TwoCitiesCapital Posted December 31, 2025 Posted December 31, 2025 1 minute ago, brobro777 said: You're way better informed than me but the way the dental hygienist went on about crypto and online courses when I went to my Glendale dentist this month seemed like a pretty bad sign Online courses bro, oof Was he talking about crypto? Or BTC? Because I'm exclusively talking about BTC and view it as being far less speculative than other altcoins/shitcoins.
brobro777 Posted December 31, 2025 Posted December 31, 2025 5 minutes ago, TwoCitiesCapital said: Was he talking about crypto? Or BTC? Because I'm exclusively talking about BTC and view it as being far less speculative than other altcoins/shitcoins. The hygienist, she went on and on about crypto in general, not specifically BTC When I didn't have that suction thing in my mouth I kept telling her to cash out and walk away but she kept saying she believed in crypto But you're right about difference between shitcoins and BTC
Dave86ch Posted January 1 Posted January 1 (edited) Bitcoin is a difficult topic for most people to grasp. They remain trapped in price charts. For this reason, we need products like those built by MSTR and, in the future, yield-bearing stablecoins that generate stable returns while stripping away the natural volatility caused by price manipulation and animal emotions driven by a lack of rationality. In the end, sovereignty is something needed by only a few. By the way, I am fascinated by this. I checked the Russian source and it says exactly the same thing. Edited January 1 by Dave86ch
UK Posted January 1 Posted January 1 13 hours ago, brobro777 said: When I didn't have that suction thing in my mouth I kept telling her to cash out and walk away
SharperDingaan Posted January 1 Posted January 1 (edited) 20 hours ago, TwoCitiesCapital said: Similar to 2024s 9-month consolidation from February to November of prices largely being $60-70k before bouncing to $110k, I think the new range of $85-100k will be the range of a multi-month consolidation before the next leg up. Similar view, but more bearish on the downside; hedged via sale of 50% of our BTC-ETF holding at around 91.5K, that we hope to repurchase at around 81.5K. Lot of hopes riding on continuing US liquidity injections .... but until the other CB's step up as well, it's hard to see the next leg up. 85K implies that BRICs don't accelerate the dumping of US paper for gold, and that BTC Treasuries continue to hold versus sell BTC and buy back shares to capture the NAV discount. The natural buyers for forced sales of Venezuelan/Iranian gold holdings are the BRICs, which will further strain global liquidity ..... all it needs is one BTC Treasury sale that triggers a rush out the door SD Edited January 1 by SharperDingaan
TwoCitiesCapital Posted January 1 Posted January 1 2 hours ago, SharperDingaan said: Similar view, but more bearish on the downside; hedged via sale of 50% of our BTC-ETF holding at around 91.5K, that we hope to repurchase at around 81.5K. Lot of hopes riding on continuing US liquidity injections .... but until the other CB's step up as well, it's hard to see the next leg up. 85K implies that BRICs don't accelerate the dumping of US paper for gold, and that BTC Treasuries continue to hold versus sell BTC and buy back shares to capture the NAV discount. The natural buyers for forced sales of Venezuelan/Iranian gold holdings are the BRICs, which will further strain global liquidity ..... all it needs is one BTC Treasury sale that triggers a rush out the door SD I don't follow most of the Treasury companies, but I think selling BTC to buynack shares is the LAST thing Saylor will do. Before that, we'll see the issuance of debt and preferreds to finance buybacks just like he used them to finance BItcoin, but now the Bitcoin is being purchased at a discount via their shares
Paarslaars Posted January 1 Posted January 1 8 minutes ago, TwoCitiesCapital said: I don't follow most of the Treasury companies, but I think selling BTC to buynack shares is the LAST thing Saylor will do. Before that, we'll see the issuance of debt and preferreds to finance buybacks just like he used them to finance BItcoin, but now the Bitcoin is being purchased at a discount via their shares Discount to NAV needs to be substantial and consistent to make selling BTC for buybacks a viable accumulation strategy. He won't do it for at 0.95NAV nor if he thinks his buybacks will immediatly close the discount.
