mcliu Posted December 13, 2024 Posted December 13, 2024 Ontario. Are you in Quebec? I think Ontario's in a bigger mess than most of the country because most newcomers end up here.
mcliu Posted December 13, 2024 Posted December 13, 2024 On 12/13/2024 at 1:37 PM, Xerxes said: 100% And pay our NATO bills. it ain’t free. Expand Also crime. People are buying bollards for their driveways cause car theft has gotten so bad. We just don't have the budget for NATO because so much money is wasted here. CAD is breaking record lows. We don't even know what the deficit looks like for this year. Govt is bent on spending more and more. I guess that's what we should expect when the guy in charge thinks the "budget will balance itself".
Xerxes Posted December 13, 2024 Posted December 13, 2024 On 12/13/2024 at 4:04 PM, mcliu said: Ontario. Are you in Quebec? I think Ontario's in a bigger mess than most of the country because most newcomers end up here. Expand yeap. La Belle Province.
Spekulatius Posted December 14, 2024 Posted December 14, 2024 Fighting two wars is getting expensive: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-budget-deficit-dips-79gdp-oct-despite-higher-war-expenses-2024-11-11/#:~:text=The ministry said that despite,first 10 months of 2024.
mcliu Posted December 14, 2024 Posted December 14, 2024 This is kind interesting. Israel has been running annual budget deficit (3-7%) for the last 25 years. But because their GDP has grown so quickly. Debt to GDP has gone from ~90% of GDP to ~60%.
mcliu Posted December 15, 2024 Posted December 15, 2024 https://nationalpost.com/news/hamas-vastly-inflated-gaza-death-statistics-study-shows
Spekulatius Posted December 15, 2024 Posted December 15, 2024 On 12/14/2024 at 7:39 PM, mcliu said: This is kind interesting. Israel has been running annual budget deficit (3-7%) for the last 25 years. But because their GDP has grown so quickly. Debt to GDP has gone from ~90% of GDP to ~60%. Expand Yes, if you run a 4% deficit and have 4% growth, your debt/income ratio stays the same.
Dinar Posted December 15, 2024 Posted December 15, 2024 I would be very careful in comparing budget deficit as a % of GDP and debt/GDP across countries. In some countries (Italy, Israel, Russia, Ukraine, most of Africa, Egypt, etc) there is a very high cash economy as a % of GDP that is not recorded. In other places such as Germany/Switzerland/Netherlands/Sweden/Finland, I would assume much less tax evasion.
Spekulatius Posted December 15, 2024 Posted December 15, 2024 On 12/15/2024 at 11:10 PM, Dinar said: I would be very careful in comparing budget deficit as a % of GDP and debt/GDP across countries. In some countries (Italy, Israel, Russia, Ukraine, most of Africa, Egypt, etc) there is a very high cash economy as a % of GDP that is not recorded. In other places such as Germany/Switzerland/Netherlands/Sweden/Finland, I would assume much less tax evasion. Expand Germany has a decent cash economy too, I can assure that. Germans like paying in cash, getting paid in cash for good reasons and it’s not just because modern payments don’t exist. You get a better deal from a small contractor paying on cash than with credit or check, same than in the US. FWIW, the last car I bought in Germany from a dealer ( a low mileage almost new Vorführwagen) was paid in cash and I got a very good deal on that one, that was in the 90‘s but I am sure I could do the same thing now.
mcliu Posted December 16, 2024 Posted December 16, 2024 On 12/15/2024 at 9:05 PM, Spekulatius said: Yes, if you run a 4% deficit and have 4% growth, your debt/income ratio stays the same. Expand Rare to see this today! All major economies are seeing debt/gdp ratios exploding higher. On 12/15/2024 at 7:26 PM, mcliu said: https://nationalpost.com/news/hamas-vastly-inflated-gaza-death-statistics-study-shows Expand Surprise surprise, Palestinian health authority aka Hamas dramatically over-inflates Gaza civilians deaths.
