Jump to content

Learning from Michael Burry


ExpectedValue
 Share

Recommended Posts

I know that many of you have already read Michael Lewis' Vanity Fair article Betting on The Blind Side, The Big Short or The Greatest Trade Ever which all feature Michael Burry of Scion Capital.

 

I saw that Burry's posts from Silicon Investor were still available and went through them. I found it to be a really interesting evolution of a value investor and think some of you might enjoy it:

 

http://streetcapitalist.com/2010/03/24/learning-from-michael-burry/

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Nice rundown, TariqAli. I really enjoyed the discussion about shorting. Looking back on many of the casualties of the credit crisis, Burry is right on in saying that you don't have to be the first short. David Einhorn could have slept a lot better had he waited until 2008 to short ALD. The market seems to resist bad news before capitulating.

 

It's also interesting that Burry thought that he "read way too much." It may have been tongue in cheek, but it's still a great point about the primacy of the editing process. Sometimes when Warren Buffett appears on T.V., the pundits assume that he knows every detail of his companies, but if you listen closely he focuses upon crucial facts. Edit, edit, edit.

 

We are lucky that the silicon investor thread spans years. You get to see the evolving skills of a few smart people, as well as the group dynamics of people who formed an internet community near the inception of such communities. The Reggie Middleton posts are especially interesting, in that they demonstrate how otherwise rational investors sometimes derail their goals for non-economic reasons. It almost became more important to be "right" than to make money.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 1 month later...

Looks like all the recent attention resulted in an updated home page for Scion Capital: http://scioncapital.com/index.html

 

Including a link to Burry's "2006 Q4 RMBS CDS Primer and FAQ": http://scioncapital.com/PDFs/Scion%202006%204Q%20RMBS%20CDS%20Primer%20and%20FAQ.pdf

 

And a recommendation of Bo Shan, presumably of Gobi Capital (gobicap.com), who Burry invested with:

 

"Dr. Burry suggests accredited and qualified investors contact Bo Shan (bo.shan@gobicap.com), a former analyst at Scion Capital and an investor in Dr. Burry’s mold.  Dr. Burry has no interest, financial or otherwise, in Bo’s firm. Dr. Burry is simply an investor in Bo’s fund and strongly believes in his abilities."

 

I wonder if anyone is familiar with the name?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Bo is also 27, just got his MBA from Wharton in August 2009, just opened this fund in late 2009. In his background(search investment advisor registration ADV and you will find all about Gobi Capital) he had to go back to high school experience.  So his Scion experience was 18 months between undergrad and Wharton.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

My understanding is that he actually worked for Scion while he was an undergrad as well.  

 

And on age, I would add that a large percentage of great investors form their own partnerships well before they are 30.... Buffett, Klarman, Rainwater, Lampert, Ackman etc.  

 

Many many many more poor investors also formed partnerships before they turned 30

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 1 year later...

A couple more blog posts about Michael Burry that I found interesting:

 

- Reading Michael Burry: http://robertpiomolloy.com/blog/?p=94

- Michael Burry’s Value Investors Club Ideas Revealed: http://robertpiomolloy.com/blog/?p=130

 

The second one is very interesting, as it does seem that michael99 on VIC was indeed Michael Burry. Going through those VIC ideas and reading his reasoning, especially in the comments is pretty interesting. More interesting is that It looks like that most of his VIC ideas didn't work out, except for Industrias Bachoco and GTSI. I may be wrong, as most of them were either bought out, or were otherwise liquidated since then. Pillowtex idea is probably the most interesting, as it imploded almost immediately after posting, and subsequent comments are a good read.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 years later...

A couple more blog posts about Michael Burry that I found interesting:

 

- Reading Michael Burry: http://robertpiomolloy.com/blog/?p=94

- Michael Burry’s Value Investors Club Ideas Revealed: http://robertpiomolloy.com/blog/?p=130

 

The second one is very interesting, as it does seem that michael99 on VIC was indeed Michael Burry. Going through those VIC ideas and reading his reasoning, especially in the comments is pretty interesting. More interesting is that It looks like that most of his VIC ideas didn't work out, except for Industrias Bachoco and GTSI. I may be wrong, as most of them were either bought out, or were otherwise liquidated since then. Pillowtex idea is probably the most interesting, as it imploded almost immediately after posting, and subsequent comments are a good read.

