What are you betting against today?

[WayWardCloud]

Since we already have very popular "What are you buying today?" and "What are you selling today?" threads I thought I'd start this one because I'm curious to hear how everyone is incorporating puts and shorts into their strategy if at all. The market has been on a tear lately and I don't feel like any of the stuff I own is particularly overvalued but it would be nice to have a little bit of a cushion on the downside when the inevitable future rough times hit us someday.

 

I'll start!

 

2.4% of my portfolio is currently on TSLA Sept20'24 $220 Puts

 

Thesis:

- valuation of a tech company but it's a car maker

- In China and Europe they're already just one of the many makers because they started late (Europe) and the competition is better (China). This fact hasn't sipped through US investors yet because Tesla has enjoyed pretty much a monopoly here in NA forever. I believe homegrown competition is finally coming in '24 and '25 and that Tesla's share of EV sold in NA should go from 90%+ a few years ago to 70% today to ~50% in the next two years. More importantly, their margins will have to drop as well. We're already seeing them slashing prices left and right so they can keep up with their aggressive revenue growth plans. They have never been demand constrained and whenever they'll hit that wall things will get ugly.

- Musk has managed to antagonize both the left and the right.

- He's been selling his shares while creating value outside of Tesla for a few years now.

- Very limited line up, two cars, and a very minimalist interior style that's not necessarily everyone's preference. People want choice.

- They just gave up their one competitive advantage by opening their charging network to competitors.

- I'm a self driving tech nerd and FSD is an amazing drivers assist but I guarantee it will never be able to change existing cars into autonomous taxis.

 

Tactic:

I'm planning on selling my puts at a gain if Tesla's price lowers enough (or grows into its valuation) to trade at a still rich EV/EBITDA of 20 to 23. Currently we're at 41 and the trough of last December was at 14. Another reason to sell would be Fear&Greed index <40 (Currently 81) no matter the price. I figured if during fearful times people still don't let this one drop like a stone they never will and I should give up.

 

If neither of those happen before expiration I will lose my money but it should mean that the rest of my portfolio has done very well.

I think of puts more as a fire insurance on my house than as something that will make me rich.

The holy grail being of course to win on both fronts but I'm very aware the tide tends to lift/lowers all boats. This one boat just looks particularly stupidly bloated compared to its little comrades so I'm hoping to capture some of the difference.

 

I should add that I used to own some NVDA Dec'23 $250 puts

This was based on their EV/EBITDA ratio of 70 at the time + AI hype.

It represented about 1.5% of the portfolio and I sold them all at a loss of ~65% after the monster earnings last quarter pushed the stock to $400 while still lowering the valuation a lot.

Big failure on my part. Could be a good bet now, I don't know, I'm pretty dumb so I try at least not to get burned twice by the same flame and moved on.

 

Looking forward to reading your comments!

 

Edited June 16, 2023 by WayWardCloud

[brobro777]

Despite recent action I still think the decades long run in big cap tech is over - but I wouldn't short because I could turn out to be totally wrong, I'm too much of a coward and I don't think I could get the timing right

 

All of those alt coin cryptos are weak and will probably continue to grind down but those could get squeezed hard so it's probably better to stay away altogether

 

[Gregmal]

The one thing that 100% of the time losses value over time. 

[brobro777]

I remember getting bearish in 2006 and putting on short positions only to get kicked in the face again and again as the markets kept grinding higher into 2007

 

I kept shorting for some insane reason and by 2009 I came out okay because I got stupidly lucky (it really is better to be lucky than good) but realized there had to be less painful ways to make money

 

I still dream of shorting VA Linux at the open on IPO though. I dream... 

[dipod]

QQQ Dec 2023 puts. Up 40% already this year. I just wonder how likely it is to keep rising. Also lost some sums on NVDA puts. I'll probably jump in again but with longer duration puts (2025 for example). Also considering TSLA. Sometimes I wonder if the inverse issues that track these names make more sense. NVDS for example is a good one with NVDA. Decay seems to be the major qualm here. SQQQ may also make sense.

Edited June 16, 2023 by dipod

[Spekulatius]

39 minutes ago, dipod said:

QQQ Dec 2023 puts. Up 40% already this year. I just wonder how likely it is to keep rising. Also lost some sums on NVDA puts. I'll probably jump in again but with longer duration puts (2025 for example). Also considering TSLA. Sometimes I wonder if the inverse issues that track these names make more sense. NVDS for example is a good one with NVDA. Decay seems to be the major qualm here. SQQQ may also make sense.

I have a few Nov 2023 QQQ puts. Same idea.

[Gregmal]

Man, everyones so bullish!

[Spekulatius]

5 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Man, everyones so bullish!

I am bullish in other threads, but not here.

[Red Lion]

I have some October bear spreads on BAM more as a slight hedge than anything else. 

[ValueArb]

I don't do much (any) shorting but Carvana is up roughly 8x in 6 months. Did it finally turn profitable? Nope, Q1 operating loss was $130M (company description: one of our best quarters ever!). Did they eliminate their solvency risks? Nope, it's shareholder equity has increased to a NEGATIVE $1.3B. They have over $8B in debt, and $488M in cash. Their current assets are mostly inventories and finance receivables.

 

The reason it's popped is that the company announced that Q2 will be even better. Will it be profitable? Well if you think $50M in EBITDA is kind of like a profit, sure! Not if you notice that $150M in quarterly interest payments though.

[tede02]

When I realized NVDA was selling for around 40X SALES, I bought one Jan 2025 far out of the money put just for kicks. 

[Luke]

14 hours ago, tede02 said:

When I realized NVDA was selling for around 40X SALES, I bought one Jan 2025 far out of the money put just for kicks. 

Good luck!!