Cryptocurrencies

[gfp]

Don't forget to entertain the possibility that you don't get it.  

[rkbabang]

29 minutes ago, gfp said:

Don't forget to entertain the possibility that you don't get it.  

 

Of course.  I obviously don't think I'm wrong.  I thought Krugman was an idiot when I first read that quote in the late 90's and I think Munger is just as wrong now.  I think history has proven me correct about the internet and I think it will eventually prove me correct about bitcoin.  But of course I could be mistaken.  Munger doesn't seem to have the humility to think that he could be wrong, he just wants governments to use violence to go after something he doesn't like.

 

[gfp]

5 minutes ago, rkbabang said:

 

Of course.  I obviously don't think I'm wrong.  I thought Krugman was an idiot when I first read that quote in the late 90's and I think Munger is just as wrong now.  I think history has proven me correct about the internet and I think it will eventually prove me correct about bitcoin.  But of course I could be mistaken.  Munger doesn't seem to have the humility to think that he could be wrong, he just wants governments to use violence to go after something he doesn't like.

 

 

That's good you are staying humble.  There is so much absolutism that I hear from Cryptocurrency owners that it makes me wince.  It's all so obvious to them.  There are so many ways people can end up losing big on these digital assets.  Governments are just one possibility.

[rkbabang]

15 minutes ago, gfp said:

 

That's good you are staying humble.  There is so much absolutism that I hear from Cryptocurrency owners that it makes me wince.  It's all so obvious to them.  There are so many ways people can end up losing big on these digital assets.  Governments are just one possibility.

 

 

I've been wrong enough times in my life to know that I'm not infallible.   The great thing about investing is that it's hard to lie to yourself.  When you are correct you make money and when you are wrong you lose money.  It's pretty hard to say, "Yeah, I lost 90% of my investment, but I still think that I was correct".

 

[Castanza]

Have to admit....anytime I hear Munger, Dalio, Dimon or any other "financial expert" pop off about Bitcoin with a seemingly uneducated opinion it just makes me want to buy a bunch. 

[TwoCitiesCapital]

2 hours ago, Castanza said:

Have to admit....anytime I hear Munger, Dalio, Dimon or any other "financial expert" pop off about Bitcoin with a seemingly uneducated opinion it just makes me want to buy a bunch. 

 

Same. 

 

My company did a recent presentation for a bunch of financial advisors. One of the advisors asked if we'd be including BTC on our models and the presenters kind of laughed it off, mentioned the risk, and nodded to it's -80% peak-to-trough performance. 

 

Not one of the mentioned that it had still outperformed every other asset class on the board over a 3-year and 5-year horizon despite the dip. 

 

If these are the people we're letting inform the masses on BTC, the opportunity will be here for awhile. Load up my friend. 

[Dave86ch]

11 hours ago, Castanza said:

Have to admit....anytime I hear Munger, Dalio, Dimon or any other "financial expert" pop off about Bitcoin with a seemingly uneducated opinion it just makes me want to buy a bunch. 

Ahahahah Same and it is what I do , in the meantime the mayor of my city in Switzerland is promoting Bitcoin like a crazy, against everyone.

I imagine the sneaky reasons behind is crusade and it makes tons of sense.

Edited February 8, 2023 by Dave86ch

[texual]

Sometimes I must step back from the overly complicated visionary twitter bitcoin people. I'd say they're most similar to the people who were making prognostications about the internet in its infancy. Like predictions of what it could be or do in 10-20-30 years. I suspect a lot of it was infused with religious themes, concepts that were alien at the time - some of it turns out right and some of it wrong. Heres what I'll say - in The Bitcoin Standard the closest analogy to btc are rai stones of the yap islands. I spent considerable time on that subject and now all I would tell someone about bitcoin is not to go all in to the metaphoric, social and political aspects and just consider the rai stone. 

 

Do you like the rai stone concept of scarcity, work/labor and public transparency? yes? bitcoin is basically the 21st century version of that. there is a absolute finite supply and that can also help people understand the benefits when compared to fiat money supply. And so when I'm on twitter and people are going into why bitcoin is truth and mathematics and a goddess I can understand why this may be a turnoff. 

Edited February 8, 2023 by texual

[rkbabang]

2 hours ago, texual said:

Sometimes I must step back from the overly complicated visionary twitter bitcoin people. I'd say they're most similar to the people who were making prognostications about the internet in its infancy. Like predictions of what it could be or do in 10-20-30 years. I suspect a lot of it was infused with religious themes, concepts that were alien at the time - some of it turns out right and some of it wrong. Heres what I'll say - in The Bitcoin Standard the closest analogy to btc are rai stones of the yap islands. I spent considerable time on that subject and now all I would tell someone about bitcoin is not to go all in to the metaphoric, social and political aspects and just consider the rai stone. 

