Cryptocurrencies

[Dave86ch]

Provoking thought.

 

What if, in a world where net producers are accumulating gold and selling USD debt, you invent an alternative to gold and convince the Western hemisphere through greed incentives to shift to it? This way, you prevent people from supporting the price of something you can no longer afford, creating a more compelling alternative.

Edited May 22 by Dave86ch

[Seanzy]

This is thought provoking indeed. Please add more details. Are you referring to Bitcoin and China disrupting the dollar hegemony, or am I misinterpreting?

[james22]

 

https://www.amazon.com/Softwar-Projection-National-Strategic-Significance/dp/B0BW358F37

[james22]

[james22]

[james22]

[james22]

Admin statement (opposing) on HR 4763 (regulatory structure for digital assets), but doesn't threaten to veto.

 

https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/SAP-HR4763.pdf

[ValueArb]

BTC could disappear tomorrow and it wouldn't affect US security one whit. Just another blue sky dreamer trying to find a use for the nearly useless blockchain that's already failed to find significant usage anywhere for the last decade, outside of ponzi coins and ponzi art.

[rkbabang]

If Bitcoin disappeared tomorrow it wouldn't affect US security one whit.  Unfortunately for US security Bitcoin isn't going anywhere.  If airplanes disappeared in the 19-teens they wouldn't have affected US security one Whit.

 

“Airplanes are interesting toys, but of no military value.”
General Ferdinand Foch, Supreme Allied Commander of WW1

[ValueArb]

29 minutes ago, rkbabang said:

If Bitcoin disappeared tomorrow it wouldn't affect US security one whit.  Unfortunately for US security Bitcoin isn't going anywhere.  If airplanes disappeared in the 19-teens they wouldn't have affected US security one Whit.

 

“Airplanes are interesting toys, but of no military value.”
General Ferdinand Foch, Supreme Allied Commander of WW1

 

Foch said that in 1911, seven years after the Wright brother's first flight. At the start of WW1, only three years later France had 134 pilots.  At the end of the war (only 14 years after the first flight) France had 18,000 pilots and had manufactured 50,000 military airplanes. Airplanes had increased in capabilities so much that it was critical to combined operations that won the war.

 

And what Foch said is a type of appeal to authority fallacy. It's fallacious because who cares what Foch thought? Whether planes had military value depended upon how capable they were, not Foch's opinion of them. His opinion may have been correct at the moment he said it,  given the limited range, flight duration, safety, high costs, maintenance requirements and lack of weaponry of the 1911 state of the art aeroplane. Whether he foresaw their rapid improvement or not, who knows?

 

Bitcoin is over 15 years old. The blockchain is even older. Instead of trying to post "gotchas" using appeal to authority fallacies, you might instead ponder why the blockchain hasn't found any significant usage outside of cryptocurrencies and NFTs in the last decade. Why is it being held back?

 

Is it like WW1 tanks, which were advocated by a small number of military leaders with extremely forward looking ideas, but nearly useless in actual WW1 battles? They were eventually proven right in the decades after. 

 

Or is it like extreme range guns such as Paris Gun and V-3, that always proved to be more trouble than they are worth, and ultimately replaced by missiles that could be much more accurate and reach much farther ranges? 

 

 

Edited May 22 by ValueArb

[rkbabang]

It wasn't an appeal to authority, it was simply a historical example of an authority getting something wrong.  An appeal to authority would be in the form:  "<X person> says your are wrong, so you are wrong."

 

This isn't as easy to see as dropping bombs from airplanes, because it is in a completely different domain.  The internet has been around for a few decades longer than Bitcoin and yet there hasn't been a major war with a major front taking place online yet.  It is simply my opinion that this happening is only a matter of time.

 

[james22]

I'm not going to be above saying "I told you so."

[james22]

 

[ValueArb]

5 hours ago, rkbabang said:

It wasn't an appeal to authority, it was simply a historical example of an authority getting something wrong.  An appeal to authority would be in the form:  "<X person> says your are wrong, so you are wrong."

 

Quote

An argument from authority (argumentum ab auctoritate), also called an appeal to authority, or argumentum ad verecundiam, is a form of argument in which the opinion of an influential figure is used as evidence to support an argument.^[1]

 

...This argument has been considered a logical fallacy since its introduction by John Locke and Richard Whately.^[9] In particular, this is a form of genetic fallacy; in which the conclusion about the validity of a statement is justified by appealing to the characteristics of the person who is speaking, such as in the ad hominem fallacy...

Other related logical fallacies

It is also a fallacious ad hominem argument to argue that a person presenting statements lacks authority and thus their arguments do not need to be considered.

 

It's a fallacy, whether it's identical to the appeal to authority, it's very similar in its argument using the falseness of another's opinion instead of facts. A failed prediction does nothing to disprove any other prediction. 

 

5 hours ago, rkbabang said:

 

This isn't as easy to see as dropping bombs from airplanes, because it is in a completely different domain.  The internet has been around for a few decades longer than Bitcoin and yet there hasn't been a major war with a major front taking place online yet.  It is simply my opinion that this happening is only a matter of time.

