Fairfax 3.0

[Redskin212]

Dazel,

 

I love your sarcasm!

YTD performance of 27-28%, just a plain yawner 

[Dazel]

The interest rate drop has had investors recalculating interest income in insurance companies. I see this reason for the slow performance as of late…this was what I expected. Did Bradstreet lengthen duration? I hope so.

[yesman182]

37 minutes ago, Dazel said:

The interest rate drop has had investors recalculating interest income in insurance companies. I see this reason for the slow performance as of late…this was what I expected. Did Bradstreet lengthen duration? I hope so.

Last quarter they were at like 2.4 years, right? What are you hoping they moved to 3 year? 4?

[Parsad]

On 7/29/2025 at 11:44 PM, Haryana said:

Everyone knows about Ben and Christine. Does anyone know who is his third child? 

 

Stephanie.  Cheers!

[Parsad]

28 minutes ago, Haryana said:

Good to know about Watsa 3.0

https://federalcorporation.ca/director/stephanie-watsa

 

Also, I don't think most of you know that Quinn McLean, VP at Hamblin-Watsa, is Christine's husband.  So the Watsa family is well-represented throughout Fairfax.  Cheers!

[Dazel]

YesMan,

 

well if you want me to be greedy 20 years….thats about a 9% return since May! I would imagine Prem has been selling common stocks in the quarter and realizing gains. Insurance companies were pretty dear would not be surprised to see more sales of unconsolidated insurance companies.  

[Dazel]

There is not much to worry about in Fairfax 3.0 hope everyone bought the dip!

[73 Reds]

For any KW shareholders here, does it pay to continue to hold KW?  Bought some shares about 4-5 months ago (thanks to @gfp) and wondering what others are doing with their shares?

[gfp]

34 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

For any KW shareholders here, does it pay to continue to hold KW?  Bought some shares about 4-5 months ago (thanks to @gfp) and wondering what others are doing with their shares?

 

Sell and move on unless you want to shift the taxes to 2026.

[SafetyinNumbers]

15 minutes ago, gfp said:

 

Sell and move on unless you want to shift the taxes to 2026.

I bought a tiny amount post deal announcement. I think there is a decent chance of a bump and the dividend helps to carry the position. Really depends on what you plan to do with the proceeds and/or your cost of capital. 

[73 Reds]

43 minutes ago, gfp said:

 

Sell and move on unless you want to shift the taxes to 2026.

It's in my tax-deferred account - not a big deal but was thinking about moving the money into Fairfax India.  It was a good call on your part, decent chance of a buyout and get paid to wait - thanks!

[73 Reds]

28 minutes ago, SafetyinNumbers said:

I bought a tiny amount post deal announcement. I think there is a decent chance of a bump and the dividend helps to carry the position. Really depends on what you plan to do with the proceeds and/or your cost of capital. 

Do you think they'd hold out for a higher price?  Can't imagine any opposing 3rd party bidders.

[gfp]

46 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

Do you think they'd hold out for a higher price?  Can't imagine any opposing 3rd party bidders.

 

This sounds totally negotiated between the two parties and I'll bet it gets no bump.  

[SafetyinNumbers]

19 minutes ago, gfp said:

 

This sounds totally negotiated between the two parties and I'll bet it gets no bump.  

Special committee first learns about it at the time of proposal. Usually insider bids get a bump like Atlas but always possible it doesn’t like Recipe. The closer it trades to the deal price the more sense it makes to sell. If I wasn’t using leverage to fund the purchase, I wouldn’t own it. 

[73 Reds]

5 minutes ago, SafetyinNumbers said:

Special committee first learns about it at the time of proposal. Usually insider bids get a bump like Atlas but always possible it doesn’t like Recipe. The closer it trades to the deal price the more sense it makes to sell. If I wasn’t using leverage to fund the purchase, I wouldn’t own it. 

Re. leverage, I kind of see it differently.  There does not appear to be a great deal of upside from here so what is the point of leverage?  OTOH, don't really mind holding this for a few months for what looks like another 4% and a dividend payment or two, particularly with a lack of great ideas right now aside from moving the money within the family to Fairfax India.

[SafetyinNumbers]

7 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

Re. leverage, I kind of see it differently.  There does not appear to be a great deal of upside from here so what is the point of leverage?  OTOH, don't really mind holding this for a few months for what looks like another 4% and a dividend payment or two, particularly with a lack of great ideas right now aside from moving the money within the family to Fairfax India.

It’s the tiny chance of deal break vs the certainty of return above the cost of borrowing. That’s basically the strategy of risk arb funds. I used to manage the Canadian risk arb strategy for UBS prop so I have a different perspective. I think there are lots of interesting things to buy but hard to beat Fairfax or Fairfax India which are about 63% of my net assets. 

[73 Reds]

Just now, SafetyinNumbers said:

It’s the tiny chance of deal break vs the certainty of return above the cost of borrowing. That’s basically the strategy of risk arb funds. I used to manage the Canadian risk arb strategy for UBS prop so I have a different perspective. I think there are lots of interesting things to buy but hard to beat Fairfax or Fairfax India which are about 63% of my net assets. 

Can't argue there!  My only other current idea that is gradually growing in this account is TGT (thanks, Sanjeev).

[Dazel]

Fairfax 3.0 is smooth sailing!

[Dazel]

Another opportunity. Insurance companies are selling off on interest rates bets….

Fairfax shareholders taking profits after a tremendous run. 

[Dazel]

Fairfax 3.0=blow out record earnings and steady compounding

[Dazel]

Fairfax 3.0 holds better than other stocks prices in corrections. Check

[Parsad]

On 11/27/2025 at 8:02 AM, 73 Reds said:

Can't argue there!  My only other current idea that is gradually growing in this account is TGT (thanks, Sanjeev).

 

It's weird how it is moving compared to other retailers.  Consumers, even well-to-do ones, are probably going to spend more at cheaper retailers with quality products.  I suspect that is why Macy's is also holding up pretty well!  Cheers!

[Parsad]

Dazel, are you pumping and dumping everywhere.  What's with the one sentence posts on different threads?   

 

Or do you have a spasm in your finger that clicks on the "Enter" key before you finish each post?  Cheers!

[TwoCitiesCapital]

1 hour ago, Parsad said:

 

It's weird how it is moving compared to other retailers.  Consumers, even well-to-do ones, are probably going to spend more at cheaper retailers with quality products.  I suspect that is why Macy's is also holding up pretty well!  Cheers!

 

It helps that it was down majorly before all of this. If you drop 50% before your peers do, you don't necessarily have to sell off sympathetically with them. 

[Dazel]

Sanjeev,

 

I have been Too busy buying and moving and shaking to write more! A little time this morning because markets are closed!  

 

Took time yesterday to go through some old files…realizing that the majority of my mentors, market mavens and value investors I follow or knew are dead or nearly there! Wild how fast time goes Sanjeev…just wild. I would take a moment to thank you again for creating this wonderful board. You are good man!

 

Cheers,

 

Dazel.