SharperDingaan Posted January 17, 2018 Posted January 17, 2018 Is this a good time to buy Bitcoin? What price would you say? Do you have a preference of Bitcoin versus Ether? Read from around page 12 onwards. The inference is only buy in a collapse, only buy Bitcoin, and it'll be your kids who collect https://s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/john-pfeffer/An+Investor%27s+Take+on+Cryptoassets+v6.pdf SD
rkbabang Posted January 18, 2018 Author Posted January 18, 2018 Is this a good time to buy Bitcoin? What price would you say? Do you have a preference of Bitcoin versus Ether? Read from around page 12 onwards. The inference is only buy in a collapse, only buy Bitcoin, and it'll be your kids who collect https://s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/john-pfeffer/An+Investor%27s+Take+on+Cryptoassets+v6.pdf +1 Anyone who hasn't read that paper yet, do not invest in any crypto assets until you have read it. BTW. I bought some more Bitcoin yesterday.
mrholty Posted January 18, 2018 Posted January 18, 2018 http://hackingdistributed.com/2018/01/15/decentralization-bitcoin-ethereum/ Both Bitcoin and Ethereum mining are very centralized, with the top four miners in Bitcoin and the top three miners in Ethereum controlling more than 50% of the hash rate. The entire blockchain for both systems is determined by fewer than 20 mining entities [4]. Is this correct ??? https://blockchain.info/pools?timespan=4days The big ones are mining pools, some have tens of thousands of members each of whom can switch pools or start mining on their own with a couple of keystrokes. They also all know each other. Distributed 'security' as advertised doesn't really exist; you're really relying on 'inertia' and self interest ( the fact that the 'craze' is worth much more to everyone if nobody screws the pooch, and the 'ethos' that you don't take your money out). Nothing wrong in that (everyone eventually grows up), but it's a different way of thinking. SD I owned Bitcoin back 5 years ago and sold out after 9 months because it volatility was too much for me. I got interested because of the Silk Road in 2012 and sold before Ullrich got caught. Back then the sellers on Silk Road didn't like it because they preferred a stable currency. I bought/sold through Mt. Gox which shut down later and it took weeks on both sides to set up an account/ get my cash. A few summers ago work took me to China and I spent a lot of time with a few small(ish) business owners that were looking to retire as there were fears of corruption crackdowns as some of the heads of the biggest companies were arrested on their drive home from their towers. These guys were small scale distributors and these actions killed their business by 75% overnight as they waited to see what else would happen. Two of the guys told me that their plan had been to set up a "business" in Canada (Vancouver). Then use the business to buy an asset (house) paid for by the business. Then wait 2 years and sell the house at a loss (10-20%) but it was a way to get around the currency controls. But they had started to hear about Bitcoin as a way to get their money out without doing it via asset purchases. These mining groups are in China due to the huge subsidization of power to create domestic industry which makes their ability to mine (which updates the distributed ledgers) and due to these huge draws I guarantee that China will look to eliminate (reduce) it. RKbabang - Have you downloaded the software to have a ledger on your computer. I did back in 2012 and it took over 3 days to download and setup. (yes speeds were lower but I expect that due its growth the time would still be long). I used it to "mine" for a few weeks - got a little. The infrastructure is more fragile than most people think. (That said - I think there are uses for BlockChain tech but the coins feel like gambling).
