US Exceptionalism

[Lazarus]

On 12/5/2024 at 6:25 AM, Dalal.Holdings said:

 

Not really. Assets under a Marxism-Lenninism system deserve to trade at a steep discount

The argument in favour of China is that graph shows its P/E levels are below its usual median. China's market could easily fall further with a looming trade war on the horizon, but it will rise eventually.

[Dalal.Holdings]

52 minutes ago, Lazarus said:

The argument in favour of China is that graph shows its P/E levels are below its usual median. China's market could easily fall further with a looming trade war on the horizon, but it will rise eventually.

 

Below its median relative to what years? When it was thought as "becoming more capitalistic" and "more open"? When it wasn't openly lusting after Taiwan? When it wasn't under the lifetime rule of Xi?

 

If you notice that graph, it provides 10th-90th percentile bars and a median for stock valuations over the past 20 years. In the past 20 years, China has changed fundamentally thanks to Xi and deserves to trade lower than its 20 year average. China's stocks deserved a higher multiple before Xi. Now with Xi, they deserve a lower multiple thanks to his leadership. It's as simple as that.

 

I don't know exactly what multiple to assign an investment you can wake up to being down 95% like Russian stocks the day Russia invaded Ukraine, but I know it's not anything close to the multiple I'd pay to invest in capitalist countries.

 

Edited December 7 by Dalal.Holdings

[Lazarus]

Fair enough, Dalal. Good points. I might be seduced by the drastic changes China has made over the past 30 to 40 years - their growth has been extraordinary and I assume it will continue. My gut feeling on human nature is that people won't be willing to return to repression and communism after experiencing the benefits of capitalism (even the pseudo-capitalism of China), but Xi and the lack of democracy makes everything questionable.

[james22]

[rkbabang]

[Luke]

13 minutes ago, rkbabang said:

Hours are not what counts; productivity is achieved during worked hours, which is high in Germany.

[Luke]

14 minutes ago, rkbabang said:

Hours are not what counts; productivity achieved during worked hours is what counts, which is high in Germany.

[cubsfan]

1 minute ago, Luke said:

Hours are not what counts; productivity achieved during worked hours is what counts, which is high in Germany.

 

In your opinion, what's the problem with the German economy. I always thought of it as highly productive.

[rkbabang]

4 minutes ago, Luke said:

Hours are not what counts; productivity achieved during worked hours is what counts, which is high in Germany.

 

German workers must be efficient to have as good an economy as they do while working hundreds of hours less than other countries every year.  But it obviously isn't efficient enough to grow at the rate the US economy does while working so much less.

[Luke]

20 minutes ago, rkbabang said:

 

German workers must be efficient to have as good an economy as they do while working hundreds of hours less than other countries every year.  But it obviously isn't efficient enough to grow at the rate the US economy does while working so much less.

Unfortunately, I am no expert in the research on the impact of annual hours on productivity and where the sweet spot lies, but I would not take worked hours as a reliable estimate to make conclusions about why some countries are successful or not. It might even be the case for the US that they would do better with a reduction in working hours, case specific for the country of course depending on level of technology implemented at work, culture etc. I dont think increasing working hours in germany from 40 to 60 would lead to the wished-for improvements in the economy.

 

@cubsfan Yes, it is highly productive and basically it still has one of the best set ups to be a successful economy but there are several issues at place that are IMO solvable:

1. cheap energy and natural resources: Germany relies on foreign ressources and cheap energy for industry. Thats why germany should not engage in geopolitics as the US does because it does not serve our interests as much it serves the US. We need China and Russia for both export markets as well as natural ressource exporters. Open global markets are important if you are an exporting champion which is why germany suffers especially now.

2. malinvestment in critical industry: our automotive players have way more competition, especially from china which causes pressure in those markets, on top we dont have the best software focuse yet and are a bit behind in those industries-> needs subsidies, university cooperation, attract talent who makes money and doesnt have to pay much taxes

3. infrastructure investments by government, debt break needs to go loose to rebuild overall infrastructure, bridges, energy, schools etc to get the overall economy going.

4. increase domestic demand: we need to focus on domestic demand too which was not the focus so far

5. bureaucracy, same problem in US

6. migration, same problem as US

7. reform of pension system, we need tax free account and a pension invested on capital markets

8. lower taxes for bottom 90% and smaller companies

 

just some points that need to be done in order to get germany towards the powerhouse it actually can be

Edited 16 hours ago by Luke

[cubsfan]

@Luke Thank you!

[Dinar]

1 hour ago, Luke said:

Unfortunately, I am no expert in the research on the impact of annual hours on productivity and where the sweet spot lies, but I would not take worked hours as a reliable estimate to make conclusions about why some countries are successful or not. It might even be the case for the US that they would do better with a reduction in working hours, case specific for the country of course depending on level of technology implemented at work, culture etc. I dont think increasing working hours in germany from 40 to 60 would lead to the wished-for improvements in the economy.

