james22 Posted November 22 Posted November 22 I've no idea what the top might be, or even if there'll be another cycle. I'll trim when there are no catalysts upcoming or (more likely) because I've no reason to keep playing.
backtothebeach Posted November 22 Posted November 22 Possible timing system for the sell decision by Jim (mungofitch): https://www.shrewdm.com/MB?pid=579967243
Dave86ch Posted November 22 Posted November 22 I will probably hold it forever and leverage opportunities to earn interest on it.
Cod Liver Oil Posted November 22 Posted November 22 (edited) When a bitcoin entrepreneur buys a $6 million banana and eats it. Not sure if this is peak something. https://fortune.com/2024/11/21/justin-sun-tron-comedian-banana-artwork-sothebys-elon-musk-space/ Edited November 22 by Cod Liver Oil
SharperDingaan Posted November 22 Posted November 22 The 'tops' thing ..... It's a casino folks. The house is ultimately going to win so long as you keep the accumulating pile of increasingly valuable chips on the table; you need to do systematic material withdrawals, and put the proceeds somewhere. London/Paris/New-York/Milan Grade-A real-estate! No different to commodities; get your original investment back as soon you can, play with just the house money, and always keep the withdrawals in something useful/safe. The cycle reverses .... you still live. SD
wachtwoord Posted November 22 Posted November 22 4 minutes ago, SharperDingaan said: The 'tops' thing ..... It's a casino folks. The house is ultimately going to win so long as you keep the accumulating pile of increasingly valuable chips on the table; you need to do systematic material withdrawals, and put the proceeds somewhere. London/Paris/New-York/Milan Grade-A real-estate! No different to commodities; get your original investment back as soon you can, play with just the house money, and always keep the withdrawals in something useful/safe. The cycle reverses .... you still live. SD But Bitcoin is the "something useful/safe"
TwoCitiesCapital Posted November 23 Posted November 23 6 hours ago, SharperDingaan said: The 'tops' thing ..... It's a casino folks. The house is ultimately going to win so long as you keep the accumulating pile of increasingly valuable chips on the table; you need to do systematic material withdrawals, and put the proceeds somewhere. The history of Bitcoin thus far is those who've simply held, even through bear markets, have eventually outperformed basically every alternative. Sounds like Bitcoin holders are the house? 5 hours ago, wachtwoord said: But Bitcoin is the "something useful/safe" You'd be hard pressed to find anything with a better 3-, 5-, or 10- year return profile or a better sharpe ratio. Seems pretty useful and safe to me as long as you have a sufficiently long time horizon....which is true of any "safe" stock as well.
SharperDingaan Posted November 23 Posted November 23 (edited) Agreed BTC is great, but to survive the adverse volatility we also need diversifying assets. Trading gains need to go into something else of value, with a low correlation to BTC. That something else could be everyday spending, but if you do well, you really need somewhere else to put it; that expensive house in the world's major cities. Critically, one either solves this .... or risks being the next drug junkie; most seem to fail at it. Alternatively, one could just accept the volatility. Just keep in mind that that the $100K draw-down is a whole lot different to the $1M one; T-Bills are a great pillow, but the losses cannot be as easily ignored. They are also a lot easier to tolerate if you are looking out from your Greek island villa. When commodity prices are rising everyone is a hero; not so much when there are the inevitable downdrafts. SD Edited November 23 by SharperDingaan
james22 Posted November 23 Posted November 23 2 hours ago, SharperDingaan said: Alternatively, one could just accept the volatility. Just keep in mind that that the $100K drawdown is a whole lot different to the $1M one . . . Down $2.3M Thursday and only shrugged. It does change you: the $1M drawdown becomes no different than $100K.
SharperDingaan Posted November 23 Posted November 23 1 hour ago, james22 said: It does change you: the $1M drawdown becomes no different than $100K. I was thinking more of "The Princess and the Pea". The true princess is not going to sleep well, no matter how thick her pillow and mattresses are with T-Bills https://interestingliterature.com/2018/11/a-summary-and-analysis-of-the-princess-and-the-pea-fairy-tale/ SD
backtothebeach Posted November 23 Posted November 23 5 hours ago, james22 said: Down $2.3M Thursday and only shrugged. It does change you: the $1M drawdown becomes no different than $100K. Hope you have a couple of mil set aside just in case. I can't help but remember my brother, who, at age 22, managed to get some shares in an IPO in the dot.com era which 100x'ed. His investment went from 5000 to 500000 - life changing money, enough to buy a house. I told him various time on the way up to sell half and minimize regret, but he wouldn't. 24 years later with two kids and he still rents.
james22 Posted November 23 Posted November 23 4 minutes ago, backtothebeach said: Hope you have a couple of mil set aside just in case. I can't help but remember my brother, who, at age 22, managed to get some shares in an IPO in the dot.com era which 100x'ed. His investment went from 5000 to 500000 - life changing money, enough to buy a house. I told him various time on the way up to sell half and minimize regret, but he wouldn't. 24 years later with two kids and he still rents. Ouch. I'm good though.
james22 Posted November 23 Posted November 23 On 11/22/2024 at 2:16 PM, SharperDingaan said: The 'tops' thing ..... It's a casino folks. The house is ultimately going to win so long as you keep the accumulating pile of increasingly valuable chips on the table; you need to do systematic material withdrawals, and put the proceeds somewhere.