Fly Posted January 1 Posted January 1 9 hours ago, Dave86ch said: Bitcoin is a difficult topic for most people to grasp. They remain trapped in price charts. For this reason, we need products like those built by MSTR and, in the future, yield-bearing stablecoins that generate stable returns while stripping away the natural volatility caused by price manipulation and animal emotions driven by a lack of rationality. In the end, sovereignty is something needed by only a few. By the way, I am fascinated by this. I checked the Russian source and it says exactly the same thing. This is really incredible, and very interested to see how this plays out
SharperDingaan Posted January 1 Posted January 1 (edited) 1 hour ago, TwoCitiesCapital said: I don't follow most of the Treasury companies, but I think selling BTC to buynack shares is the LAST thing Saylor will do. Before that, we'll see the issuance of debt and preferreds to finance buybacks just like he used them to finance BItcoin, but now the Bitcoin is being purchased at a discount via their shares Agreed it's unlikely to be Saylor, but there are quite a few others accross the globe with higher cost bases and NAVs under 100%. As long as the BTC Treasury has a liquid market able to absorb the new paper issuance, everything is beautiful; but it assumes no contagion if/when the weaker treasuries have to sell some of their BTC. US trading takes its lead from Asia, where many of these weaker players are. Lends itself to contagion. Hopefully nothing happens, but if it does ... we're able to both use the opportunity, and take some $ out at the same time. Good luck. SD Edited January 1 by SharperDingaan
brobro777 Posted January 1 Posted January 1 11 hours ago, UK said: You know I always wondered, who the fuck buys these bullshit online courses - and yet there she was, scraping my teeth, going on about how she believes in crypto and telling me her friends bought that shit too If people like her and pension funds bought crypto, then who's left to buy....
TwoCitiesCapital Posted January 2 Posted January 2 2 hours ago, brobro777 said: You know I always wondered, who the fuck buys these bullshit online courses - and yet there she was, scraping my teeth, going on about how she believes in crypto and telling me her friends bought that shit too If people like her and pension funds bought crypto, then who's left to buy.... You.
brobro777 Posted January 2 Posted January 2 6 hours ago, TwoCitiesCapital said: You. Maybe, If da price is right and da juice returns!
SharperDingaan Posted January 5 Posted January 5 On 1/1/2026 at 11:52 AM, SharperDingaan said: Similar view, but more bearish on the downside; hedged via sale of 50% of our BTC-ETF holding at around 91.5K, that we hope to repurchase at around 81.5K. Lot of hopes riding on continuing US liquidity injections .... but until the other CB's step up as well, it's hard to see the next leg up. 85K implies that BRICs don't accelerate the dumping of US paper for gold, and that BTC Treasuries continue to hold versus sell BTC and buy back shares to capture the NAV discount. The natural buyers for forced sales of Venezuelan/Iranian gold holdings are the BRICs, which will further strain global liquidity ..... all it needs is one BTC Treasury sale that triggers a rush out the door SD Temporarily sold the remaining 50% of our BTC-ETF today at around 94K, to capitalise on the day's sell off of Canadian o/g small caps and mid caps. All goes well, the pair trade doesn't take as long to deliver this time around Good luck. SD
jfan Posted January 11 Posted January 11 (edited) https://bitbo.io/uptime Eyeballing it, looks like the network, if there are no downtimes, acheive 99.999% uptime reliability, in just over 27 years. Pretty amazing for a decentralized network to achieve what its achieved so far. Edited January 11 by jfan
TwoCitiesCapital Posted January 24 Posted January 24 (edited) So when the real patriots start shooting back and a civil war erupts between fascists and freedom fighters....how long can the USD remain the reserve currency even with no viable alternative? Edited January 24 by TwoCitiesCapital
SharperDingaan Posted January 26 Posted January 26 It has become worth the time to do a deep dive into the major demand and supply for BTC For what should be one of the preferred alternative stores of value to USD, when there is a clear need to be in other than USD, and gold/silver is soaring on the capital flight demand .... yet BTC can't even hold 90K? SD
gfp Posted January 26 Posted January 26 Seems that everyone everywhere is looking at the same bear flag as 2022 (very very similar price action) and waiting to see it resolve. Will this time be different? Beats me but let the price tell you
SharperDingaan Posted January 26 Posted January 26 (edited) Today; BTC is much more just a part of the larger tide, versus the tide itself. The more that garbage pollutes the well ... the lower BTC goes; and that garbage primarily relies upon liquidity within the US market. Sell the US .... isn't a good thing for BTC SD Edited January 26 by SharperDingaan
TwoCitiesCapital Posted January 26 Posted January 26 1 hour ago, SharperDingaan said: It has become worth the time to do a deep dive into the major demand and supply for BTC For what should be one of the preferred alternative stores of value to USD, when there is a clear need to be in other than USD, and gold/silver is soaring on the capital flight demand .... yet BTC can't even hold 90K? SD I am surprised by the comparative action, but silver and gold are moving for both fundamental and speculative reasons. I have a friend who is not in finance, but is somewhat savvy. More of a WSB type guy. Went to a junior metals conference last year and came out with a bunch of penny stock junior miners and call options on materials. He's doing well right now and rolling profits into more OTM calls. Doesn't know what half the companies do, they're breakeven rates for production, timelines to start producing, etc. Better to be lucky than good. I doubt he's the only one seeing/benefitting from the price action and driving more flows/gamma into the space. I'd expect, at some point, a fairly dramatic correction if for nothing else than shaking leverage out of the system. Then we'll see where gold/silver land for a longer term trend. And those speculative/gambling mentalities may then return to BTC if it ever manages to get interesting to them again.