 

@cubsfan Yes, it is highly productive and basically it still has one of the best set ups to be a successful economy but there are several issues at place that are IMO solvable:

1. cheap energy and natural resources: Germany relies on foreign ressources and cheap energy for industry. Thats why germany should not engage in geopolitics as the US does because it does not serve our interests as much it serves the US. We need China and Russia for both export markets as well as natural ressource exporters. Open global markets are important if you are an exporting champion which is why germany suffers especially now.

2. malinvestment in critical industry: our automotive players have way more competition, especially from china which causes pressure in those markets, on top we dont have the best software focuse yet and are a bit behind in those industries-> needs subsidies, university cooperation, attract talent who makes money and doesnt have to pay much taxes

3. infrastructure investments by government, debt break needs to go loose to rebuild overall infrastructure, bridges, energy, schools etc to get the overall economy going.

4. increase domestic demand: we need to focus on domestic demand too which was not the focus so far

5. bureaucracy, same problem in US

6. migration, same problem as US

7. reform of pension system, we need tax free account and a pension invested on capital markets

8. lower taxes for bottom 90% and smaller companies

 

just some points that need to be done in order to get germany towards the powerhouse it actually can be

Germany's immigration problem is much worse than the problem in the US.   We primarily get people from Latin America, who while not educated, are mostly hard working, and most importantly are not trying to kill us.  Germany has Syrians and Turks and Africans who are primarily young Muslim males, with zero work ethic and often happy to attack non-believers.   Now the children of immigrants in the US may not be much better than children of immigrants in Germany, but again, they are not trying to kill us.  Name the last terror attack on American soil done by a Christian from Latin America in the last several decades. Now look at Europe.

[cubsfan]

^^^ That's a great point. Same feedback as my wife's family from France says. Unemployed Muslim gang members terrorizing France, not wanting to work.

[Kizion]

7 hours ago, Dinar said:

Germany's immigration problem is much worse than the problem in the US.   We primarily get people from Latin America, who while not educated, are mostly hard working, and most importantly are not trying to kill us.  Germany has Syrians and Turks and Africans who are primarily young Muslim males, with zero work ethic and often happy to attack non-believers.   Now the children of immigrants in the US may not be much better than children of immigrants in Germany, but again, they are not trying to kill us.  Name the last terror attack on American soil done by a Christian from Latin America in the last several decades. Now look at Europe.

 

Personally I don't like this post at all - why would the intrinstic work ethic of an individual depend on it's race? Like it's part of their DNA? 

Just look at the post above, on the hours worked by the individuals in each country - even the work ethic (if you use hours worked as a proxy) is lower in Germans vs. Americans - is that also part of our DNA? And the fact the hours are decreasing, it's because our DNA changed throughout time? 

 

No, the reason why Germans and EU immigrants are show less work ethic is because it's less needed in EU. We spoil people way to much. Our social security is state of the art, and you get it already with minimal effort (and way to many ways to exploit the system). I've only been to US once, but I've the perception that it's more work or die.

While in the EU you can make the choice not to work and still being fine. it's a choice in the EU, while it's a need in the US. 

 

I fully agree with Luke above on the items that could make Germany/EU great again.

Point 1, 3, 8 would already bring EU very far, in combination with focus on growth i.s.o risk management/regulation. 

Point 1 is gravity, but could be supported by point 3 - investments in Nuclear energy, wind, solar, ... 

Point 8 could support point 4 (internal demand)

[Luke]

2 hours ago, Kizion said:

 

Personally I don't like this post at all - why would the intrinstic work ethic of an individual depend on it's race? Like it's part of their DNA? 

Just look at the post above, on the hours worked by the individuals in each country - even the work ethic (if you use hours worked as a proxy) is lower in Germans vs. Americans - is that also part of our DNA? And the fact the hours are decreasing, it's because our DNA changed throughout time? 

 

No, the reason why Germans and EU immigrants are show less work ethic is because it's less needed in EU. We spoil people way to much. Our social security is state of the art, and you get it already with minimal effort (and way to many ways to exploit the system). I've only been to US once, but I've the perception that it's more work or die.

While in the EU you can make the choice not to work and still being fine. it's a choice in the EU, while it's a need in the US. 

 

I fully agree with Luke above on the items that could make Germany/EU great again.

Point 1, 3, 8 would already bring EU very far, in combination with focus on growth i.s.o risk management/regulation. 

Point 1 is gravity, but could be supported by point 3 - investments in Nuclear energy, wind, solar, ... 