JimBowerman Posted January 18, 2018 Posted January 18, 2018 Is this a good time to buy Bitcoin? What price would you say? Do you have a preference of Bitcoin versus Ether? Read from around page 12 onwards. The inference is only buy in a collapse, only buy Bitcoin, and it'll be your kids who collect https://s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/john-pfeffer/An+Investor%27s+Take+on+Cryptoassets+v6.pdf SD interesting paper, but here's a slight critique which i'd agree with https://medium.com/@elliotolds/thought-provoking-paper-but-it-seems-to-be-using-the-equation-of-exchange-incorrectly-25f3148b85ea Also, thinking outloud about potential markets....If (big if/wildly unrealistic) bitcoin were to become a functional currency. Assume population increases at 1% a year, and productivity increases at 2% a year. With a fixed supply currency, each unit of currency appreciates 3% a year in real terms. Folks assume that gold had this property, but during the gold standard, prices (CPI) remained flat from 1800 to 1900. This would imply that gold discoveries matched this productivity + population growth number (ie gold supply was not fixed but was rising 3% a year using numbers in this example). With bitcoin, the CPI would've DEflated at 3% a year from 1800 to 1900. Various Scenarios: 3% inflation (Money Supply increases 6% a year in nominal terms) - Most modern day economies CPI in 1800 = 100 CPI in 1900 = 1800 0% Inflation (Money supply increases at 3% a year) - 19th century Gold Standard CPI in 1800 = 100 CPI in 1900 = 100 Bitcoin (Fixed Supply) CPI in 1800 = 100 CPI in 1900 = 5 leads to the potential conclusion that potential market for bitcoin is not just world M2 money supply but also other government "near monies"...ie all treasuries that yield less than 3%/inflation rate? Anyone have a good source on $ amount of bonds oustanding world wide by yield? As I recall total M2 for the entire world is $90T and government debt outstanding is $80T or so ($170 T) in total. Obviously under even the most rosy scenarios, bitcoin only takes over a small fraction of that, but interesting to think about. I had always only looked at M2, but seems that government debt should be included in these calcs the more I think about it. Probably oversimplistic/unrealistic, but interesting thought experiment...
rkbabang Posted January 18, 2018 Author Posted January 18, 2018 http://hackingdistributed.com/2018/01/15/decentralization-bitcoin-ethereum/ Both Bitcoin and Ethereum mining are very centralized, with the top four miners in Bitcoin and the top three miners in Ethereum controlling more than 50% of the hash rate. The entire blockchain for both systems is determined by fewer than 20 mining entities [4]. Is this correct ??? https://blockchain.info/pools?timespan=4days The big ones are mining pools, some have tens of thousands of members each of whom can switch pools or start mining on their own with a couple of keystrokes. They also all know each other. Distributed 'security' as advertised doesn't really exist; you're really relying on 'inertia' and self interest ( the fact that the 'craze' is worth much more to everyone if nobody screws the pooch, and the 'ethos' that you don't take your money out). Nothing wrong in that (everyone eventually grows up), but it's a different way of thinking. SD I owned Bitcoin back 5 years ago and sold out after 9 months because it volatility was too much for me. I got interested because of the Silk Road in 2012 and sold before Ullrich got caught. Back then the sellers on Silk Road didn't like it because they preferred a stable currency. I bought/sold through Mt. Gox which shut down later and it took weeks on both sides to set up an account/ get my cash. A few summers ago work took me to China and I spent a lot of time with a few small(ish) business owners that were looking to retire as there were fears of corruption crackdowns as some of the heads of the biggest companies were arrested on their drive home from their towers. These guys were small scale distributors and these actions killed their business by 75% overnight as they waited to see what else would happen. Two of the guys told me that their plan had been to set up a "business" in Canada (Vancouver). Then use the business to buy an asset (house) paid for by the business. Then wait 2 years and sell the house at a loss (10-20%) but it was a way to get around the currency controls. But they had started to hear about Bitcoin as a way to get their money out without doing it via asset purchases. These mining groups are in China due to the huge subsidization of power to create domestic industry which makes their ability to mine (which updates the distributed ledgers) and due to these huge draws I guarantee that China will look to eliminate (reduce) it. RKbabang - Have you downloaded the software to have a ledger on your computer. I did back in 2012 and it took over 3 days to download and setup. (yes speeds were lower but I expect that due its growth the time would still be long). I used it to "mine" for a few weeks - got a little. The infrastructure is more fragile than most people think. (That said - I think there are uses for BlockChain tech but the coins feel like gambling). I did actually download the whole thing back around when you did. I even tried to mine, but after a day or two with nothing to show for it I gave up. I didn't join a pool, I was just using my own computer with $40 video card, it would have taken me forever to solve a block, I was just wasting electricity. It took a long time to download the blockchain, but you only have to do it once. Also I have 400Mbps internet access now, so downloading it again would be doable if I wanted to run a node. I didn't actually buy any back then, but I looked into it. I should have.