 

The blogs are defunct. Anyone saved a copy?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

A couple more blog posts about Michael Burry that I found interesting:

 

- Reading Michael Burry: http://robertpiomolloy.com/blog/?p=94

- Michael Burry’s Value Investors Club Ideas Revealed: http://robertpiomolloy.com/blog/?p=130

 

The second one is very interesting, as it does seem that michael99 on VIC was indeed Michael Burry. Going through those VIC ideas and reading his reasoning, especially in the comments is pretty interesting. More interesting is that It looks like that most of his VIC ideas didn't work out, except for Industrias Bachoco and GTSI. I may be wrong, as most of them were either bought out, or were otherwise liquidated since then. Pillowtex idea is probably the most interesting, as it imploded almost immediately after posting, and subsequent comments are a good read.

 

The blogs are defunct. Anyone saved a copy?

 

Might be able to find it on Archive.org. F.ex, here's a snapshot from 2010:

 

https://web.archive.org/web/20101202022255/http://robertpiomolloy.com/blog/

Link to comment
Share on other sites

A couple more blog posts about Michael Burry that I found interesting:

 

- Reading Michael Burry: http://robertpiomolloy.com/blog/?p=94

- Michael Burry’s Value Investors Club Ideas Revealed: http://robertpiomolloy.com/blog/?p=130

 

The second one is very interesting, as it does seem that michael99 on VIC was indeed Michael Burry. Going through those VIC ideas and reading his reasoning, especially in the comments is pretty interesting. More interesting is that It looks like that most of his VIC ideas didn't work out, except for Industrias Bachoco and GTSI. I may be wrong, as most of them were either bought out, or were otherwise liquidated since then. Pillowtex idea is probably the most interesting, as it imploded almost immediately after posting, and subsequent comments are a good read.

 

The blogs are defunct. Anyone saved a copy?

 

Might be able to find it on Archive.org. F.ex, here's a snapshot from 2010:

 

https://web.archive.org/web/20101202022255/http://robertpiomolloy.com/blog/

 

Thanks Liberty, this is really cool.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

A couple more blog posts about Michael Burry that I found interesting:

 

- Reading Michael Burry: http://robertpiomolloy.com/blog/?p=94

- Michael Burry’s Value Investors Club Ideas Revealed: http://robertpiomolloy.com/blog/?p=130

 

The second one is very interesting, as it does seem that michael99 on VIC was indeed Michael Burry. Going through those VIC ideas and reading his reasoning, especially in the comments is pretty interesting. More interesting is that It looks like that most of his VIC ideas didn't work out, except for Industrias Bachoco and GTSI. I may be wrong, as most of them were either bought out, or were otherwise liquidated since then. Pillowtex idea is probably the most interesting, as it imploded almost immediately after posting, and subsequent comments are a good read.

 

The blogs are defunct. Anyone saved a copy?

 

Might be able to find it on Archive.org. F.ex, here's a snapshot from 2010:

 

https://web.archive.org/web/20101202022255/http://robertpiomolloy.com/blog/

 

Great stuff.  Thanks for posting.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

He didn't calculate ratios like EV/EBITDA or do writeup like in VIC.

 

Paragraph 4 on page 2;

"How do I determine the discount? I usually focus on free cash flow and enterprise value (market capitalization less cash plus debt). I will screen through large numbers of companies by looking at the enterprise value/EBITDA ratio"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

paragraph 9, page 2 of pdf

 

As for when to buy, I mix some barebones technical analysis into my strategy -a tool held over from my days as a commodities trader.

 

When was he a comodities trader?

 

I think he was doing it on a non-professional level - trend following type of trades.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...