TwoCitiesCapital Posted January 26 Posted January 26 1 hour ago, gfp said: Seems that everyone everywhere is looking at the same bear flag as 2022 (very very similar price action) and waiting to see it resolve. Will this time be different? Beats me but let the price tell you The tag and rejection of short term holder averages was definitely a cause for technical concern That being said, I've been saying for awhile id believe the 4-year cycle was broken when it broke. And I'm thinking we've been witnessing that. First cycle where new ATHs were made pre-halving. First cycle where post-halving year was flat/negative. First cycle where there was no blow-off top. So why not have it be the first cycle that extends beyond 4-years w/ no 80% drawdown?
SharperDingaan Posted January 26 Posted January 26 (edited) 32 minutes ago, TwoCitiesCapital said: I am surprised by the comparative action, but silver and gold are moving for both fundamental and speculative reasons. Keep in mind that BTC primarily moves on technical analysis .... 'cause the fundamental analysis ain't so hot; whereas with gold, not so much Alt coin if you can't afford BTC, silver if you can't afford gold. Everybody can tell you what will happen if BTC breaks below 'X' .... but almost no one can tell you why. Exploitable SD Edited January 26 by SharperDingaan
Charlie Posted January 26 Posted January 26 9 minutes ago, SharperDingaan said: Keep in mind that BTC primarily moves on technical analysis .... 'cause the fundamental analysis ain't so hot; whereas with gold, not so much Alt coin if you can't afford BTC, silver if you can't afford gold. Everybody can tell you what will happen if BTC breaks below 'X' .... but almost no one can tell you why. Exploitable SD I remember an old Buffett interview before the dot.com crash. The headline was: "Don´t stare at the charts." The only thing a chart is telling you is a lot of price movements. Nothing about value. I would agree with Buffett advice, especially if the chart is parabolic upward and there is no value. What is good is when the price of something is down, down, down or long-term sidewards and there is a lot of value. Buffett: "Don´t stare at the charts."
gfp Posted January 26 Posted January 26 1 minute ago, Charlie said: I remember an old Buffett interview before the dot.com crash. The headline was: "Don´t stare at the charts." The only thing a chart is telling you is a lot of price movements. Nothing about value. I would agree with Buffett advice, especially if the chart is parabolic upward and there is no value. What is good is when the price of something is down, down, down or long-term sidewards and there is a lot of value. Buffett: "Don´t stare at the charts." What does any of that have to do with Bitcoins?
Charlie Posted January 26 Posted January 26 1 hour ago, gfp said: What does any of that have to do with Bitcoins? @gfp SharperDingaan wrote that BTC primarily moves on technical analysis, cause the fundamental analysis ain´t so hot. And when Buffett says that technical analysis does not work, I´m a little bit suspicious about it.
TwoCitiesCapital Posted January 26 Posted January 26 58 minutes ago, Charlie said: @gfp SharperDingaan wrote that BTC primarily moves on technical analysis, cause the fundamental analysis ain´t so hot. And when Buffett says that technical analysis does not work, I´m a little bit suspicious about it. Buffett also doesn't like things without cash flows like Gold or Bitcoin and his DCF type analysis doesn't work on them. And despite that, both have outperformed US equities, generally, for an extended period of time. So maybe there's more to consider than just Buffett's wisdom
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