sjh Posted January 18, 2018 Posted January 18, 2018 Is this a good time to buy Bitcoin? What price would you say? Do you have a preference of Bitcoin versus Ether? Read from around page 12 onwards. The inference is only buy in a collapse, only buy Bitcoin, and it'll be your kids who collect https://s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/john-pfeffer/An+Investor%27s+Take+on+Cryptoassets+v6.pdf SD interesting paper, but here's a slight critique which i'd agree with https://medium.com/@elliotolds/thought-provoking-paper-but-it-seems-to-be-using-the-equation-of-exchange-incorrectly-25f3148b85ea " Suppose through a brilliant PR campaign I convince people to use this ledger and engage in $1,000,000,000 worth of transactions in a year, despite its low security. Suppose also that V=5. What is the token value for my ledger? My model says $2,000,000 per coin, yours says $2,000. Let’s assume your calculation is right. How could it be possible for a token with value $2,000 and velocity 5 to support a billion dollars worth of transactions in a year?" I think he misses the point.The paper doesn't say that the price must always be exactly what the formular says. But the VALUE of the network is what the formular calculates. Of course the market cap of a given crypto currency can fluctuate, but the intrinsic value will stay the same.
rkbabang Posted January 19, 2018 Author Posted January 19, 2018 What is the cost of manufacturing of a bitcoin? Would that price be a signal of rock bottom price on it? I read that one could store a bitcoin on a wallet like Jaxx in case the exchange goes under. Can't the app for a wallet disappear too? or one could chose to store the same code on multiple devices? https://www.npr.org/2018/01/18/578800271/finding-your-lost-bitcoins The HD wallets like Jaxx follow a standard. You can take your 12 word backup phrase from your Jaxx wallet and restore it on Exodus for example. Also you can list all of the private keys in Jaxx and write them down and restore them on any wallet software. Your Jaxx and wallets like it interact with the blockchain, but they don't store your Bitcoin. Your Bitcoin lives on the blockchain and any software can be used to access them. Jaxx can disappear tomorrow and I would not lose any of the Bitcoin that I have stored in my Jaxx wallet. The particular software you use to view your bitcoins or to spend them doesn't matter. What matters, and the only thing that matters, is that you know either your 12 word backup phrase or all of your private keys.
SharperDingaan Posted January 19, 2018 Posted January 19, 2018 What is the cost of manufacturing of a bitcoin? Would that price be a signal of rock bottom price on it? I read that one could store a bitcoin on a wallet like Jaxx in case the exchange goes under. Can't the app for a wallet disappear too? or one could chose to store the same code on multiple devices? https://www.npr.org/2018/01/18/578800271/finding-your-lost-bitcoins The HD wallets like Jaxx follow a standard. You can take your 12 word backup phrase from your Jaxx wallet and restore it on Exodus for example. Also you can list all of the private keys in Jaxx and write them down and restore them on any wallet software. Your Jaxx and wallets like it interact with the blockchain, but they don't store your Bitcoin. Your Bitcoin lives on the blockchain and any software can be used to access them. Jaxx can disappear tomorrow and I would not lose any of the Bitcoin that I have stored in my Jaxx wallet. The particular software you use to view your bitcoins or to spend them doesn't matter. What matters, and the only thing that matters, is that you know either your 12 word backup phrase or all of your private keys. The smartest thing you can do with these is write your code on a slip of paper, store it in your safety deposit box, and ensure that you clear your browser every time you finish accessing your digital wallet. The easiest way to steal token is to simply read (electronically) your device, the easiest way to do that is via malware you've accidentally downloaded. SD
KCLarkin Posted January 19, 2018 Posted January 19, 2018 Spent a couple hours studying cryptocurrencies and my brain feels the same way as when I studied the Efficient Market Hypothesis in my MBA. A bunch of real smart people suffering from a mass delusion. A libertarian fever dream mixed with some of the most elegant ponzi schemes ever devised. GLTA.
wachtwoord Posted January 19, 2018 Posted January 19, 2018 Spent a couple hours studying cryptocurrencies and my brain feels the same way as when I studied the Efficient Market Hypothesis in my MBA. A bunch of real smart people suffering from a mass delusion. Exactly how I feel about fiat currency. But then extend the (far larger) group of smart people with a whole bunch of stupid and mediocre ones.
