BRK Q3 Results

[woodstove]

21 hours ago, hasilp89 said:

Interestingly Ben Graham was a proponent of this (multi-commodity backed currency) 

https://www.amazon.com/Commodities-Currency-Benjamin-Graham-Classics/dp/0070248060

 

https://www.ivey.uwo.ca/media/2826068/bengraham2ndsymposium-potvin-power-point-2009.pdf

Thank you to hasilp89 for the link to that potvin presentation.  I've admired Ben Graham's commodities currency ideas for a long time.  Value linked to tangible assets and productive capacity -- the essence of value investing, for society as well as for business operations.  Nice to see others agree!  Details -- well, I'm not smart enough to figure that out.  But there surely are younger folks capable if we give them the tasks and older folks listen and support their efforts.  Cheers!

[Value_Added]

21 hours ago, wabuffo said:

What matters is putting on your tool belt and trying to understand how the US monetary plumbing works.  

 

Any recommendations on literature that would help to understand this better?

[wabuffo]

Any recommendations on literature that would help to understand this better?

 

"Understanding Modern Money",  by L. Randall Wray is a good start

 

But find papers by the following authors as well:

Scott Fullwiler,

Mathew Forstater,

Stephanie Bell,

Peter Stella.

[Blake Hampton]

On 11/5/2024 at 4:33 PM, Parsad said:

 

No, they won't.  But if the shit hits the fan and no one has confidence in fiat currency, they would probably start to accept it.  You can buy small micro cards of gold now online, where you can break off tiny pieces.  So it might be a 10 gram thin rectangle, and pre designed so you could break off a small 1 gram square to buy goods with...rather than carrying around troy ounces of gold to try and trade with.  Cheers!
 

https://www.herobullion.com/valcambi-100-x-1-gram-gold-combibar/?srsltid=AfmBOoroy-bG5ZOpJzZWbkc0Zk9nV8Nh-FCeQtgrCOoT0cmQ18vVj9z6

I'm not a gold bug but this is still super interesting.

 

Edited November 12 by Blake Hampton

[Munger_Disciple]

BRK Levered ETF. Buffett probably hates this s**t:

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/buffett-berkshire-being-packaged-leveraged-193611168.html

[gfp]

General Re 3rd quarter NAIC filing came out.  No equity purchases in the quarter, not much of a surprise.  Kind of cool to see Gen Re get $235 per share for an Apple sale on 7/15 (basically top ticked the year so far) - and the basis on that stock was $29.94 / sh.

 

22039.2024.P.Q3.P.O.3.4836600.pdf

[hasilp89]

someone bought some dominos.

[DooDiligence]

Probably just fat fingered ordering a pizza. /s

[LC]

1 hour ago, hasilp89 said:

someone bought some dominos.

And POOL. @Saluki, maybe they are reading your posts?

 

Warren is lounging by the in-ground, stuffing himself with pepperoni slices and cinnamon twists. Good on him!  

[Milu]

9 hours ago, LC said:

And POOL. @Saluki, maybe they are reading your posts?

 

Warren is lounging by the in-ground, stuffing himself with pepperoni slices and cinnamon twists. Good on him!  

I always get a sense of smug satisfaction anytime Berkshire follows me into a position. First time happened with Apple and now dominos. Probably wasn’t Buffett through as not sure he cares to concern himself with small $500m positions. 

[gfp]

I forget who, but someone here reads these.  This is the Q3 NAIC report for National Indemnity.  

 

Definitely sounds like GUARD was the problem child during the quarter, as was pretty clear from the 10Q and mention of "new management."  Sounds like about $500 million of negative development that GUARD had ceded to NICO, plus NICO sent $517m of capital (unaffiliated stock holdings) to GUARD to boost their capital.  GUARD had been growing quickly for a decade or more.

 

20087.2024.P.Q3.P.O.3.4841235.pdf

[nwoodman]

5 hours ago, gfp said:

I forget who, but someone here reads these.  This is the Q3 NAIC report for National Indemnity.  