Xerxes Posted December 16, 2024 Posted December 16, 2024 On 12/16/2024 at 9:06 PM, mcliu said: Surprise surprise, Palestinian health authority aka Hamas dramatically over-inflates Gaza civilians deaths. Expand is that a re-post of yesterday. Why is it surprising that Hamas inflates numbers. Hamas does make up a lot of stuff. directionally though, does it matter ?
mcliu Posted December 17, 2024 Posted December 17, 2024 (edited) On 12/16/2024 at 10:39 PM, Xerxes said: is that a re-post of yesterday. Why is it surprising that Hamas inflates numbers. Hamas does make up a lot of stuff. directionally though, does it matter ? Expand How is it a genocide? Edited December 17, 2024 by mcliu
Xerxes Posted December 17, 2024 Posted December 17, 2024 Genocide ? where does that comes from I thought we were friends. We were exchanging jokes about Trudeau just a moment ago. Now I am put on spot and required to take sides on this genocide discussion. good lord.
mcliu Posted December 17, 2024 Posted December 17, 2024 On 12/17/2024 at 3:07 AM, Xerxes said: Genocide ? where does that comes from I thought we were friends. We were exchanging jokes about Trudeau just a moment ago. Now I am put on spot and required to take sides on this genocide discussion. good lord. Expand Sorry, it's more of a rhetorical question. Anyone with common sense knows what's happening in Gaza is a tragedy but not a genocide. The media is at fault for parroting Hamas figures without skepticism. Anyhow it's absurd that these Palestinian "anti-zionist" supporters are protesting in Jewish neighbourhoods in Canada as if they have any influence over Israeli policy. It sounds like Israel and Hamas are close to a ceasefire agreement. https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas-gaza-war-ceasefire-egypt-qatar-264087c7a547031a9433ecbbdcd920d2
Xerxes Posted December 25, 2024 Posted December 25, 2024 (edited) https://carnegieendowment.org/middle-east/diwan/2024/12/why-did-iran-allow-assads-downfall?lang=en Unlike in 2016, when Iranian ground forces complemented Russian air support in the siege of Aleppo, neither patron demonstrated the will or capability to launch a similar counteroffensive. Both powers had grown increasingly frustrated with Assad’s intransigence. For Russia and Iran, Assad was their man until he wasn’t. By early 2024, both Iran and Russia had changed when it came to the Syrian president. Russia was particularly incensed by his repeated violations of the Idlib deescalation agreement and stubborn resistance to any form of a negotiated settlement. Meanwhile, Iran found its once-considerable influence over Damascus steadily eroding, with Assad increasingly charting an independent course that often conflicted with Tehran’s regional objectives. Iran’s suspicions of Assad deepened after a series of leaks disclosed the movements of IRGC officials that culminated in Israeli strikes on these officials in Syria. The Quds Force, once given relatively free rein in Syria, now found its movements increasingly restricted by the Syrian authorities, with Assad refusing to allow the use of the Golan Heights as a potential front against Israel. Perhaps most provocatively, Damascus had begun limiting Shiite religious activities throughout Syria—a direct challenge to Iran’s efforts to expand its ideological and cultural influence in the region. By the time rebels launched their offensive, neither Iran nor Russia saw sufficient value in expending further resources to prop up a regime that had become more liability than asset. …,. Iran’s initial response suggested a familiar playbook—the mobilization of Iraqi militias to shore up Assad’s defenses. However, the Iraqi government refused to allow these forces to cross into Syria. Rather than challenge this decision, Iran acquiesced with surprising ease. In a stunning development, Iranian-backed forces abandoned their most strategic asset—control of the Syrian-Iraqi border crossing—without any resistance. The IRGC and pro-Iran Iraqi fighters had already pulled out of Deir al-Zor before Kurdish forces moved in, leading to the swift capture of the crucial Qa’im-Bukamal border crossing by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). …… The governorate of Deir al-Zor and its border crossing at Bukamal had served as Iran’s crown jewel in Syria, representing a vital link in Tehran’s regional ambitions. After capturing control of Deir al-Zor from the Islamic State group in 2017, Iran transformed this eastern Syrian region into a crucial corridor for projecting power across the Levant. The Qa’im-Bukamal crossing became the linchpin in Iran’s land bridge to Lebanon, facilitating the movement of weapons, fighters, and supplies to its proxy forces throughout the region. The significance of Deir al-Zor was not just in its logistical value. Iran had invested heavily in securing this territory, establishing a network of military bases, and cultivating deep ties with local tribal leaders. The Iranians exploited Arab grievances against both the Islamic State and later the SDF, while simultaneously using the region to pressure U.S. forces stationed at the Tanf garrison and near the Conoco gas field. Iranian-backed militias frequently launched attacks against American positions from this territory, making it a theater in the broader U.S.-Iranian regional competition. Yet when Assad’s regime began to fall apart, Iran made the surprising decision to cede this vital territory to the SDF. This retreat perhaps reflected a more nefarious, long-term strategy—betting that the persistent tensions between Kurdish forces and the local Arab population and Turkish-backed rebel forces would eventually create new opportunities for a return of Iranian influence. Edited December 25, 2024 by Xerxes
Spekulatius Posted December 25, 2024 Posted December 25, 2024 I think it’s right to say that Syria wasn’t worth doubling up on for both Russia and Iran for the reasons mentioned. The Assad regime was just a lousy partner and both Iran and Russia are weakened by the other wars that make it harder to allocate more resources to this tertiary battlefield. I am fairly sure that Iran is closely watching the situation and plans for some comeback eventually.
