President-Elect Trump trades

[Dinar]

1 hour ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

 

Isn't it weird that those bond guys at PIMCO actually built one of the best returning stock funds of all time?

 

Even after underperforming by 10+% annualized each year for the last 3-years during the duration bear market, the PIMCO StocksPlus Long Duration fund is still beating the S&P 500 by over 0.30%/yr, after fees, on the 10-year figure numbers and has done ~13.5% per annum after fees since its inception in 2007.

 

And my guess is that the majority of the bond bear market is over, so we're probably judging them at the trough in relative performance

I think what they did, is they bought futures on the S&P and then used bond expertise to add alpha (outperform cash.)  

[LC]

19 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Isn’t tobacco a Trump trade? Beyond the more obvious things like lower tax rate benefit we have currently a situation, where there are hundreds of illicit vaper devices and what not available everywhere while at the same time the process to approve legit devices or products is totally broken.

 

If this is cleaned up, it would be a big benefit to those that play by the rules and that’s big tobacco.

 

Maybe? Unless the FDA goes deregulating a la DOGE

[TwoCitiesCapital]

9 minutes ago, Dinar said:

I think what they did, is they bought futures on the S&P and then used bond expertise to add alpha (outperform cash.)  

 

That's exactly what they did - and were like in the 99th percentile of actively managed equity funds pre-2022. 

 

Not entirely sure where things stand now given the recent 3-year returns, but still outperforming by 0.3% on a rolling 10-year basis and by ~4% per annum since 2007. 

 

Not bad for a bunch of dudes who just circle jerk for pension plans. 

[Gregmal]

Anyone who’s ever had a job in finance can tell you it’s not hard to ride where your incentives are. Guys who get paid to do nothing more than the minimum ride the path of least resistance for as long as they can, in this case 4 decades…you wouldn’t need a lot of genius to produce average or better results and be worth 8/9 figures. 
 

I certainly wouldn’t call them friends, but I know plenty of people who made retirement money working 15 months during the SPAC bubble. Bonds had a free ride 30x as long.

[Charlie]

On 12/19/2024 at 5:24 AM, Gregmal said:

Anyone who’s ever had a job in finance can tell you it’s not hard to ride where your incentives are.

And the consequences are the trillion dollar theft

or as Munger described the state of the stock picking industry: 

 

"If you stop to think about it, civilized man has always had soothsayers and shamans and

faith healers and God knows what all. The stock picking industry is four or five percent

super rational disciplined people. The rest of them are sort of like faith healers or shamans.

That´s the way it is, I´m afraid. It´s nice that they keep an image of being constructive,

sensible people when they´re really would-be faith healers. It keeps the self-respect up." 

 

 

[gfp]

So far we have yield curve steepening and natural gas rallying.  And I guess the private prison stocks have stayed high