartphones/

 

Your Next Game Console Could Be … the iPhone 8?

 

http://allthingsd.com/20110805/your-next-game-console-could-be-the-iphone-8/?mod=tweet

 

I'm sure Microsoft will turn the XBox into the next-gen device and crush the iphone leaving Steve Job to rest in piece, or is it roll over here comes Microsoft!

 

It won't happen.

 

In order to put the hardware equivalent of XBox-360 into the iPhone, the transistor size would need to also be reduced 10 times. Current best IC technologies use 30nm and the limit is about 16nm. Passed 16nm the transistors stop being transistors. Which means ICs can be reduced by 2x and then no more raw CPU power. It's going to be tweaking of bits and pieces but Moore's law won't apply anymore.

 

It the same thing with SSD, it won't replace HDD for raw storage because of the same physical law. It's funny because people believe in gravity but not that transistors size could stop shrinking... go figure!

 

BeerBaron

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When you can't shrink transistors anymore, you can start to stack them in 3D rather than in a 2D plane. They're already working on this.

 

They are somewhat doing it already, as they are stacking layers over layers on a wafer. Of course, not as efficient as a real 3D.

I'm very doubtfull about Moore's law going forward, first it was the MHz that reached a plateau, soon the transistor count and after that the treatment capacity. 50 years of a law being proven right does not make it true for the next 50 years.

 

I would rather bet on the games being held on the phone and the XBox being some kind of post processor, giving the raw CPU power needed. Maybe even TVs will come out with the XBox compatible input where all you would do is plug and play.

 

But all the CPU power on the phone by 2015...nah.

 

BeerBaron

 

 

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It won't happen.

 

In order to put the hardware equivalent of XBox-360 into the iPhone, the transistor size would need to also be reduced 10 times. Current best IC technologies use 30nm and the limit is about 16nm. Passed 16nm the transistors stop being transistors. Which means ICs can be reduced by 2x and then no more raw CPU power. It's going to be tweaking of bits and pieces but Moore's law won't apply anymore.

 

BeerBaron

No doubt transistor feature sizes will hit the wall at some point, but the limit is probably well below 16nm. Intel has plans to introduce 14nm chips in 2013 and 10nm chips in 2015: http://news.softpedia.com/news/Intel-Technology-Roadmap-First-14nm-chips-in-2013-10nm-in-2015-198612.shtml. Feature size shrinkage plus 3D technology should keep Moore's law going for a while yet.

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