Spekulatius Posted December 26, 2024 Posted December 26, 2024 (edited) Power shortages in Iran, They oil and gas coming out their ears but don’t have enough power, It’s the compounding effect of sanctions and mismanagement and corruption . The collapse of power grid means that economic decline is going to accelerate. People often state that sanctions don’t work, but look the economies of countries that are long term under sanctions - Venezuela , Iran, another Korea, Russia. All of them are on terminal decline trajectory. The sanction do work as they chip away on the foundation of the economies. Russia will meet the same destiny, it may take a decade or two but at the end, the economy will be such a Debbie downer that wont be dangerous for the west any more. Edited December 26, 2024 by Spekulatius
Dinar Posted December 26, 2024 Posted December 26, 2024 @Spekulatius, I disagree regarding impact of sanctions. The reason that Venezuela and North Korea are economic basket cases is socialism, not sanctions. USSR economy did not implode due to sanctions. Iran in my opinion, despite an incredibly rich culture, great civilization and sophistication is hurt by: a) No rule of law b) No freedom of speech or press c) Crony capitalism d) Religious fundamentalism. By the way, what makes me concerned about Israel's economic progress is the rising proportion of orthodox Jews in society. They don't contribute and you can argue are anti-enlightenment.
Ulti Posted December 26, 2024 Posted December 26, 2024 On 12/26/2024 at 8:53 PM, Dinar said: y the way, what makes me concerned about Israel's economic progress is the rising proportion of orthodox Jews in society. They don't contribute and you can argue are anti-enlightenment. Expand Bingo… and they run the government
Spekulatius Posted December 27, 2024 Posted December 27, 2024 (edited) On 12/26/2024 at 8:53 PM, Dinar said: @Spekulatius, I disagree regarding impact of sanctions. The reason that Venezuela and North Korea are economic basket cases is socialism, not sanctions. USSR economy did not implode due to sanctions. Iran in my opinion, despite an incredibly rich culture, great civilization and sophistication is hurt by: a) No rule of law b) No freedom of speech or press c) Crony capitalism d) Religious fundamentalism. By the way, what makes me concerned about Israel's economic progress is the rising proportion of orthodox Jews in society. They don't contribute and you can argue are anti-enlightenment. Expand Every country that ever created real wealth for their population has done so within the western trade network. As far as I can tell, no country has ever succeeded outside, As far as I can tell, no country has been successful trading with Russia. a)- d) often (but not always) comes as a package that sooner or later adds sanctions if they become adversaries as well and makes it even harder to fix deficiencies arising from above. To my knowledge, no country has ever become wealthy despite decades long sanction on their economy and getting excluded from western trade. If you know one, I would like to study this case, it for sure would be interesting. The cost of sanctions to the Russian economy will compound and will make their economy over time a total basket case which also makes them much less dangerous to the west, Yes, they can trade with China but any Chinese company that goes too deep in can get sanctioned too and then they risk to give up a huge amount of revenue for this tiny crappy Russia business. Edited December 27, 2024 by Spekulatius
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