 

Do you like the rai stone concept of scarcity, work/labor and public transparency? yes? bitcoin is basically the 21st century version of that. there is a absolute finite supply and that can also help people understand the benefits when compared to fiat money supply. And so when I'm on twitter and people are going into why bitcoin is truth and mathematics and a goddess I can understand why this may be a turnoff. 

 

Well yeah, never go completely into any quasi-religious group of people obsessing about anything (value investing / Buffet-Munger worshipers included).  As people become less religious in the traditional sense there is a type of personality that looks for someone or something else to deify and get all fundamentalist about.  I don't want to bring politics into it, but you can see it there very easily, the more likely someone is to be a so-called "atheist" the more likely they are to practically worship the state as the god that can do/create/accomplish anything with a word (I'm looking at you Dawkins).  Same with the bitcoin worshipers or any of the many people/things/groups some people worship.  There is a type of person, for example, who will never give a moments thought to crypto because their god who can never be wrong called it "rat poison".   It's usually best to not get bogged down with these people on any topic.  Once you spot them they are easy to recognize.

 

[texual]

Fully agree. Humans are for all intents and purposes tribal.

Sports teams. Your political party. Your console. Religion. When one wanes another one waxes. Its just the way of things. We always look up to something higher, idolize or move from one pole to another. Doubtful even the best of us will be free of subjective idolatry and the like. Just always go for the more profitable ones. Or diversify into enough Gods that you wind up with the Messiah

 

[Dave86ch]

Myths have always been useful to our species,

as they provide us with the opportunity to collaborate on a large scale.

Myths and stories are networks.

[rkbabang]

5 hours ago, Dave86ch said:

Myths have always been useful to our species,

as they provide us with the opportunity to collaborate on a large scale.

Myths and stories are networks.

 

It also gives us the opportunity to profit from the beliefs of others.  Don't be part of the flock, be the preacher living in a 15,000 sqft mansion.   Don't be the voter, be the guy selling the state $10,000 screwdrivers, or invest in the company that does.   Don't worship Satashi and his blockchain, but recognize that belief in others and add some to your portfolio.

I don't always succeed, but I try as hard as I can to be an atheist in all things.

 

“belief is the death of intelligence.”
― Robert Anton Wilson

 

“I don't believe anything, but I have many suspicions.”

― Robert Anton Wilson

 

[Castanza]

16 minutes ago, rkbabang said:

 

It also gives us the opportunity to profit from the beliefs of others.  Don't be part of the flock, be the preacher living in a 15,000 sqft mansion.   Don't be the voter, be the guy selling the state $10,000 screwdrivers, or invest in the company that does.   Don't worship Satashi and his blockchain, but recognize that belief in others and add some to your portfolio.

I don't always succeed, but I try as hard as I can to be an atheist in all things.

 

“belief is the death of intelligence.”
― Robert Anton Wilson

 

“I don't believe anything, but I have many suspicions.”

― Robert Anton Wilson

 

 

This is why I can and can't listen to Saylor. Recently listened to the Lex Fridman podcast with him as a guest. At one point he sounds very reasonable describing the utility of BTC in a global economy, the problems with fiat and trust, etc......then he starts droning on about the weight of energy and how everything is vibrating at some frequency and moving blocks of energy instantly......Somehow this relates to BTC at some deep level....not sure. But he sounds like a cult leader at times when he starts going down that road. Maybe my semi smooth chestnut sized brain simply can't comprehend it. 

 

To me BTC is interesting because it's digital gold, incorruptible, anonymous, scarce, easily transportable, borderless etc.  

 

These past few weeks it definitely seems like the powers at be are discussing it more and more. You had Kevin McCarthy bring it up yesterday. You've got the UK looking into CBDC. Sounded pretty Orwellian if you read through the docs. 

 

I also think a lot of people who don't like BTC (including myself to a degree) get hung up because their view is primarily US based. My brother in law who has a company is Laos uses BTC pretty frequently because the govt over there could at any point in time take his business. So it's a means of protecting some assets.  

[rkbabang]

2 minutes ago, Castanza said:

 

This is why I can and can't listen to Saylor. Recently listened to the Lex Fridman podcast with him as a guest. At one point he sounds very reasonable describing the utility of BTC in a global economy, the problems with fiat and trust, etc......then he starts droning on about the weight of energy and how everything is vibrating at some frequency and moving blocks of energy instantly......Somehow this relates to BTC at some deep level....not sure. But he sounds like a cult leader at times when he starts going down that road. Maybe my semi smooth chestnut sized brain simply can't comprehend it. 

