whatstheofficerproblem Posted January 25 Posted January 25 Ok, I think we have enough momentum to keep this going. Do not worry, I'm not raising capital. But as a fun exercise, I'm going to run a play pretend fund called Tegridy Value. Anyone have recommendations for paper portfolio platform? Going to post about positions etc here including quarterly letters. The fee structure will be 1-20. Number of positions will be capped at 10. Mandate is not restricted to US equities or any single sector.
Luke Posted January 25 Posted January 25 Followed - i recommend using Sharesight because free version caps out at 10 positions max!
UK Posted January 25 Posted January 25 (edited) 9 hours ago, whatstheofficerproblem said: Ok, I think we have enough momentum to keep this going. Do not worry, I'm not raising capital. But as a fun exercise, I'm going to run a play pretend fund called Tegridy Value. Anyone have recommendations for paper portfolio platform? Going to post about positions etc here including quarterly letters. The fee structure will be 1-20. Number of positions will be capped at 10. Mandate is not restricted to US equities or any single sector. Not sure I undersand the idea correctly, but maybe it would be possible to start start this as some separate account on IBKR or wherever with a small, but real money? This to a degree could be at least somewhat more provable/verifiable? Edited January 25 by UK
whatstheofficerproblem Posted January 25 Author Posted January 25 Thank you. Please find the attached document. Tegridy Inception Letter.pdf
gfp Posted January 25 Posted January 25 Not even 1 bp of cash! My man! Sounds like someone reads Irrational Analysis blog (one of my favorites, love that guy's style) https://irrationalanalysis.substack.com/p/intels-agentic-dumpster-fire
whatstheofficerproblem Posted January 25 Author Posted January 25 4 minutes ago, gfp said: Sounds like someone reads Irrational Analysis blog (one of my favorites, love that guy's style) 100%. One of the best there is. We were expecting the call to be a dumpster fire anyways. Have been long AMD for a year at this point, so naturally became the defacto CPU shortage bet. 1600 bps of Prem's cash .
LC Posted January 26 Posted January 26 I think you need to approach Matt & Trey to invest. Just tell them it'll be the opposite of Casa Bonita!
UK Posted January 26 Posted January 26 5 hours ago, whatstheofficerproblem said: Thank you. Please find the attached document. Tegridy Inception Letter.pdf 2.25 MB · 37 downloads Cool!:)
whatstheofficerproblem Posted January 26 Author Posted January 26 2 hours ago, LC said: I think you need to approach Matt & Trey to invest. Just tell them it'll be the opposite of Casa Bonita! Why not . I'm very open to it, South Park helped me learn about this country when Boston Legal sold me the American dream. If anyone here knows Matt & Trey, put us in touch.
moatrep Posted January 26 Posted January 26 (edited) I am looking at both LQDA and CVRX. Thanks for the post, it help me find this new ideas. Just trying to understand why you got more weighting in LQDA in comparison to CVRX. Is there more uncertainty in your opinion? Thanks Also since I saw your post where you were considering making CVRX half of your portfolio after the lawsit ends with LQDA. Also how many companies in the pharma sector have you analysed to find this ones? I usually pass the page when I see one hahah so I got curious. Thanks Edited January 26 by moatrep
whatstheofficerproblem Posted January 26 Author Posted January 26 3 minutes ago, moatrep said: Just trying to understand why you got more weighting in LQDA in comparison to CVRX. Is there more uncertainty in your opinion? Thanks Biotech in general is very volatile. CVRx more so as it is a small cap and can move on little volume. The base distinction comes down to this, if the lawsuit goes our way, LQDA is a 3.5-4x by YE. That alone will drive a ~100% gain in the portfolio, CVRX is maybe a 2-3x from here plus the runway for this company is wide. They need to prove their story, payors take time to update and then their study will run for 3-4 years. There will be more opportunities to buy CVRx, maybe not for as cheap as $5, but cheap enough. LQDA on the other hand will hockey stick. If the suit goes our way, I plan on rotating more money into the company as I wouldn't want to let go of 'free money'. Factor is also an issue, drawdown on LQDA will likely only happen if the suit goes against the company whereas CVRx much more volatile and I do not know if it'll start selling off again once news of the trial starts to get jaded at which point I would buy more of it.
whatstheofficerproblem Posted January 26 Author Posted January 26 All this and I've been following LQDA for 3+ years now and know the mgmt, while CVRX is still a relatively newer name.
whatstheofficerproblem Posted January 26 Author Posted January 26 1 minute ago, Longnose said: you did it Tegrity value it is! Yep, didn't want to overthink on a name for a trial fund. Also helps with my anonymity though some of the folks who have a ton of back on forth with me on here know my identity.
gfp Posted January 26 Posted January 26 How are you going to handle trade reporting for this "fund" ? Are you permitted to go above 100% invested since there is zero cash at inception? Performance tracking live on any website?
whatstheofficerproblem Posted January 26 Author Posted January 26 (edited) 8 minutes ago, gfp said: How are you going to handle trade reporting for this "fund" ? I have this on sharesight, part of the reason there is no cash is it wouldn't let me add cash. I'm gonna post the reports here every month with letter every Q. Edited January 26 by whatstheofficerproblem
Luke Posted January 26 Posted January 26 1 hour ago, whatstheofficerproblem said: I have this on sharesight, part of the reason there is no cash is it wouldn't let me add cash. I'm gonna post the reports here every month with letter every Q. Looking forward to read your letters.
whatstheofficerproblem Posted January 27 Author Posted January 27 (edited) I decreased the SNDK position considerably, didn't want to go into earnings with it. SNDK model highly levered to prices, even if you double Q1 which rest of the year doing 20%s will still get us to a quarterly run-rate EPS runrate above $25. SNDK's case in particular mixshift to eSSD has compounding effects but I'd rather buy more after call. JPM was pumping Kioxia the other day saying they had more market share than SNDK. Edited January 27 by whatstheofficerproblem
whatstheofficerproblem Posted January 29 Author Posted January 29 SNDK still 7% of the portfolio after reduction. EPS est for 2027 tightened to $80-100. Very bullish channel checks into 2028. Will add tomorrow.
Spekulatius Posted January 31 Posted January 31 I think an IBKR paper trading account would be an easier way. Costs nothing. I do think the accompanying funds letter is helpful.
whatstheofficerproblem Posted February 1 Author Posted February 1 I ultimately did not pull the trigger on more SNDK Friday because I knew a better opportunity would arrive, I think a good amount of the price action on Friday was WDC selling part of their stake or entirety of it. Won't know until & unless they file which would be 45 days. It is still very cheap, I don't think it's going any lower after Jensen's comments a few hours ago.
whatstheofficerproblem Posted February 1 Author Posted February 1 Another component of SNDK's price action was degrossing from some pods. Momo names got slammed Friday & SNDK's correlation was 1. Risk police at pods would have never stood for that, the motto there is to sell first and ask questions later. We saw much of the same with Unity, 25% based on a fake tweet. Like I said in the inception letter, investors with duration will continue to win in a market dominated by quick money traders. This could be hard on the shorting end of things, but I don't plan on shorting names yet. Will always be open to shorting MRNA, but to short other stocks will require a ton of due diligence and next thing you know some pod is chasing it higher.
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