Dave86ch Posted November 24 Posted November 24 11 hours ago, james22 said: Bitcoin fosters a shift in mentality among a small group of plebs, enabling a significant wealth transfer while potentially avoiding insurrection. From a cultural standpoint, it's fascinating to be part of this movement.
james22 Posted November 24 Posted November 24 2 hours ago, Dave86ch said: From a cultural standpoint, it's fascinating to be part of this movement. From a historical standpoint, it's a fascinating time to live and witness the switch from 5,000 years of physical gold to digital bitcoin. Just baffling to me that (seemingly) so many of those who lived pre-computer/internet and witnessed all the digital transformations since, resist this latest. Or maybe it's just finance types? Unlike everyone else, did research librarians resist Google?
Fly Posted November 24 Posted November 24 1 hour ago, james22 said: From a historical standpoint, it's a fascinating time to live and witness the switch from 5,000 years of physical gold to digital bitcoin. Just baffling to me that (seemingly) so many of those who lived pre-computer/internet and witnessed all the digital transformations since, resist this latest. Or maybe it's just finance types? Unlike everyone else, did research librarians resist Google? I think the finance types carry a lot more cultural influence than we give them credit for. That pivot will accelerate when financial journalists/media really get onboard with bitcoin.
james22 Posted November 24 Posted November 24 Just now, Fly said: I think the finance types carry a lot more cultural influence than we give them credit for. Not just cultural influence, but actual control. All my friends use financial advisors. I suggest they consider a 5% allocation to bitcoin. Their advisors shoot it down. The end. Shopkeepers might have been unhappy about the digital transformation of retail (Amazon), but they couldn't resist it like financial advisors can.
SharperDingaan Posted November 24 Posted November 24 (edited) Crypto culture thing .... The media sells the BTC story, and BTC celebrity, 'cause there is no other product; it can't sell BTC-ETF's as wealth management doesn't yet support 5% allocation to BTC. It's also a hard sell as there's no cash flow to support a valuation; hence any kind of 'story' is really just more entertainment in a popularity contest. Too big to be ignored, columnists are forced to write about it ... but it's a low return 'investment' Talking about BTC at USD 100K+ is great, but counter productive. In the real word, 100K will fund the down payment on a house being renovated for a flip, and the entire industry built around house flipping. Why flip houses when you could NET as much, with much less effort, simply trading BTC instead? Should BTC reach USD 250K are you going to buy the coin, or buy a (mortgage free?) house instead? Last time we had things hit the housing market, we had the GFC and it didn't go well. Last time we had Icelandic fisherman studying investment finance in quantity, it didn't go well. There is no reason to think that this will go well either ... but there is very good reason to think that this will also crest; and at around 300-400K/BTC if you believe in cycles. So what? We're trying to value a mania, there are a lot of things pushing it, and it's unlikely to end well. If you want to be the next JP Morgan, you need a way by which to keep the funny money .... when the sh1te inevitably eventually hits the fan. In the meantime ... it's a hell of a ride. GLTA. SD Edited November 24 by SharperDingaan
Dave86ch Posted November 25 Posted November 25 20 hours ago, james22 said: From a historical standpoint, it's a fascinating time to live and witness the switch from 5,000 years of physical gold to digital bitcoin. Just baffling to me that (seemingly) so many of those who lived pre-computer/internet and witnessed all the digital transformations since, resist this latest. Or maybe it's just finance types? Unlike everyone else, did research librarians resist Google? Most people are consensus-driven. They don't realize it, but every time a person with influence supports a new technology, they act as a kind of "priest," guiding the masses to accept a shift in the Overton Window. Eventually, the public adopts the new reality without critically considering the intermediary process that led to its normalization.