 

Definitely sounds like GUARD was the problem child during the quarter, as was pretty clear from the 10Q and mention of "new management."  Sounds like about $500 million of negative development that GUARD had ceded to NICO, plus NICO sent $517m of capital (unaffiliated stock holdings) to GUARD to boost their capital.  GUARD had been growing quickly for a decade or more.

 

20087.2024.P.Q3.P.O.3.4841235.pdf 2.91 MB · 6 downloads

Many thanks

[bt1]

 

Hi @gfp

 

Thanks for sharing this document.

 

Wanted to understand the numbers you mention in your post.

The section ‘Capital Contribution to subsidiaries’ mentions 517m you have given above.

 

I also see that  Note 25 mentions ‘unfavorable prior year development totaling 462 million on business assumed from affliated GUARD insurance companies’. Is this what you round off to about 500m in your post.

 

Or are there additional negative developments elsewhere in this that I missed.

[gfp]

7 hours ago, bt1 said:

 

Hi @gfp

 

Thanks for sharing this document.

 

Wanted to understand the numbers you mention in your post.

The section ‘Capital Contribution to subsidiaries’ mentions 517m you have given above.

 

I also see that  Note 25 mentions ‘unfavorable prior year development totaling 462 million on business assumed from affliated GUARD insurance companies’. Is this what you round off to about 500m in your post.

 

Or are there additional negative developments elsewhere in this that I missed.

Those are the figures I was referring to but just sort of rounded them because I didn’t have the exact numbers in front of me. 

[bt1]

14 hours ago, gfp said:

Those are the figures I was referring to but just sort of rounded them because I didn’t have the exact numbers in front of me. 

Thanks much for clarifying.

[gfp]

On 11/16/2024 at 12:00 AM, bt1 said:

 

Hi @gfp

 

Thanks for sharing this document.

 

Wanted to understand the numbers you mention in your post.

The section ‘Capital Contribution to subsidiaries’ mentions 517m you have given above.

 

I also see that  Note 25 mentions ‘unfavorable prior year development totaling 462 million on business assumed from affliated GUARD insurance companies’. Is this what you round off to about 500m in your post.

 

Or are there additional negative developments elsewhere in this that I missed.

 

Here is some more color on the deterioration at GUARD from an AM Best note (h/t Kingswell substack)

 

AM Best revised its outlook for some members of Berkshire’s GUARD insurance unit from stable to negative. “The negative outlook reflects sharp deterioration in GUARD’s underwriting results that began in the 2023 calendar year and worsened in the first nine months of 2024,” says the press release. But, on a happier note, AM Best lauded the insurer for taking “significant steps to improve its underwriting” such as discontinuing troublesome lines of business and bringing in an “almost entirely new senior leadership team tasked with restoring its operating performance”.

• The rating agency concedes that its concerns are “greatly mitigated by the group’s position as a subsidiary of Berkshire Hathaway” — and that a significant capital infusion from National Indemnity Co. in Q2 2024 shows that Berkshire remains committed to righting the ship at GUARD.

[bt1]

6 hours ago, gfp said:

 

Here is some more color on the deterioration at GUARD from an AM Best note (h/t Kingswell substack)

 

 

AM Best revised its outlook for some members of Berkshire’s GUARD insurance unit from stable to negative. “The negative outlook reflects sharp deterioration in GUARD’s underwriting results that began in the 2023 calendar year and worsened in the first nine months of 2024,” says the press release. But, on a happier note, AM Best lauded the insurer for taking “significant steps to improve its underwriting” such as discontinuing troublesome lines of business and bringing in an “almost entirely new senior leadership team tasked with restoring its operating performance”.

• The rating agency concedes that its concerns are “greatly mitigated by the group’s position as a subsidiary of Berkshire Hathaway” — and that a significant capital infusion from National Indemnity Co. in Q2 2024 shows that Berkshire remains committed to righting the ship at GUARD.

Thanks much @gfp for sharing this additional info.

[Kuhndan]

Didn’t Buffett sing Guard’s praises in the 2020 annual letter? I remember him saying the CEO was going to be a future superstar for Berkshire’s insurance group. Guess that didn’t work out.