Fairfax 2024

[Malmqky]

Added for the first time in over a year on Monday as well. Probably added too much too soon, but that seems to be a reoccurring theme with my investments. Always too much too early, when I should be taking more of a DCA approach. Oh well, I have some cash so if things continue to drop I'll just buy a large chunk again.

[backtothebeach]

24 minutes ago, gfp said:

 

been just following it down

 

 

I'm most impressed with how you top ticked FIH.U !

[Paarslaars]

1 hour ago, hardcorevalue said:

Ha don’t count me out.

 

I’ve been adding too!

 

 

Same, FFH jumped back into my top 3 again.

[yqsun]

35 minutes ago, Paarslaars said:

 

Same, FFH jumped back into my top 3 again.

The market index appears quite weak. I plan to wait for a 20% drawdown in FFH to around C$1300 before adding more to my position. 

[Buffett_Groupie]

FFH share price gets no respect at all from good earnings report last week or sell-side analysts' consensus target price of C$2,000/share.

 

Well, simply let management buy back more shares at lower prices, right?

 

Without enduring the pain and suffering, any good results are underserving as Charlie Munger often said: "Why should it be easy to become rich? It isn't supposed to be easy. Anyone who finds it easy is stupid. The world isn't a crazy enough place yet to reward a bunch of underserving people."

 

"Life is a struggle." - Karl Marx

[Parsad]

1 hour ago, yqsun said:

The market index appears quite weak. I plan to wait for a 20% drawdown in FFH to around C$1300 before adding more to my position. 

 

It may or may not...I don't think it's going to hit $1300 CDN.  Think about it:

 

Current book is $980 USD.  They add another $70 USD in book by year-end...worst case scenario!  So $1050 USD book at year-end 2024.

 

Next year they will make around $175 USD per share...so $1225 USD book value at year-end 2025.

 

$1225 USD times 1.33 (assumes USD loses a bit of steam) = $1629 CDN...multiple of 1.25 = $2,036 CDN.

 

Those numbers are very realistic, conservative and means a 40% return by the end of 2025 or 25%+ annualized over 18 months.

 

Cheers!

[MMM20]

1 hour ago, Buffett_Groupie said:

Without enduring the pain and suffering, any good results are underserving as Charlie Munger often said: "Why should it be easy to become rich? It isn't supposed to be easy. Anyone who finds it easy is stupid. The world isn't a crazy enough place yet to reward a bunch of underserving people."

We are talking about a 10% ish drawdown. This happens like twice a year. If this is causing you pain and suffering, you’re probably too big in Fairfax.
 

I thought Charlie was talking about the ~50% portfolio drawdown that we’ll all go through at some point. 
 

Edited August 7, 2024 by MMM20

[Junior R]

Fairfax Financial automatic plan bought 8700 shares over $1549 during July...This wasn't included in the earnings... We should see them buy more at these prices 

 

 

[Junior R]

hard market is done so I think we should see big buy backs..

[mananainvesting]

Fairfax did some shopping! 

[SafetyinNumbers]

1 hour ago, Junior R said:

Fairfax Financial automatic plan bought 8700 shares over $1549 during July...This wasn't included in the earnings... We should see them buy more at these prices 

 

 

Looks like a 1550 top for the whole month. It doesn’t look like the stock trading under that price during the month except on those days FFH was active.

[Thrifty3000]

I thought it was perfectly obvious what's been driving FFH price action since Jul 31... 

 

 

On 7/31/2024 at 8:05 AM, Hoodlum said:

It look like IDBI decision is moving along with Fairfax India being the leading contender.  

 

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/banks/fairfax-likely-frontrunner-for-idbi-bank-stake-acquisition-12783559.html#google_vignette

 

 

[Junior R]

20 minutes ago, Thrifty3000 said:

I thought it was perfectly obvious what's been driving FFH price action since Jul 31... 

 

 

That's fairfax india lol not fairfax financial.

[Thrifty3000]

2 minutes ago, Junior R said:

That's fairfax india lol not fairfax financial.

I stand by it until someone posits a better explanation! Never forget, correlation is causation! 

[SafetyinNumbers]

21 minutes ago, Thrifty3000 said:

I thought it was perfectly obvious what's been driving FFH price action since Jul 31... 

 

 

The “bad” reasons why FFH is down in no particular order:

-IDBI deal

-ZZZ deal

- decline in the interest rate curve

 

Please add yours!

[SafetyinNumbers]

5 minutes ago, Junior R said:

That's fairfax india lol not fairfax financial.

It’s a $6b cheque. FFH will surely be contributing at least $1b.

[Junior R]

Just now, SafetyinNumbers said:

The “bad” reasons why FFH is down in no particular order:

-IDBI deal

-ZZZ deal

- decline in the interest rate curve

 

Please add yours!

People using FFH as cash and selling to buy other undervalued stocks that got beaten up

[Junior R]

5 minutes ago, SafetyinNumbers said:

It’s a $6b cheque. FFH will surely be contributing at least $1b.

Are you sure it's 6b? How is fairfax india even going come up with 5b lol

Edited August 8, 2024 by Junior R

[Thrifty3000]

1 minute ago, SafetyinNumbers said:

It’s a $6b cheque. FFH will surely be contributing at least $1b.

+1

Where might that $1b+ come from if they're using free cash to buy back stock.

[UK]

2 hours ago, SafetyinNumbers said:

The “bad” reasons why FFH is down in no particular order:

-IDBI deal

-ZZZ deal

- decline in the interest rate curve

 

Please add yours!

 

First two makes no sense to me and not even a news of the last week? But what do I know:). Third could be the real thing, as maybe also fears of the hurrucane season would, but other insurance stocks not going down as much (or at all). So this is either some noise, perhaps also low volume related or maybe there is a chance we could see a new "update" from MW, but why whould they not did this during silent period then? Maybe were busy deleting old tweets...It is tempting to buy some additional shares near BV:)

 

Edited August 8, 2024 by UK

[UK]

1 hour ago, Thrifty3000 said:

I stand by it until someone posits a better explanation! Never forget, correlation is causation! 

 

:)))

[UK]

1 hour ago, SafetyinNumbers said:

It’s a $6b cheque. FFH will surely be contributing at least $1b.

 

So another quarterly profit sized amount as with Sleep? And why should this be necessarily perceived as bad from the start?

[UK]

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2024-hot-oceans-hurricane-data/

 

This does not explain FFH vs other insurance stocks though...

[Parsad]

1 hour ago, Junior R said:

Are you sure it's 6b? How is fairfax india even going come up with 5b lol

 

Market cap is 6,000 crore or about $1B CDN...so 51% would be $510M.  Add a premium and you are looking at max $750M CDN for 51%.  Cheers!  

[gfp]

9 minutes ago, Parsad said:

 

Market cap is 6,000 crore or about $1B CDN...so 51% would be $510M.  Add a premium and you are looking at max $750M CDN for 51%.  Cheers!  

 

What??  Aren't we talking about IDBI bank here?  Almost $12 Billion USD market cap?  51% would be $6 Billion USD