KCLarkin Posted January 19, 2018 Posted January 19, 2018 Exactly how I feel about fiat currency. I don't think many smart people are deluded by fiat currency. Most know that one of the safest currencies, US Dollar, has lost 90% of its value over the last 100 years. Many others have lost 100%.
vinod1 Posted January 19, 2018 Posted January 19, 2018 A week ago, I was helping a relative to come home after surgery. He was given general anesthesia for the procedure. As I was picking him up, all he can talk about is crypto-currencies. It seems he was talking to the nurses about it as well while is is half awake. The entire 30 minute drive home is talk about Ripple and that it has a very good potential and that I should look into it. My relative has shown the least bit of interest in investing over the last several years. I would implore him to get started with investments and he has never shown any interest. Now his wife tells me that instead of playing with his less than year old baby, he would be looking at all these charts about Ripple on his computer. As I took a quick look, crypto-currencies to me is close to a certainty as one can get in investing, that it is a bubble. Crypto-currencies are of course wonderful inventions and are of great use - for drug dealers and terrorists. All it takes is one terrorist attack financed using crypto-currencies for governments to crack down hard on these. Vinod
KCLarkin Posted January 19, 2018 Posted January 19, 2018 Crypto-currencies are of course wonderful inventions and are of great use - for drug dealers and terrorists. This is really the bull case. If the economy for criminals, terrorists, tax evaders, and money launderers is large enough (and it is), some of these tokens might actually have value as currencies. But which token will become the fiat currency of the underworld? There is a pretty good chance it hasn't even been invented yet. Are we still at the Napster stage of digital currencies?
wachtwoord Posted January 19, 2018 Posted January 19, 2018 Exactly how I feel about fiat currency. I don't think many smart people are deluded by fiat currency. Most know that one of the safest currencies, US Dollar, has lost 90% of its value over the last 100 years. Many others have lost 100%. I think you're very wrong on that one. Either that or you are far far stricter in your use of the term 'smart' than the generally accepted use of the term.
SharperDingaan Posted January 19, 2018 Posted January 19, 2018 Crypto-currencies are of course wonderful inventions and are of great use - for drug dealers and terrorists. This is really the bull case. If the economy for criminals, terrorists, tax evaders, and money launderers is large enough (and it is), some of these tokens might actually have value as currencies. But which token will become the fiat currency of the underworld? There is a pretty good chance it hasn't even been invented yet. Are we still at the Napster stage of digital currencies? Amusingly they have the same problem as you and I. You and I know that the fiat currency in our hand is devaluing all the time - because more bills are being printed. The underground can only buy certain currencies, but if the price of those currencies keeps falling over time - their holdings become worth less and less. 'Devaluation' by another means. SD
KCLarkin Posted January 19, 2018 Posted January 19, 2018 I think you're very wrong on that one. Either that or you are far far stricter in your use of the term 'smart' than the generally accepted use of the term. Anyone I'd consider 'smart' economically would surely be aware of hyperinflation in Germany, Zimbabwe, and Venezuela. Let's use The Economist as the dividing line for "smart". If you've ever subscribed to The Economist (or read it cover-to-cover regularly), you are likely aware of the dangers of fiat currency. BTW, any 'smart' investor should read this article: http://fortune.com/2011/06/12/buffett-how-inflation-swindles-the-equity-investor-fortune-classics-1977/
rkbabang Posted January 19, 2018 Author Posted January 19, 2018 Crypto-currencies are of course wonderful inventions and are of great use - for drug dealers and terrorists. This is really the bull case. If the economy for criminals, terrorists, tax evaders, and money launderers is large enough (and it is), some of these tokens might actually have value as currencies. But which token will become the fiat currency of the underworld? There is a pretty good chance it hasn't even been invented yet. Are we still at the Napster stage of digital currencies? Yes, way back before that damn Satoshi published his paper criminals, terrorist, tax evaders, and money launderers didn't exist. There was just no way for them to apply their craft and trade. Obviously I'm joking, so don't worry, I'm sure the majority of criminals, terrorists, tax evaders, and money launderers will continue using the USD just as they always have for a long time to come.
hobbit Posted January 19, 2018 Posted January 19, 2018 what is stopping anyone from launching 100s of bitcoin like currencies..?