 

To me BTC is interesting because it's digital gold, incorruptible, anonymous, scarce, easily transportable, borderless etc.  

 

These past few weeks it definitely seems like the powers at be are discussing it more and more. You had Kevin McCarthy bring it up yesterday. You've got the UK looking into CBDC. Sounded pretty Orwellian if you read through the docs. 

 

I also think a lot of people who don't like BTC (including myself to a degree) get hung up because their view is primarily US based. My brother in law who has a company is Laos uses BTC pretty frequently because the govt over there could at any point in time take his business. So it's a means of protecting some assets.  

 

 

Would you rather own a useful asset that many people worship or a useful asset that nobody worships?   People worshiped gold at times too and look how long that remained valuable to humans.   That said, you don't need to spend a lot of time listening to the preachers, you just need to understand that they exist, and in large numbers.

 

[Castanza]

3 minutes ago, rkbabang said:

 

 

Would you rather own a useful asset that many people worship or a useful asset that nobody worships?   People worshiped gold at times too and look how long that remained valuable to humans.   That said, you don't need to spend a lot of time listening to the preachers, you just need to understand that they exist, and in large numbers.

 

Yeah that makes sense. I’d say the preachers are a two sided coin for adoption. But the more I read the more this whole “thing” feels like the top of the first inning. 

[wachtwoord]

On 2/8/2023 at 3:24 PM, rkbabang said:

 

Well yeah, never go completely into any quasi-religious group of people obsessing about anything (value investing / Buffet-Munger worshipers included).  As people become less religious in the traditional sense there is a type of personality that looks for someone or something else to deify and get all fundamentalist about.  I don't want to bring politics into it, but you can see it there very easily, the more likely someone is to be a so-called "atheist" the more likely they are to practically worship the state as the god that can do/create/accomplish anything with a word (I'm looking at you Dawkins).  Same with the bitcoin worshipers or any of the many people/things/groups some people worship.  There is a type of person, for example, who will never give a moments thought to crypto because their god who can never be wrong called it "rat poison".   It's usually best to not get bogged down with these people on any topic.  Once you spot them they are easy to recognize.

 

 

This. And worship of the state is much more dangerous than worship of a non-existing diety can ever be.

 

I am an atheist* but prefer most people in the society I live in to be religious. Sadly, not many posses the emotional maturity to be responsible for their own morality and choices in life and the average morality of the main stream religions is closer to mine than most (any?) of the states. Not to mention they are a hell of a lot more stable.

 

When you get a large majority of atheists you get communism. At least at the current emotional maturity level. 

 

*in the sense that an almighty being cannot exist within the universe it's supposed to be almighty in.

[wachtwoord]

On 2/8/2023 at 9:17 AM, Dave86ch said:

Ahahahah Same and it is what I do , in the meantime the mayor of my city in Switzerland is promoting Bitcoin like a crazy, against everyone.

I imagine the sneaky reasons behind is crusade and it makes tons of sense.

 

Do you just mean Zug or a smaller municipality?

[GentlemenPreferBonds]

I'm in Munger's camp on bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. The space is full of fraudsters and the gullible. Both sides don't understand finance let alone currency. Classic case of blind leading the blind. Its hilarious when people compare this to  the internet. Internet became useful first (email, websites) and the mania followed. Bitcoin/Crypto has no real use case for almost a decade and a half other than drug dealers or desperate third world citizens trying to transfer money into guess what US dollars. 

What's funny is that the crypto industry complaining that US is trying to cut them off from the banking aka "off chain ramp". What an injustice that these believers can't convert their "real" currency into fiat !! Hopefully a bank or two goes down due to crypto and we'll stop this idiocy from spreading into other sectors.

[Dave86ch]

On 2/10/2023 at 4:31 PM, Castanza said:

 

This is why I can and can't listen to Saylor. Recently listened to the Lex Fridman podcast with him as a guest. At one point he sounds very reasonable describing the utility of BTC in a global economy, the problems with fiat and trust, etc......then he starts droning on about the weight of energy and how everything is vibrating at some frequency and moving blocks of energy instantly......Somehow this relates to BTC at some deep level....not sure. But he sounds like a cult leader at times when he starts going down that road. Maybe my semi smooth chestnut sized brain simply can't comprehend it. 

 

To me BTC is interesting because it's digital gold, incorruptible, anonymous, scarce, easily transportable, borderless etc.  

 

These past few weeks it definitely seems like the powers at be are discussing it more and more. You had Kevin McCarthy bring it up yesterday. You've got the UK looking into CBDC. Sounded pretty Orwellian if you read through the docs. 