 

 

The point is that blockchain is older than the aeroplane was in 1919, yet hasn't found any significant economic application despite being in a world awash with the internet and modern technology. What else are we waiting for to put major government and commercial data on the blockchain?

 

I'd argue that we'll be waiting a long time since the slowest database in the world has no practical uses.

[TwoCitiesCapital]

1 hour ago, ValueArb said:

...yet hasn't found any significant economic application despite being in a world awash with the internet and modern technology. 

 

Cross-border remittances? Long-term store of value? Instant-payments via the lightning network? 

 

What other significant economic applications are you looking for that would it give it credibility and legitimacy that the above don't? 

[Dave86ch]

5 hours ago, ValueArb said:

The point is that blockchain is older than the aeroplane was in 1919, yet hasn't found any significant economic application despite being in a world awash with the internet and modern technology.

Tether is the 19th largest holder of US Treasuries, and USDT operates on the Ethereum VM.

 

They regularly reinvest their profits in Bitcoin.

 

The US might face some trouble if the blockchain were to disappear tomorrow.

 

There is a game theory at play in converting the old and unreliable US debt protocol for value into a fully digital money protocol for value.

 

It's a checkmate situation, and someone's denial does not change the facts.

Separating money from the state is never thought to be an easy task; it takes time.

Edited May 23 by Dave86ch

[rkbabang]

15 hours ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

 

Cross-border remittances? Long-term store of value? Instant-payments via the lightning network? 

 

What other significant economic applications are you looking for that would it give it credibility and legitimacy that the above don't? 

 

 

Bitcoin. It's easier on your rectum.

 

 

[ValueArb]

17 hours ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

 

Cross-border remittances? Long-term store of value? Instant-payments via the lightning network? 

 

What other significant economic applications are you looking for that would it give it credibility and legitimacy that the above don't? 

 

A long term store of value in something that has no intrinsic value, no cash flow, no dividends and every few  years drops 75% in price?

 

And "instant-payments"? Why do I need that when I have Zelle, Venmo, Cash App, etc? Last I checked, Lightning network was doing roughly a billion in annual volume in USD, while Zelle alone did nearly a trillion in USD in the last 12 months. If the Lightning network was so useful, why isn't it being used?

 

And is there any evidence that BTC is used for even 1% of world wide cross border remittances? Again, if its so useful why isn't it being used?

[james22]

8 minutes ago, ValueArb said:

Again, if its so useful why isn't it being used?

 

We're so early. 

[james22]

 

[fareastwarriors]

https://www.theblock.co/post/296304/sec-approves-ethereum-etfs

[TwoCitiesCapital]

3 hours ago, ValueArb said:

 

A long term store of value in something that has no intrinsic value, no cash flow, no dividends and every few  years drops 75% in price?

 

And "instant-payments"? Why do I need that when I have Zelle, Venmo, Cash App, etc? Last I checked, Lightning network was doing roughly a billion in annual volume in USD, while Zelle alone did nearly a trillion in USD in the last 12 months. If the Lightning network was so useful, why isn't it being used?

 

And is there any evidence that BTC is used for even 1% of world wide cross border remittances? Again, if its so useful why isn't it being used?

 

I use Venmo to send money to my account - takes 3 business days to get there.

 

I just got an insurance check for 65k for fire damage on my condo. Cashed the check? Bank has a hold on the funds for 10 days to make sure it doesn't bounce. 

 

Bitcoin? I can have confidence  is sent/received in less than 10 minutes for lower fees than a wire transfer. 

That's the benefit. 

 

How people don't see these problems in the current financial plumbing or fail to see Bitcoin can be superior to them is beyond me.

 

And that store of value you complain has fallen by 75% before? The USD has also fallen by 75%. As has gold on prior occasions. Bitcoin, despite its drops, has outperformed every single asset class (and damn near every individual investment) over the past 3, 5, and 10 year horizons - so yes - I consider that a solid long term store of value. 

Edited May 23 by TwoCitiesCapital

[TwoCitiesCapital]

Snow balls get bigger as they roll downhill...

 

[wachtwoord]

On 5/21/2024 at 8:11 PM, SharperDingaan said:

ETH will be approved for crypto ETF's simply because ETH provides a solid measure of diversification, and there are also CME options/futures available by which to hedge. Displace some of the global demand on BTC, and both the volatility of BTC and a crypto ETF portfolio declines. Not a bad thing, when attempting to get widespread IPS approvals for crypto holdings.

 

SD

 

 

ETH isnt a crypto. It never was. It's centralized crap.

[rkbabang]

On 5/23/2024 at 7:46 PM, TwoCitiesCapital said:

 

 

And that store of value you complain has fallen by 75% before? The USD has also fallen by 75%. As has gold on prior occasions. Bitcoin, despite its drops, has outperformed every single asset class (and damn near every individual investment) over the past 3, 5, and 10 year horizons - so yes - I consider that a solid long term store of value. 

And the drop in USD by far greater than 75%, more like 98%, is a permanent one that it will never recover from. In fact it is still dropping further year by year and no one expects it to ever stop dropping.