james22 Posted November 25 Posted November 25 Scenes From a Regional Branch at $97,000 We gotta talk. Okay, talk. These MARA orders aren’t marked unsolicited. Neither are the MSTR buys. They’re not unsolicited. I solicited. Hard. John. I don’t care. I’m not waiting. I asked you guys for three years to help me with this. My clients would like to actually make money for a change, this is what we’re doing. The policy is the policy. No unsolicited crypto stuff. You can only buy if the client instructs you. Clients must have the Crypto Risk letter on file with Compliance and all buy orders are to be marked unsolicited. That’s not my rule. That’s the firm rule. The firm is wrong. How much longer can you guys watch this happening without us? We’re constructive on blockchain as a theme. House view is bullish now. The house view is bullshit. The desk is trading for itself. Prime is trading it with hedge funds. Why can’t I trade it? You can. Unsolicited. Fuck you, Tommy. Fuck you too, John. You guys shoulda let me when the Blackstone ETF came out. That was at fifty thousand. We’re gonna break a hundred thousand and you got me sitting here like an asshole. BlackRock. What? The ETF. It’s BlackRock, not Blackstone. Fuck you. Fuck you. You know how dumb you’re making me look. It’s not me. You know how it works. Laura is CIO, you wanna try her again, be my guest. Laura’s too busy to return my call. She doesn’t know anything about crypto. It’s her team’s call. How many times we gotta do this. Because she can get on CNBC once a month it’s her call? That’s enough John. You suck. No you suck. We playing Sunday? Yeah, we have a 7am. Indian Hill. Thanks for nothing. See you later. https://www.downtownjoshbrown.com/p/scenes-from-a-regional-branch-at-97-000
Seanzy Posted November 25 Posted November 25 Yes, financial advisors are facing 2 major pain points about Bitcoin. First, it's too "risky" (too volatile). Second, it's too difficult to understand. Many advisors, even though they are fiduciaries, are reluctant to spend their time and energy to perform due diligence on Bitcoin on behalf of their clients. I believe it is their duty to do so. They don't want to risk being wrong because it requires them to stick their neck out and potentially disrupt their business' status quo. This is why my firm created the Bitcoin Picks and Shovels IRA Strategy . Our largest holding is MARA, which is up 60% this month. The strategy trades stocks and options related to Bitcoin for advisors and their clients. It also pay the advisor double the management fee they normally receive from clients. We make up for this by charging the client performance fees on the back end, but only if the client has positive returns or outperforms the benchmark. It's win-win. Clients benefit from indirect Bitcoin exposure that acts as an inflation hedge, without owning any Bitcoin directly. They also generate more income because we use options to capture volatility of the underlying stocks, such as MARA. I don't want to turn this into an unsolicited ad. Message me if anyone wants to learn more. We solve the above two pain points for advisors by providing free Bitcoin consulting to them and their clients every Tuesday night at 6:00 pm PST on Meetup.com. The strategy reduces the volatility of owning Bitcoin directly and improves the risk/return profiles of their overall portfolios by generating income. We are paying the advisors to solve their problems and do their investment management work for them. It's kind of hilarious, and completely unique. I used to provide trading, research, and operational support to a team of 3 financial advisors at the top branch of Wells Fargo Advisors, Private Client Group, in San Francisco. Now I run my own registered investment advisor firm. We are slowly gaining traction, but even independent advisors who don't need to worry about as many compliance issues regarding Bitcoin are overwhelmingly still reluctant to touch anything related to Bitcoin, including my firm's strategy, which solves their pain points. I am so grateful to all of you for your years of intelligent contributions on this forum and humbled by how hard running a business is.
SharperDingaan Posted November 25 Posted November 25 4 hours ago, james22 said: https://www.downtownjoshbrown.com/p/scenes-from-a-regional-branch-at-97-000 That's pretty damn good SD
K2SO Posted November 26 Posted November 26 On 11/25/2024 at 2:11 PM, Seanzy said: Many advisors, even though they are fiduciaries, are reluctant to spend their time and energy to perform due diligence on Bitcoin on behalf of their clients. I believe it is their duty to do so. There is no "due diligence" to be done. Just because you understand how the blockchain works, doesn't mean you can determine a fair value for Bitcoin. I believe it is my duty not to gamble with my clients' money. They are free to buy it on the side, and a lot of them do. But it's gambling, and in the same way I don't speculate in currencies and commodities, I don't speculate in crypto.
TwoCitiesCapital Posted November 26 Posted November 26 (edited) 2 hours ago, K2SO said: There is no "due diligence" to be done. Just because you understand how the blockchain works, doesn't mean you can determine a fair value for Bitcoin. I believe it is my duty not to gamble with my clients' money. They are free to buy it on the side, and a lot of them do. But it's gambling, and in the same way I don't speculate in currencies and commodities, I don't speculate in crypto. There are methodologies for modeling price, and predicting it, that aren't DCF. It's so tiring that most value investors approaches every investment with the same model. It's not appropriate for commodities - just because they can't be DCF'd doesn't mean that they're worthless and any non-zero price is speculative. Edited November 26 by TwoCitiesCapital
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