Point 8 could support point 4 (internal demand)

Yeah, the problem is not ethnicity but level of education and development of those people who migrate. If you have a Phd Muslim from Dubai who comes here and works full time making 150k and paying taxes etc thats a dream come true because we spend 0 dollars on him while he provides a lot of economic and societal value. But if someone from the poorest regions from syria with lots of health problems, no language capabilities and little school education+family comes here we need to pay years of social support before they start a job, pay expensive language courses, integrate him into the public health insurance system where he needs expensive treatments+support his family then the state goes hundreds of thousands of euros into the minus. And whats he going to pay back over time? He won't make a lot of money with no qualifications etc. So thats a problem and why the current migration is bad for germany. They should encourage qualified, civilized healthy individuals. Problem is many of these wanna go to the US or Switzerland so we need to lower taxes for them and make germany attractive. Then we can make up for the low birthrate. But i am fully for upping the local birthrate with incentives so it has to be done simultaneously. Musk understands this. 

[Luke]

And germany could have a massive call option if they reunite eurasia, establish a large free trade zone from lisbon to Vladivostok with china and russia as good trading partners. The US worst nightmare and a threat to US exceptionalism. But western europe is too polarized and not unified enough for it. You would need a 50%+ party with orban like mentality in all the countries to unleash that power. Would be actually freaking amazing how much growth could happen if thise geopolitical fiddling non sense would stop and leaders work together to improve technology and society. I hope musk and trump go that way and not the old geopolitical protectionists, nation building oligarchy kind of stuff. 

Edited 4 hours ago by Luke

[Dinar]

4 hours ago, Kizion said:

 

Personally I don't like this post at all - why would the intrinstic work ethic of an individual depend on it's race? Like it's part of their DNA? 

Just look at the post above, on the hours worked by the individuals in each country - even the work ethic (if you use hours worked as a proxy) is lower in Germans vs. Americans - is that also part of our DNA? And the fact the hours are decreasing, it's because our DNA changed throughout time? 

 

No, the reason why Germans and EU immigrants are show less work ethic is because it's less needed in EU. We spoil people way to much. Our social security is state of the art, and you get it already with minimal effort (and way to many ways to exploit the system). I've only been to US once, but I've the perception that it's more work or die.

While in the EU you can make the choice not to work and still being fine. it's a choice in the EU, while it's a need in the US. 

 

I fully agree with Luke above on the items that could make Germany/EU great again.

Point 1, 3, 8 would already bring EU very far, in combination with focus on growth i.s.o risk management/regulation. 

Point 1 is gravity, but could be supported by point 3 - investments in Nuclear energy, wind, solar, ... 

Point 8 could support point 4 (internal demand)

Well, you don't have to like it, but the fact is that Jews are 25% of the world's Nobel prize laureates while accounting for 0.2% of the world's population, while the entire Islamic world is 30% of the world's population and 0.5% of the world Nobel laureates and 80% of the world's terrorists.  Similarly, whether due to culture or ethnicity, Chinese/Koreans/Japanese succeed everywhere,  Africans and Arabs don't.

[Kizion]

15 minutes ago, Dinar said:

Well, you don't have to like it, but the fact is that Jews are 25% of the world's Nobel prize laureates while accounting for 0.2% of the world's population, while the entire Islamic world is 30% of the world's population and 0.5% of the world Nobel laureates and 80% of the world's terrorists.  Similarly, whether due to culture or ethnicity, Chinese/Koreans/Japanese succeed everywhere,  Africans and Arabs don't.

 

Thanks for stating facts, but let's not forget your initial point, which was that work ethic is related to ethnicity.

So above fact can 100% be explained by difference in work ethic between Muslims & Jews? It's not at all due to difference in access to information, where they live, welfare, education, stereotypes, ... 

 

80% of world terrorists, ok, but what is the % of people killed in terrorist attacks vs. other criminal attacks? Mass shootings in the US are often not coloured people.

 

Just to make clear, I don't mind you having your opinion, but I don't like stereotyping one race vs. others and definitely not if you're (and none of us is) not able to put it in the correct context. 

 

[Dinar]

59 minutes ago, Kizion said:

 

Thanks for stating facts, but let's not forget your initial point, which was that work ethic is related to ethnicity.

So above fact can 100% be explained by difference in work ethic between Muslims & Jews? It's not at all due to difference in access to information, where they live, welfare, education, stereotypes, ... 

 

80% of world terrorists, ok, but what is the % of people killed in terrorist attacks vs. other criminal attacks? Mass shootings in the US are often not coloured people.

 

Just to make clear, I don't mind you having your opinion, but I don't like stereotyping one race vs. others and definitely not if you're (and none of us is) not able to put it in the correct context. 

 

Muslim terrorists killed over 3000 people on 09/11/2001 alone, now what is the total number of people killed in mass shootings in the US in the last 25 years?   Why have Chinese managed to build Singapore, Japanese - Japan, Koreans - South Korea, India is booming, while what Arab/African country is booming?  Why are millions of people fleeing Arab/Moslem/African world?   What happened to Zimbabwe and South Africa after end of white rule?  What are the educational & professional achievements of Muslim/African/Arab immigrants in Western Europe vs Jews from the Arab countries?