 

I also think a lot of people who don't like BTC (including myself to a degree) get hung up because their view is primarily US based. My brother in law who has a company is Laos uses BTC pretty frequently because the govt over there could at any point in time take his business. So it's a means of protecting some assets.  

 

I partially agree with you, but I wouldnt underestimate Saylor. I have listened to him many time and its poetic vision isn't necessarily madness.

[Dave86ch]

14 hours ago, wachtwoord said:

 

*in the sense that an almighty being cannot exist within the universe it's supposed to be almighty in.

 

I'm agnostic and I thought about this point many time, other than that I believe in determinism and free will is the fundation of Christianity at least.

[Dave86ch]

14 hours ago, wachtwoord said:

 

Do you just mean Zug or a smaller municipality?

 

Lugano, is the main city in the south part, where we speak italian.

[Castanza]

3 hours ago, GentlemenPreferBonds said:

I'm in Munger's camp on bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. The space is full of fraudsters and the gullible. Both sides don't understand finance let alone currency. Classic case of blind leading the blind. Its hilarious when people compare this to  the internet. Internet became useful first (email, websites) and the mania followed. Bitcoin/Crypto has no real use case for almost a decade and a half other than drug dealers or desperate third world citizens trying to transfer money into guess what US dollars. 

What's funny is that the crypto industry complaining that US is trying to cut them off from the banking aka "off chain ramp". What an injustice that these believers can't convert their "real" currency into fiat !! Hopefully a bank or two goes down due to crypto and we'll stop this idiocy from spreading into other sectors.

10,000 years of humanity and for only 200 some odd years we have had the stock market. Is this the end all be all in your opinion? This is the perpetual motion machine that will drive humanity forward for the rest of eternity? Further it’s only been 50 years since we haven’t had a currency backed by a hard asset. 
 

No disrespect, but even if you have no clue what crypto is; it’s extremely naive to believe that the financial systems will not change again. It’s also extremely naive to ignore the clear problems with current MMT and debt financed banking. This system is doomed to fail at some point. The alternative may or may not be crypto.
 

If crypto is such “idiocy” then why is every central bank in existence exploring options? 
 

Lastly crypto (shit coins) =/= Bitcoin. They are two different classes at this point.

 

If you’re going to argue against crypto then at least be more creative than “this is how it is now and how it will always be”. I’m still skeptical myself primarily due to government intervention. But the technology itself IS as solid as can be.  
 

I’ve listed a personal anecdotal use case above about a family member. But yeah! F$&& all those people stuck in third world countries living under tyranny day in and day out.….how dare they look for alternatives. 

[wachtwoord]

1 hour ago, Dave86ch said:

 

I'm agnostic and I thought about this point many time, other than that I believe in determinism and free will is the fundation of Christianity at least.

 

Then how can you be agnostic? A almighty being existing within the universe its almighty in automatically leads to (internal) contradiction.

 

Wrt determinism: the current theory of super-determinism is a fun theory (far from the most "popular" one though).

[wachtwoord]

1 hour ago, Dave86ch said:

 

Lugano, is the main city in the south part, where we speak italian.

 

Ah that's a big gemeinde then. The capital of Tessin (Ticino in your language). Cool!

 

I like how politics is organized in Switzerland. Better than anywhere else at this point in time as far as I can tell.

[TwoCitiesCapital]

1 hour ago, Castanza said:

But yeah! F$&& all those people stuck in third world countries living under tyranny day in and day out.….how dare they look for alternatives. 

 

This is what most people from the Western perspective are missing. 

 

4 years ago it was almost laughable for them to consider that anyone would use BTC as a currency. Now they're having to dilute the argument by saying it's only "shit-hole" countries. Of course it is! They'll be the first! They have the most to gain and the least to lose.

 

Today their options predominantly are to use their own depreciating fiat currencies or peg to the USD. 

 

But pegging to the USD comes with its own form of enslavement - we load them up with debt, use the IMF and the World Bank loan incentives to reorganize their economies until they are exporters of raw materials and reliant on imports of food, and we never forgive the debt when they can't repay - we just extend more financing to keep them financially enslaved. 

 

And let's not forget that we threaten them with sanctions or military invasions when they fail to toe the line. What's not to love about the USD system for them? Why seek alternatives?!?!

 

BTC works as a long-term store of wealth which is the first precondition to becoming a transactional currency and unit of account. Technological innovations that allow BTC to scale transactions and speed have already been developed and are gaining traction. That plus some stabilization of it's price at a sufficiently high market cap may allow it to compete as a currency in day-to-day transactions. That is the next test that we'll see unfold as more and more countries do adopt concurrently with their own fiat. 

Edited February 11, 2023 by TwoCitiesCapital