Fairfax 2024

[Hektor]

46 minutes ago, SafetyinNumbers said:

BRK has better shareholders 

[Junior R]

Plus fairfax does have muddywaters lol

[Junior R]

crazy drop lol

[UK]

2 hours ago, SafetyinNumbers said:

BRK has better shareholders 

 

But it seems this dip is only FFH related, because I do not see many insurance stocks in the red. Perhaps it is just some kind of noise.

[backtothebeach]

U.S. bond yields are down quite a bit since the end of Q2. Does anyone have a quick estimate of the effect on Fairfax' bond portfolio and book value?

 

Treasury yields:

Date	06/28/2024	08/06/2024
1 Mo	5.47	5.50
2 Mo	5.47	5.43
3 Mo	5.48	5.34
4 Mo	5.45	5.18
6 Mo	5.33	5.00
1 Yr	5.09	4.46
2 Yr	4.71	3.99
3 Yr	4.52	3.76
5 Yr	4.33	3.73
7 Yr	4.33	3.79
10 Yr	4.36	3.90
20 Yr	4.61	4.28
30 Yr	4.51	4.18

[hardcorevalue]

Good short term but pretty bad long term if we are headed lower on rates.

They probably should have locked in for a bit longer in hindsight

[MMM20]

37 minutes ago, hardcorevalue said:

Good short term but pretty bad long term if we are headed lower on rates.

Isn’t that only true if credit (and equity) spreads widen out? Unless it also gets cheaper for new supply to come on and soften insurance, the fair multiple (discount rate) for FFH might go much higher (lower)! It’s a long duration business even if not priced like it!

 

Edited August 7, 2024 by MMM20

[hardcorevalue]

I think there were a lot of people that were long Fairfax for higher rates. That trade is dead now and then you have Prem go buy a mediocre Canadian mattress chain right before a potential recession. I think there are some flashbacks to previous rough times and people aren’t waiting around to find out. I’m a long term bull on rates going on higher so I’m ok with it but a bond portfolio matched to their liabilities would have worked out a bit better with rates falling. 

[SafetyinNumbers]

2 hours ago, UK said:

 

But it seems this dip is only FFH related, because I do not see many insurance stocks in the red. Perhaps it is just some kind of noise.

I think there are a few marginal traders that owned it for higher for longer and now they think that’s over so they are selling. They aren’t projecting where book value will be in five years or how understated estimates might be given low expectations for the equity portfolio or how well FFH is positioned to be opportunistic in market volatility.

Edited August 7, 2024 by SafetyinNumbers

[Parsad]

51 minutes ago, hardcorevalue said:

I think there were a lot of people that were long Fairfax for higher rates. That trade is dead now and then you have Prem go buy a mediocre Canadian mattress chain right before a potential recession. I think there are some flashbacks to previous rough times and people aren’t waiting around to find out. I’m a long term bull on rates going on higher so I’m ok with it but a bond portfolio matched to their liabilities would have worked out a bit better with rates falling. 

 

You guys are fretting over a minor blip that has nothing to do with Sleep Country.  I've been adding to my FFH holdings...first time since 2020!

 

Cheers!

 

[gfp]

5 minutes ago, Parsad said:

 

You guys are fretting over a minor blip that has nothing to do with Sleep Country.  I've been adding to my FFH holdings...first time since 2020!

 

Cheers!

 

 

been just following it down

 

[hardcorevalue]

Ha don’t count me out.

 

I’ve been adding too!

 

[Malmqky]

Added for the first time in over a year on Monday as well. Probably added too much too soon, but that seems to be a reoccurring theme with my investments. Always too much too early, when I should be taking more of a DCA approach. Oh well, I have some cash so if things continue to drop I'll just buy a large chunk again.

[backtothebeach]

24 minutes ago, gfp said:

 

been just following it down

 

 

I'm most impressed with how you top ticked FIH.U !

[Paarslaars]

1 hour ago, hardcorevalue said:

Ha don’t count me out.

 

I’ve been adding too!

 

 

Same, FFH jumped back into my top 3 again.

[yqsun]

35 minutes ago, Paarslaars said:

 

Same, FFH jumped back into my top 3 again.

The market index appears quite weak. I plan to wait for a 20% drawdown in FFH to around C$1300 before adding more to my position. 

[Buffett_Groupie]

FFH share price gets no respect at all from good earnings report last week or sell-side analysts' consensus target price of C$2,000/share.

 

Well, simply let management buy back more shares at lower prices, right?

 

Without enduring the pain and suffering, any good results are underserving as Charlie Munger often said: "Why should it be easy to become rich? It isn't supposed to be easy. Anyone who finds it easy is stupid. The world isn't a crazy enough place yet to reward a bunch of underserving people."

 

"Life is a struggle." - Karl Marx

[Parsad]

1 hour ago, yqsun said:

The market index appears quite weak. I plan to wait for a 20% drawdown in FFH to around C$1300 before adding more to my position. 

 

It may or may not...I don't think it's going to hit $1300 CDN.  Think about it:

 

Current book is $980 USD.  They add another $70 USD in book by year-end...worst case scenario!  So $1050 USD book at year-end 2024.

 

Next year they will make around $175 USD per share...so $1225 USD book value at year-end 2025.

 

$1225 USD times 1.33 (assumes USD loses a bit of steam) = $1629 CDN...multiple of 1.25 = $2,036 CDN.

 

Those numbers are very realistic, conservative and means a 40% return by the end of 2025 or 25%+ annualized over 18 months.

 

Cheers!

[MMM20]

1 hour ago, Buffett_Groupie said:

Without enduring the pain and suffering, any good results are underserving as Charlie Munger often said: "Why should it be easy to become rich? It isn't supposed to be easy. Anyone who finds it easy is stupid. The world isn't a crazy enough place yet to reward a bunch of underserving people."

We are talking about a 10% ish drawdown. This happens like twice a year. If this is causing you pain and suffering, you’re probably too big in Fairfax.
 

I thought Charlie was talking about the ~50% portfolio drawdown that we’ll all go through at some point. 
 

Edited August 7, 2024 by MMM20

[Junior R]

Fairfax Financial automatic plan bought 8700 shares over $1549 during July...This wasn't included in the earnings... We should see them buy more at these prices 

 

 

[Junior R]

hard market is done so I think we should see big buy backs..

[mananainvesting]

Fairfax did some shopping! 

[SafetyinNumbers]

1 hour ago, Junior R said:

Fairfax Financial automatic plan bought 8700 shares over $1549 during July...This wasn't included in the earnings... We should see them buy more at these prices 

 

 

Looks like a 1550 top for the whole month. It doesn’t look like the stock trading under that price during the month except on those days FFH was active.

[Thrifty3000]

I thought it was perfectly obvious what's been driving FFH price action since Jul 31... 

 

 

On 7/31/2024 at 8:05 AM, Hoodlum said:

It look like IDBI decision is moving along with Fairfax India being the leading contender.  

 

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/banks/fairfax-likely-frontrunner-for-idbi-bank-stake-acquisition-12783559.html#google_vignette

 

 

[Junior R]

20 minutes ago, Thrifty3000 said:

I thought it was perfectly obvious what's been driving FFH price action since Jul 31... 

 

 

That's fairfax india lol not fairfax financial.