Fairfax 2026

[SafetyinNumbers]

1 hour ago, yesman182 said:

Does that change how you feel about owning this on margin?  I think you said in the past you own some on margin. If you previous thought the price would rise with strong ROE and now you think it will take hard market, it seems like less reason to own on margin, since the gains could be years away even if the ROE holds up like we expect. I don’t use margin, so I’m just curious if using margin changes your thinking at all. I understand long term we are both think the stock will meet your return hurdle. 

No. I don’t think the multiple will drop below 1x and BVPS is still growing 15-25% a year. 

[Junior R]

8 minutes ago, Jaygo said:

 

I'm one Canadian who rationally or irrationally likes dividends. They are very tax efficient in Canada. The div tax credit alone is worth it for margined investments. 

 

Borrow and expense the interest. Take dividend and spend, then get tax credit at the end. Very effective for reducing taxes while have some walking around money. 

 

 

What are your fav Canadian DIV stocks

[Jaygo]

Topaz, EIC, Sobo, and NA but I usually just keep a large slug of XEI since it kind of acts like a dogs of the TSX. 

 

I borrowed to buy FFH, Strathcona, Topaz, Aecon, Sobo and Exchange income Corp and its been a wonderful experience. 

 

The tax treatment is really amazing as long as you have the stomach to ride it out and don't buy at 50x 

 

a lot of these have gone up very considerably so the yields are not great anymore. 

[gfp]

1 hour ago, thowed said:

The funny thing about the recent griping from a certain member is that today, while QQQ is down over 4%, FFH is up. 

 

Has been a wonderful day to have some of my losses offset.

 

funny day

 

Berkshire up

Fairfax up

Fairfax India up

Constellation Software up

Insurance brokers up

Boston Omaha up

 

[Hektor]

8 hours ago, 73 Reds said:

Even on a Board like this some people forget that stocks are partnership interests in businesses and not pieces of paper with ticker symbols attached.  The beauty is there is a perpetual offer to buy your interest and you have an ongoing opportunity to add to your ownership interest. 

+1

[mengan]

Fairfax Files Early Warning Report in Respect of Blue Ant Media
TORONTO, June 05, 2026 – Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited (“Fairfax”) (TSX: FFH and FFH.U) announced today that it has filed an early warning report (the “Early Warning Report”) under National Instrument 62-103 – The Early Warning System and Related Take-Over Bid and Insider Reporting Issues in connection with its holdings of subordinate voting shares (“Subordinate Voting Shares”) of Blue Ant Media Corporation (TSX: BAMI) (“Blue Ant” or the “Corporation”).

 

https://www.fairfax.ca/press-releases/fairfax-files-early-warning-report-in-respect-of-blue-ant-media/

 

Not consequential.

[SafetyinNumbers]

17 minutes ago, mengan said:

Fairfax Files Early Warning Report in Respect of Blue Ant Media
TORONTO, June 05, 2026 – Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited (“Fairfax”) (TSX: FFH and FFH.U) announced today that it has filed an early warning report (the “Early Warning Report”) under National Instrument 62-103 – The Early Warning System and Related Take-Over Bid and Insider Reporting Issues in connection with its holdings of subordinate voting shares (“Subordinate Voting Shares”) of Blue Ant Media Corporation (TSX: BAMI) (“Blue Ant” or the “Corporation”).

 

https://www.fairfax.ca/press-releases/fairfax-files-early-warning-report-in-respect-of-blue-ant-media/

 

Not consequential.

Trading below where they crossed stock last week, FWIW.

[Spekulatius]

On 6/4/2026 at 12:41 AM, Parsad said:

 

Even during the Great Depression after the Crash of 1929...if you continued to average down, or sell stocks to buy even cheaper ones, you came out well ahead over time...even over the ensuing 2-3 years.

 

If you stood pat, the recovery took a lot longer.  If you sold, you crystallized your losses.  If you were leveraged and/or on margin...odds are you were broke.  But averaging down worked as markets slowly recovered.

 

So if you are worried about the next 5 years or so...make sure you have some cash and live at or below your means.  If the markets or FFH stays low for a period of time, average down to cheaper valuations in other stocks or even FFH as the P/E compresses further.  

 

Cheers!

Yes,  but where does the money come from to average down in the Great Depression?

[Spekulatius]

2 hours ago, SafetyinNumbers said:

No. I don’t think the multiple will drop below 1x and BVPS is still growing 15-25% a year. 

I don’t think FFH‘s book value will grow by 15% every year either. If we have learned one thing with FFH in particular is that things don’t move in a straight line. i sm fairly sure that FFH will trade below book value again, but not sure when. Almost certainly in the next 10 years and likely the next 5.

 

I think FFH is a decent bargain here, but insurance means catastrophes and soft market happen and both will put pressure on multiples.

 

I still have my ~$450 cost basis shares to remind me where we are coming from just a few years ago. 

Edited 3 hours ago by Spekulatius

[SafetyinNumbers]

58 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

I don’t think FFH‘s book value will grow by 15% every year either.

 My 15-25% estimate is a CAGR over the next 5 years. Hard to call any twelve month period. 
 

1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

sm fairly sure that FFH will trade below book value again, but not sure when. Almost certainly in the next 10 years and likely the next 5.

How many shares do you think will be bought back during the next 10 years and next 5 years, respectively?

 

1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

If we have learned one thing with FFH in particular is that things don’t move in a straight line.

Are you referring to BVPS growth or stock price or both? What’s your outlook for BVPS growth over the next 5 years? 

[Xerxes]

Corner of Goldman Sachs, Berkshire and Fairfax 

 

Cherry picking March 30, 2020

Regardless of the cherry picking, Solomon tenure and moving away from a heavy balance sheet has been a blockbuster 

 

[Spekulatius]

25 minutes ago, SafetyinNumbers said:

Are you referring to BVPS growth or stock price or both? What’s your outlook for BVPS growth over the next 5 years? 

I expect a soft insurance market for much of the time  and a lumpy ~10% book value growth.

 

The buyback is a function of the ROE. I expect them to close the TRS in the next 5 years which will consume some capital. My best guess is that they will buy back a low single digit percentage  every year, maybe 2-3% of of outstanding every yearly if things  go OK. The stock price will spent much of time between 1-1.3x Book. I don’t think we will see much multiple expansion in a soft market.

 

If the insurance market goes hard again, we have upside from above.

[Junior R]

13 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

Corner of Goldman Sachs, Berkshire and Fairfax 

 

Cherry picking March 30, 2020

Regardless of the cherry picking, Solomon tenure and moving away from a heavy balance sheet has been a blockbuster 

 

wow didn't realize GS gains

[Junior R]

once has to remember the reason why FFH traded under bvps in the past was due to the hedges , cat rate and investments ...right now there in another ball game hard to see a low P/B...if anything the party is just getting started there are so many hidden gems inside FFH that this could easily triple in next 5 years