KCLarkin Posted January 19, 2018 Posted January 19, 2018 Yes, way back before that damn Satoshi published his paper criminals, terrorist, tax evaders, and money launderers didn't exist. There was just no way for them to apply their craft and trade. Obviously I'm joking, so don't worry, I'm sure the majority of criminals, terrorists, tax evaders, and money launderers will continue using the USD just as they always have for a long time to come. I said this was the BULL CASE. I'm not saying cryptocurrencies will increase crime (though there are some crimes like ransomware that would be pretty tricky). But if you look at legitimate reasons why someone would want to use Bitcoin rather than USD as a currency, they are almost all illegal (for example evading capital controls). Getting back to my original post, this is the libertarian fever dream. If you have a decentralized currency, the government loses its power. Anyways, this will be the last time I post about "crypto" and hopefully the last time I ever think about it.
Liberty Posted January 19, 2018 Posted January 19, 2018 https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/jan/18/bitcoin-fluctuations-ransomware-cybercrminals-malware-developers
Aberhound Posted January 19, 2018 Posted January 19, 2018 Crypto-currencies are of course wonderful inventions and are of great use - for drug dealers and terrorists. This is really the bull case. If the economy for criminals, terrorists, tax evaders, and money launderers is large enough (and it is), some of these tokens might actually have value as currencies. But which token will become the fiat currency of the underworld? There is a pretty good chance it hasn't even been invented yet. Are we still at the Napster stage of digital currencies? This is why I don't think there will be a Fedcoin. If there is a Fedcoin then politics means that eventually the government drug dealer and terrorism ops will come out just like we are now finding out about ISIS. I think instead there will be private cryptos, some of them set up by intelligence agencies or their friends. It is part of the trend of changing from the public wave to the private wave. When computers record everything it is no longer possible to have big government with big secrets. It will be much safer to have small government and big secrets hidden among millions of private companies.
SharperDingaan Posted January 19, 2018 Posted January 19, 2018 Crypto-currencies are of course wonderful inventions and are of great use - for drug dealers and terrorists. This is really the bull case. If the economy for criminals, terrorists, tax evaders, and money launderers is large enough (and it is), some of these tokens might actually have value as currencies. But which token will become the fiat currency of the underworld? There is a pretty good chance it hasn't even been invented yet. Are we still at the Napster stage of digital currencies? This is why I don't think there will be a Fedcoin. If there is a Fedcoin then politics means that eventually the government drug dealer and terrorism ops will come out just like we are now finding out about ISIS. I think instead there will be private cryptos, some of them set up by intelligence agencies or their friends. It is part of the trend of changing from the public wave to the private wave. When computers record everything it is no longer possible to have big government with big secrets. It will be much safer to have small government and big secrets hidden among millions of private companies. The beauty of the Bitcoin is that nobody could possibly have come up with a better 'store of value' for the underground economy; and the more distrusted 'big brother' is, the better this works! (the libertarian dream). The more 'mainstream' it becomes, the more valuable it becomes as well - as the greater variety and quantity of 'scum' produce network effects. http://www.starwars.com/video/my-kind-of-scum. The more obvious 'containment' is the creation of ONE single direct CB competitor to Bitcoin, that 'rules them all' (other private currencies). Fearless and inventive! SD
clutch Posted January 20, 2018 Posted January 20, 2018 Spent a couple hours studying cryptocurrencies and my brain feels the same way as when I studied the Efficient Market Hypothesis in my MBA. A bunch of real smart people suffering from a mass delusion. A libertarian fever dream mixed with some of the most elegant ponzi schemes ever devised. GLTA. To crypto bulls, you probably look like this: (i'm joking here; take it lightly)
rkbabang Posted January 20, 2018 Author Posted January 20, 2018 Spent a couple hours studying cryptocurrencies and my brain feels the same way as when I studied the Efficient Market Hypothesis in my MBA. A bunch of real smart people suffering from a mass delusion. A libertarian fever dream mixed with some of the most elegant ponzi schemes ever devised. GLTA. To crypto bulls, you probably look like this: (i'm joking here; take it lightly) I would think that is more a representation of people who still don’t get it. Funny story. My son just build his own gaming computer (an i7 7700k with a 1070 ti video card) and I was telling him last night that he should try to mine some altcoins and earn some of his money back. My wife said, “so if he starts mining, how does he get his check?”.
roughlyright Posted January 20, 2018 Posted January 20, 2018 RKbabang, What altcoins are you bullish on? do you care to share your thesis on the coin which is your highest conviction idea?
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